Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

[RedToothBrush]

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

@MrsMauryBallstein

on.ft.com/2MJRqYR

The winning continues...

At what point are all the industries so affected going to club together and seek a more responsive government to bribe work with ?

I bet Keir Starmer is still working out which way up to fly his fucking flag, and the LibDems are arguing over what colour "fire" should be, when it's invented.

I had high hopes for Keir Starmer. He's more intelligent than the entire cabinet put together. But he turning out to be a bit of a damp squib.

@FatCatThinCat

I had high hopes for Keir Starmer. He's more intelligent than the entire cabinet put together. But he turning out to be a bit of a damp squib.

I wonder if he argued for joining (we know if we omit to mention it's "rejoining" then 25% of the thicker Brexiteers won't make a squeak) the customs union to relieve the problems and help UK industry we'd see it happening as government policy by September ?

Some interesting points raised by ADifferentBias over the UKs desire to "reset" the deal. And that is that there will be other 3rd countries that have EU relationships watching and there is already disquiet at the concessions the UK is thus far enjoying. Which suggests that any extension to grace periods may not be possible even if the EU wanted. Which I am guessing they don't.

Brexit: literally no one is talking about it in Europe.

Note: these are ongoing negotiations - so the UK needs something from the EU ...

(I will ignore the painful use of "eventuate", since there may be some translation software involved. But please, don't make it a thing. IT nerds should not be making, not fixing, bad English ...)

www.cityam.com/exclusive-brexit-hit-to-london-may-be-9-5bn-a-year/

London, at the heart of the UK’s service sector economy, may lose up to £9.5bn in economic output a year from Brexit.

And it could be worse if a post-Brexit deal on financial services doesn’t eventuate, research out this morning finds.

Financial services, which was carved out from the post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and the EU, may account for more than £2bn in lost GDP per year.

(contd)

Right, that's it. I'm done. I've reached peak brexit and my brain can't handly any more bullshit.

Nick Gutteriidge on Twitter:

EU sources say the lack of provisions on shellfish exports was brought up numerous times in the talks as a concern. But the UK refused to engage, as it did on wider SPS issues, over fears of 'being drawn into the EU's regulatory sphere

twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1359250844416438282

[quote FatCatThinCat]Right, that's it. I'm done. I've reached peak brexit and my brain can't handly any more bullshit.

Nick Gutteriidge on Twitter:

EU sources say the lack of provisions on shellfish exports was brought up numerous times in the talks as a concern. But the UK refused to engage, as it did on wider SPS issues, over fears of 'being drawn into the EU's regulatory sphere

twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1359250844416438282[/quote]
It almost like there's a belief that you can't lose if you don't play the game. The same way you can't see a toddler if they can't see you.

Anyway, it seems the UK has managed to kill off it's own shellfish industry at a stroke. Much the the delight of EU shellfishers. In fact, the damage is so complete, so perfectly aimed, and so devastatingly effective, it's hard not to believe the UK team had been infiltrated by an EU activist.

At least in these dark times there's the comedy value of the UK now bleating and insisting that the EU change the rules just for us.

"It almost like there's a belief that you can't lose if you don't play the game. The same way you can't see a toddler if they can't see you."

Spot on, @DGRossetti. I think that's how "leave means leave" and "no deal is better than a bad deal" came to be the maxims of the Leave negotiators and their supporters. They just don't seem to understand the concept of being part of the Union, or not part of the Union (sorry just had a flashback to 1973 and the Strawbs: Part of the Union) and all that either entails, "because Sovereignty".

[quote FatCatThinCat]Right, that's it. I'm done. I've reached peak brexit and my brain can't handly any more bullshit.

Nick Gutteriidge on Twitter:

EU sources say the lack of provisions on shellfish exports was brought up numerous times in the talks as a concern. But the UK refused to engage, as it did on wider SPS issues, over fears of 'being drawn into the EU's regulatory sphere

twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1359250844416438282[/quote]
Worth posting in full.
Point #4 (my emphasis) pretty much sums it up, and is almost what my DF was saying since I can remember in the 1970s - that the English really are up themselves. (Parents evenings were fun ...)

1/ Some EU frustration at UK griping over trade problems and suggestions Brussels needs to improve its attitude to make the relationship work better. There's a feeling of déjà vu, that the UK never really accepted the practical reality of the deal it wanted and still doesn't.

2/ In particular there's exasperation that the UK is moaning about the deal not including arrangements that it ruled out itself to keep its own red lines intact. It's seen as a pattern of behaviour - first there was visa-free travel for musicians, now it's shellfish.

3/ EU sources say the lack of provisions on shellfish exports was brought up numerous times in the talks as a concern. But the UK refused to engage, as it did on wider SPS issues, over fears of 'being drawn into the EU's regulatory sphere'.

4/ The EU has rules vis-a-vis third countries, they say, and the UK knew this. Indeed, as they see things it's the British attitude that needs a reset. 'The problem is it wants to be a better third country than others, and that’s not an option.'.

5/ That's seen as particularly rich after the UK turned down the EU's offer for a much closer relationship in pursuit of a 'Canada-style' one. Recent complaints perpetuate concerns the UK still hasn't really come to terms with the sovereignty/access trade-off.

6/ That doesn't mean there isn't a willingness to work on solutions, however tricky they may be. On shellfish, for example, one EU source says where there's a will there's a way. But any solution 'will always be a compromise that will come with some demands on this side as well'.

7/ It's the same with the NI Protocol. The EU is willing to look at facilitations and the application on the ground, but not wholesale changes. The Protocol, again, is seen in Brussels and EU capitals as a consequence of the UK's chosen red lines.

8/ After four years of covering Brexit from here in Brussels, it's that same old feeling of the two sides talking at cross-purposes. Relations are in a tetchy place right now, and the drinks trolley with the G&T and peanuts is still stowed away.

Worth posting in full.

9/ Usual disclaimer: This is an EU perspective on recent events. I've reported the UK's views extensively in previous tweets. It is useful and healthy to know how both sides see things.

mathanxiety
The best you could manage, Clavinova?

I shall try a bit harder next time.

And BTW, that's Baron Hannan of Kingsclere in the County of Hampshire to you.

Thanks for the tip, but I would prefer to call him Lord Hannan like everyone else - I wouldn't want to be the odd one out. If you have bought Donald Trump's Handy Guide to British Peerages you should ask for a refund. Baronesses are still referred to as Baroness... in the House of Lords, but I think if you write to a baroness you address her as Lady... One of the quirks, although DGRossetti will probably correct me - he's a big fan of the British monarchy and all its associations. .

Gronky

Thank you.

I think if you write to a baroness you address her as Lady.

I don't ....

mrslaughan
Clav - you still haven't explained why Amazon offering apprenticeships is a Brexit win

I wasn't posting a Brexit win - I was posting a counterbalance; JDSports is considering setting up an extra warehouse distribution centre in the EU, with potentially 1,000 new jobs - while Amazon have announced 1,000 new apprenticeship roles in the UK. Why do you only want to hear negative news - do you live in the UK?

The shellfish business seems 100% typical. Time and time again it was 'the EU won't let us, or alternatively 'the EU makes us' and when you looked at the details, it was the UK adding some flourishes to EU rules, or they hadn't bothered to make representations about rules which would affect them.

Same with the visa for musicians - not the EU being difficult, the UK wanting to limit the number of immigrants, yet at the same time wanting to be global.

Poor Kingsclere
what did they do to deserve Hannan ?

@Peregrina

The shellfish business seems 100% typical. Time and time again it was 'the EU won't let us, or alternatively 'the EU makes us' and when you looked at the details, it was the UK adding some flourishes to EU rules, or they hadn't bothered to make representations about rules which would affect them.

Same with the visa for musicians - not the EU being difficult, the UK wanting to limit the number of immigrants, yet at the same time wanting to be global.

Well it's all moot now. The agreement is signed, and the UK is stuck with it. Having told the EU to go fuck themselves when an extension was offered last year, there really isn't going to be anyone that receptive to Michael Goves pleadings this time round, let alone George Eustice telling them how they need to run their union.

Same with the visa for musicians - not the EU being difficult, the UK wanting to limit the number of immigrants, yet at the same time wanting to be global.

Article here;

^“The EU did not offer a deal that would have worked for musicians,”
[Culture Minister Caroline] Dinenage said. “It’s quite simple: the EU in fact made a very broad offer which would have not been compatible with the government’s manifesto commitment to take back control of our borders.”^

According to Barnier, his negotiators put forward proposals to exempt musicians and artists from any new visa requirements or restrictions on short-term work on the Continent. The EU’s draft legal text, published last March, included a clear exemption from potential new restrictions for several categories of workers, including “sportspersons or artists performing an activity on an ad-hoc basis” as well as “journalists sent by the media of their country of residence.”

But Dinenage said this offer “would have covered a very small number of paid activities” and would have not benefitted touring artists and support technicians, because it only “covered ad hoc performances.”

“Furthermore these proposals would have enshrined permanent visa-free short stays for all EU citizens, not just current but future EU citizens as well in the agreement. And that is just simply not compatible with our manifesto commitment to take back control of our borders,” she continued.

The U.K. put forward proposals “actually based upon what the music industry said it wanted,” Dinenage said, but claimed the EU “wouldn’t play ball.”

www.politico.eu/article/uk-rejected-eu-offer-on-visas-for-musicians-to-take-back-control-of-borders-minister-says/

Excuse me if I don't believe a lying Tory.... because let's face it - they lie about everything ......

The U.K. put forward proposals “actually based upon what the music industry said it wanted,” Dinenage said, but claimed the EU “wouldn’t play ball.”

We just need to wait to see what a spokesperson for the actual music industry said. I doubt whether it will agree with what Dinenage says.

The best thing about having "Got Brexit Done" is the EU has now thrown the whole stinking mess back to the UK for perpetual bickering and sniping to jam up our government, not theirs.

No more having to second guess what weasel words will mean this week. No more having to do anything to square impossible circles.

If the UK wants something, it will have to define it, ask for it formally, and things proceed on that basis. No more turning up to meetings insisting on anything.

No one in the EU gives two shits what the Express thinks or prints.

Caroline Dinenage
whose dad Fred did PR for the Krays

@Peregrina

The U.K. put forward proposals “actually based upon what the music industry said it wanted,” Dinenage said, but claimed the EU “wouldn’t play ball.”

We just need to wait to see what a spokesperson for the actual music industry said. I doubt whether it will agree with what Dinenage says.

It's all moot. Nothing can change now without a negotiated agreement. The UK isn't doing that for anyone.

Rinse and repeat.

Clav it was reported widely and number 10 admitted they had turned down the offer of 90 day visa free travel for touring musicians- because they would have offered the same for European musicians....... cutting of the countries nose to spite its face.....

... and if you don't realise that trade deals require give and take, you are beyond hope. Just go back to poottering down to Waitrose and your farmshop ......

@ListeningQuietly

Caroline Dinenage whose dad Fred did PR for the Krays

Did he? Wow ! Imagine the stories!!!!

But does speak to morality....