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Brexit

Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

956 replies

RedToothBrush · 31/01/2021 13:58

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

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FatCatThinCat · 11/02/2021 10:06

You can't help her @EchoElephant she's joined a cult. My mum is thet same. If the Daily Mail says it's true then it's true regardless of evidence. She even stated that brexit was needed to stop the UK going the way of Sweden because in Sweden women can no longer walk the streets safely on their own. She'd been to Sweden to visit me just a few weeks before and admitted that she felt perfectly safe the entire time. However, the Daily Mail said it was unsafe, so it was unsafe. End of. Literally denying the evidence of her own eyes.

We no longer have any contact.

EchoElephant · 11/02/2021 10:12

My parents have been anti-EU for as long as I can remember. They have their reasons and can usually discuss them without the craziness of 'the French are out to get us'.
But their arguments have become increasingly desperate and quite mad as Brexit has gone along.
As well as the Telegraph, they like the Dail Mail. Says it all, really.

DGRossetti · 11/02/2021 10:12

I thought I caught this phrase last night ... seems there's some gamesmanship going on ...

10/ Sefcovic says his is convinced these are "teething troubles, for which we should be able to find swift solutions" through the EU-UK Joint Committee

DGRossetti · 11/02/2021 10:25

What's not to like ?

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/10/dont-cut-city-bailey-warns-brussels/

EU poised to lock Britain out of its banking market, Andrew Bailey warns

Bank of England Governor warns that millions of households could face higher finance costs

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that the European Union is poised to lock Britain out of its vast banking market, in a move that would push up the cost of finance for millions of consumers on both sides of the Channel.

Mr Bailey said that Brussels would be making a mistake if it refuses to grant access for the City - with serious repercussions for ordinary people.

The decision could drive mortgage interest rates higher, land businesses which trade internationally with more expensive currency deals, and hit households with steeper insurance premiums as everyday financial products depend on activity in big international markets.

In response to a question from the Telegraph after a speech to finance chiefs, Mr Bailey said: “Is the EU going to cut the UK off from itself? There are signs of the intention to do so at the moment, but I think that would be a mistake. I think that would lead to the fragmentation of markets.

“The problem with the fragmentation of markets is that it raises the cost of finance for everybody, including by the way the citizens of the EU. It will raise the cost of doing business in the EU, so I think it is a mistake."

The remarks are a significant escalation in the row over UK regulators' determination to set their own finance rules after Brexit.

They come amid frantic diplomatic efforts to resolve tensions over trade arrangements for Northern Ireland, with a senior EU official on Wednesday night appearing to rule out major changes.

Ahead of a crunch meeting in London with Michael Gove on Thursday, Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission vice-president, appeared to acknowledge that grace periods handed to supermarkets, chilled meat importers and parcel couriers could be extended.

But in a letter responding to Mr Gove’s request for the special arrangements to be extended until January 2023, he suggested that they would need to remain temporary and that supply chains would ultimately need to adjust to full customs checks.

Hitting back at criticism from the UK over the EU’s approach to the new system, he also highlighted areas where he claimed the Government was not yet living up to its commitments.

On Tuesday night Whitehall sources reacted cautiously to the letter, noting that Mr Sefcovic had not rejected the UK’s proposals outright.

In his speech, Mr Bailey pointed out that Brussels is attempting to force Britain to follow tougher rules on finance than those applied to other trading partners such as the US and Switzerland. The Governor said that the EU would never accept such demands if asked to follow them itself.

He said: “I cannot really tell you where the EU is going to come out on this, but I’m afraid a world in which the EU dictates and determines what rules and standards we have in the UK is not going to work.

“We have to state the argument for why it is important to have global standards, global markets and safe openness. If we all sign up to that, then there isn't a need to go in that direction."

London was shut out of the single market when the post-Brexit transition period ended last year, severing links with the Continent. Much of this access could be restored through the EU's so-called equivalence regime, but Brussels is dragging its heels over giving permission for this in key areas.

The City is a major global financial centre, dominating the world’s multi-trillion dollar currency markets and far out-ranking other hubs in Europe. Financial services contributed £132bn to the British economy in 2019, a prize which has been jealously eyed by EU politicians.

A centre of such scale must be able to set its own rules, the Governor said, within the worldwide framework which has grown in importance since the financial crisis.

So far the UK has granted the EU “equivalence” status to access British markets in several areas, while the EU has reciprocated in only very few, despite offering more access to other countries around the world.

In his Financial and Professional Services Address, Mr Bailey said: “It would be reasonable to think that a common framework of global standards combined with the common basis of the rules – since the UK transposed EU rules from the outset – would be enough to base equivalence on global standards. Less than this was enough when Canada, the US, Australia, Hong Kong and Brazil were all deemed equivalent.

“The EU has argued it must better understand how the UK intends to amend or alter the rules going forwards. This is a standard that the EU holds no other country to and would, I suspect, not agree to be held to itself.”

This stance only makes sense, he said, if rules are either not allowed to change - which Mr Bailey calls “unrealistic, dangerous and inconsistent with practice” - or if Britain has to get Brussels’ permission to change the rules, which “is not acceptable”.

The Governor said he did not want “a low regulation, high risk, anything goes financial centre and system”, but that it was important rules could be improved.

UK regulations could be changed to free small, UK-only banks from onerous rules designed for big international lenders, he said - something which is common practice in the US and Switzerland, which are still deemed to be equivalent by the EU.

Mr Bailey added: “We have an opportunity to move forward and rebuild our economies, post Covid, supported by our financial systems. Now is not the time to have a regional argument."

Meanwhile the Governor is expected to face further questions in a letter from MPs on the Treasury select committee after clashing with a former judge over evidence he gave at a hearing on Monday.

Dame Elizabeth Gloster, a former judge who authored a damning report into the response of the City regulator to the London Capital and Finance scandal under Mr Bailey’s leadership, said she disagreed with parts of the Governor’s testimony.

She insisted that the Governor was wrong when he told MPs he did not try to avoid being named as an individual with responsibility for failings at the Financial Conduct Authority. Mr Bailey had said his request was only in respect of findings of culpability of blame.

Dame Elizabeth declined to comment on how she believes the committee should respond to the conflict between her evidence and Mr Bailey’s but her spokesman said she was “happy to support the committee as needed with its inquiry”

Whitehall sources said that Mr Gove was expected to stress the need for “urgent progress” on Northern Ireland, and for the EU to recognise the problems being felt by businesses and people living in the region.

There are growing fears that some food producers have halted exports to the region due to new red tape.

The Government is understood to be considering introducing legislation that would force large businesses to export to all parts of the UK, in order to stop firms giving up on Northern Ireland.

ListeningQuietly · 11/02/2021 10:57

EchoElephant
AS with all things, there are grains of truth in what your mum says.
It is French customs in Dover who are doing the checking
hence why lorries are having to go through the pre check process
But it is NOT obstruction
it is because the French are obeying WTO rules by treating all 3rd party countries equally.

At the moment the UK is breaking WTO rules by checking stuff from China and India much more thoroughly than it is stuff from France.
Come April and July, when proper checks on imports are brought in
the reality of how much food is imported
will become horrifically clear
even to Telegraph readers
my mum reads it and she is anti Brexit !!

EchoElephant · 11/02/2021 11:16

ListeningQuietly thanks
That's more or less what I told my mum (thanks to my increased knowledge from these threads)
But she's adamant the Telegraph said the French were doing it deliberately. I can't read the article she's on about. So we've agreed to disagree.

DGRossetti · 11/02/2021 11:28

@EchoElephant

ListeningQuietly thanks That's more or less what I told my mum (thanks to my increased knowledge from these threads) But she's adamant the Telegraph said the French were doing it deliberately. I can't read the article she's on about. So we've agreed to disagree.
What happened to "We hold all the cards" ?

Either we did - so French bolshiness won't have any effect.

Or we didn't and your Mum was sold a load of bollocks.

If you have the time and patience then you can come up with these dilemmas all day long.

So ask your Mum which is right. Make a stand (for once).

Jason118 · 11/02/2021 12:18

The french are doing it deliberately - they have to under the new trading arrangement we have with the EU.

ListeningQuietly · 11/02/2021 12:19

DGR
The problem is that facts will not change the mind of a believer
at least not facts provided by an external source
hence why so few have changed their minds.

IMHO its better for Echo to just skirt around that topic
as I do with my kids and gender for example
and be ready to support her parents when reality bites.

DGRossetti · 11/02/2021 12:21

@Jason118

The french are doing it deliberately - they have to under the new trading arrangement we have with the EU.
If the French deliberately wanted to be obstreperous, we wouldn't be speculating about it, believe me.

But we return to that assurance "We hold all the cards". all is a superlative, not a comparative. If you hold all the cards, then by fucking definition, no one else can hold any. And that is an end to that.

Brexiteers need to be repeatedly nailed back with their own soundbites.

Jason118 · 11/02/2021 12:36

And if they were being over zealous in examining goods, I'm sure our mighty government would be looking at legal recourse under the terms of the agreement rather than trying to renegotiate it.

mrslaughan · 11/02/2021 12:37

The worlds smallest violin.....

Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.
redcandlelight · 11/02/2021 12:52

in many cards games 'holding all the cards' is a bad thing...

DGRossetti · 11/02/2021 13:14

@redcandlelight

in many cards games 'holding all the cards' is a bad thing...
Well usually it signals the end of the game. Winner if you are playing top trumps. Loser if you are playing beat your neighbour. Or cheat.
Peregrina · 11/02/2021 13:14

London was shut out of the single market when the post-Brexit transition period ended last year, severing links with the Continent. Much of this access could be restored through the EU's so-called equivalence regime, but Brussels is dragging its heels over giving permission for this in key areas.

No, London was not shut out of the single market. London made it abundantly clear that it wanted nothing to do with the Single Market and the ECJ.

Anyone reading that would think that the EU asked the UK to leave. It's like having a tantrum with your Gym, and refusing to pay the subscription but then whining that they have stopped you using the facilities.

DGRossetti · 11/02/2021 13:20

No, London was not shut out of the single market. Westminster made it abundantly clear that it wanted nothing to do with the Single Market and the ECJ.

FTFY Grin

Peregrina · 11/02/2021 13:31

Still DGR 47 years of whining for special deals and mostly getting them, it's going to take the Government some time to get used to learning new ways.

HoneysuckIejasmine · 11/02/2021 13:54

Absolutely Peregrina, what is that bloke on about? We chose to leave, of course we aren't in he club anymore. Ffs.

Helocariad · 11/02/2021 16:37

place marking

DGRossetti · 11/02/2021 17:51

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/11/brexit-to-cost-four-times-worse-for-uk-than-eu-brussels-forecasts

The economic blow dealt by Brexit will be four times greater in the UK than the EU, according to the latest forecasts by Brussels.

(contd)

Clavinova · 11/02/2021 18:33

mrslaughan
www.politico.eu/article/michel-barnier-brexit-touring-artists-work-permit-visa-free-travel/

"But Barnier said that his negotiators had put forward proposals to exempt musicians and artists from any new visa requirements or restrictions on short-term work on the Continent. The EU’s draft legal text, published last March, included a clear exemption from potential new restrictions for several categories of workers including “sportspersons or artists performing an activity on an ad-hoc basis” as well as “journalists sent by the media of their country of residence.”

Written answer from Caroline Dineage 4 Feb 2021;

During the negotiations, the EU tabled a declaration accompanying their proposals on visa-free travel. The declaration identified which paid activities could be allowed as part of visa-free visits. However, these proposals would not have addressed the creative and cultural sectors’ concerns. The proposals were non-binding, did not include touring but only ‘ad hoc’ performances, did not include technical staff, and did not address work permits. The EU’s proposals were also part of a package on visa-free travel that was not consistent with the UK's manifesto commitment to take back control of our borders.

During our negotiations with the EU, the UK proposed measures, reflecting the views of the music industry itself, that would have allowed musicians to travel and perform in the UK and the EU more easily, without needing work-permits...
Regrettably, these proposals were repeatedly rejected by the EU...

www.theyworkforyou.com/wrans/?id=2021-02-01.146865.h

From your link - EU's draft legal text - page 172;

Article MOBI.4:Visa-free travel

^2.Member States may individually decide to impose a visa requirement on citizens of the United Kingdom carrying out a paid activity during their short-term visit in accordance with Article 6(3) of Regulation (EU) 2018/1806 of the European Parliament and the Council of 14 November 2018 listing the third countries whose nationals must be in possession of visas when crossing the external
borders and those whose nationals are exempt from that requirement.^

For that category of persons, the United Kingdom may decide to impose a visa requirement on the citizens of each Member State individually, in accordance with its domestic legislation.

This extract may not have specified musicians but it's a very one-sided proposal; the EU wanted its member states to be able to impose visa requirements on UK citizens carrying out a paid activity - upon which the UK could apply reciprocal visa requirements - but the UK would not have been able to impose visa requirements for that category of persons first. Hmm.

DGRossetti · 11/02/2021 18:58

The "problem" is that out of the EU, the UK has to manage 27 separate countries relationships.

You know why ?

Because it's a 3rd country.

It's entirely open to the UK to not be a 3rd country and deal with the EU as a bloc, rather than individual countries, or course. Much as Japan or Canada or Norway have.

Rinse and repeat.

ListeningQuietly · 11/02/2021 19:19

As a non EU citizen
I had ILR in the UK
but was barred from France even though I could see it on a clear day
Italy and Spain were fine but I'd not be allowed through France to get there

Brits are now subject to the politics of each EU country adjusting its immigration rules on a whim.

Ha bloody ha.

Peregrina · 11/02/2021 19:45

Brits are now subject to the politics of each EU country adjusting its immigration rules on a whim.

But there are still plenty of Britons who are quite happy with this - they don't intend to move anywhere so why should they be bothered.Not my monkeys, not my circus, I think the phrase was.

We will see if they are bothered when prices in the shops increase, and their jobs disappear to Europe.

Clavinova · 11/02/2021 20:01

Brits are now subject to the politics of each EU country adjusting its immigration rules on a whim.

Although we didn't sign up to the proposal in the extract above, so it works both ways.

Rinse and repeat.

What has come out in the rinse for me is that the EU have been disingenuous in their statements regarding the proposals for musicians. Add that to the recent debacle with vaccine contracts and the triggering of Article 16 - their PR image isn't looking very good.