Westminstenders: Disaster Capitalism.

[RedToothBrush]

An 'interesting' week. To say the least.

It has highlighted the purpose, point and weaknesses of the EU. It has revealled that the Irish Border is an ongoing issue which can not be ignored. Not only is it causing shortages in NI but it also reminds us that a zero covid strategy for the UK can not be managed unilaterally; we are not New Zealand.

It shows up the changing geo-politics of leaving. We have applied to join the Asia-Pacific free trade pact just a day after Macron told us to chose out allies and reminded us that geography and history have always tied our fate to France.

The epic fuck up of the EU has lead a rallying cry of support for leaving... but covid is currently hiding much of the reality of the implications of Brexit which will yet come out in the wash.

Brexit and Covid are tied together as conjoined twins of economic disaster though. Once restrictions start to lift, the shit will start to hit the fan. The efforts on where to aportion blame will start but it won't be on Brexit. We've known this for some time. Brexit no longer is relevant. Except of course it is. But who is writing the winner's narrative? Things are as they have always been. There is no squirrel. The squirrel is thinking that Brexit and Covid are separate things when those in charge don't.

In terms of the vaccine suggest, I think its worth reflecting on why it was successful. Johnson played the vaccine procurement like a gambler, who bet on all the horses in order to ensure we got a winner. Throwing the kitchen sink at a problem which shut the entire economy down was always the safe option. Especially when it was also a pretty certain bet that there would be unequal rollout and a shortage when one was found. If you think about it in those terms, it easier to see how this has been a success for the government: if only one vaccine was successful, we'd be grateful we'd invested in so many options. If all the vaccines came in good we'd end up in a good place. It was a win:win strategy, and one that was not that hard to do. We now find that whilst we were cutting the International Aid Budget we were also working on soft power that excess vaccine stocks and production capability bring... I note here its actually much harder to pull off successfully if you are considerably larger like the EU because of the sheer numbers involved - the dynamics always favoured the UK and I think this probably was something the UK was aware of and was worked into strategic planning. Other things will be much harder to get such easy political wins on - not least because they still involve the economics of geography and that being smaller is typically a weakness not a strength in trading - vaccines and supply shortages are the ultimate exception not the rule. The rule is proven by the EU's politicking and the threat of a vaccine trade war.

Thus the Tory Party have seen Brexit and Covid as being intrinsically linked for some time. I don't think everyone else has quite managed to wrap their head around the fact that its near impossible at this stage to disentangle to two because of this mentality.

This current batch of Tories are disaster capitalists after all, and the twin of Brexit and Covid is a gift to their ambition.

I'll just remind you what the goal really is here. Remember Johnson's speech at the Tory Party Conference in October:
www.conservatives.com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime-ministers-keynote-speech-in-full

We have been through too much frustration and hardship just to settle for the status quo ante – to think that life can go on as it was before the plague; and it will not. Because history teaches us that events of this magnitude – wars, famines, plagues; events that affect the vast bulk of humanity, as this virus has – they do not just come and go.

They are more often than not the trigger for an acceleration of social and economic change, because we human beings will not simply content ourselves with a repair job.

He is fully signed up to the Cummings/Gove school of thought of burn it down and rebuild afresh.

The idea that he cares about sorting out and repairing the problems Brexit brings, miss the ultimate point: He doesn't want to.

Strangely though Raab and Schapps are Grammar school products, and Williamson is a comprehensive/sixth form college product. Unlike Johnson and Rees-Mogg or from a lower rung of private education, Gove.

DGR
The calibre of our current elected representatives
I REFUSE to use the term "leaders"
is utterly depressing

and the message Labour SHOULD be pushing is

• parliamentary reform (get rid of those seats with declining electorates) oh silly me they are no longer Red
• electoral reform (use the example of the USA to show that 50:50 divided countries are a problem)

because then we have a chance of better government of any hue

@thecatfromjapan ahh, good point about GDPR /data retention. That’s really interesting - is the problem linking detailed information to a specific person/household? It seems very wrong that the rules are so strict for this when there is such extensive unregulated data collection online (which I guess is the whole problem).

You’d hope the broad themes would be passed back to the party in some way though. Would it be possible to have the canvassers capture detailed feedback but not link it to a person/house?

I was actually surprised by how low tech the information gathering was (sheets of paper with printed addresses!) and that only voting intention info was noted down, though a lot of additional feedback was given. Perhaps this was due to the restrictions you mentioned but I’m sure I’ve read about Labour using apps to gather on the doorstep info, so perhaps our local team are prefer the old system.

Love Katherine Hammett.

She's wearing her 'Fashion Hates Brexit' t-shirt for a segment on Brexit for BBCLondon.

She reminds me a lot of my mother-in-law.

Phoney flag-waving is not the way for Labour to win back the red wall
Clive Lewis

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/03/labour-red-wall-voters-patriotism-keir-starmer

This week, the Guardian revealed that the Labour leadership is preparing to back a flag-waving strategy to connect with the party’s former “red-wall” voters. The news has generated a disappointment among members and beyond that it’s difficult to overestimate.

Second-hand clothing mountain piles up as Brexit halts exports to EU: Deliveries of items given to charities for sale on the continent have fallen foul of rules of origin requirements

www.theguardian.com/business/2021/feb/03/second-hand-clothing-mountain-piles-up-as-brexit-halts-exports-to-eu

Not great news for charities at a time when they need the revenue more than ever.

I had no idea Katharine Hamnett was still around. Reminds me of being 17.

www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-55919593
No major Loyalist groups behind the shenanigans in Larne, say NI police..

www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2021/02/04/news/european-union-expects-rigorous-implementation-of-the-northern-ireland-protocol-michelle-o-neill-says-2209788/
The DUP is making a stand here, posing a question Johnson has to answer. Arlene Foster is pursuing a very aggressive approach here, calling for the Protocol to be thrown out. O'Neill insisting the EU will never abandon it. Sefcovic and Martin implying that someone has set the situation up to produce a failure, saying there is room for improvement in its implementation.

I am wondering if the DUP is behind the hostile graffiti, etc.

Been busy working so just caught up with the thread. Interesting discussion about what Labour need to do to become more electable. Agree with PP ?? @thecatfromjapan it does seem like a re run of the post Foot years but there’s more ground to make up as their traditional voters were more staunchly Labour. I know Labour has always been a mix of the working class/‘Red wall’ and the ‘liberal’ middle class but it seems more divided now and particularly by age and city/town. It’s not easy for Labour, and we are in unusual times too, but more than anything there needs to be a vision - what do they want, how will Labour make the country and your life better? Wrapping yourself in the flag just seems so short sighted and inauthentic, which just means that it emphasises the ‘all politicians lie’ trope which minimises the disaster which is the current government.

Patriotism is actually a comparatively "easy" proxy for the real divide between the young/urban/middle class Labour voters and their traditional Red Wall ones, but it doesn't address the problem. Someone, somewhere needs to go back to liberal enlightenment principles for managing rights in pluralistic democracies, making it clear that past applications suffered from elites being blind to minorities' needs, not because the principles themselves were wrong.

Right now there are far too many people out there who are happy to believe that tribal identity trumps intent/knowledge/outcome. On the right, it's Brexit voters (they don't need experts, you know). On the left, it's the Wokes (listen to the lived experience anecdotes on Twitter, don't look at any actual data). Patriotism may well appeal to a bunch of voters, but it runs the risk of borrowing the right's identity politics instead of dealing with the identity overrearch problems on the left.

Michael Gove issuing orders to the EU. This will be fun.

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/0203/1194705-brexit/

Anyone up for starting a crowdfunder to buy Arlene a hearing aid ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55932434

...

She added if the Irish and British governments, and the European Union, "believe the way forward is to ignore the majority of people in Northern Ireland then they need to say that".

(contd)

I'm starting to get a little hacked off with these Unionists. I thought they were all about being British. You really can't get more British than being ignored by your own government. What more could we do in God's name ? What more ?

@DGRossetti

Anyone up for starting a crowdfunder to buy Arlene a hearing aid ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55932434

...

She added if the Irish and British governments, and the European Union, "believe the way forward is to ignore the majority of people in Northern Ireland then they need to say that".

(contd)

I'm starting to get a little hacked off with these Unionists. I thought they were all about being British. You really can't get more British than being ignored by your own government. What more could we do in God's name ? What more ?

I want a 'like' button for this post. Especially the bit about how British it is to be ignored by your own govt.

TL;DR: You won, now STFU about it. I quite agree.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/mary-lou-mcdonald-on-brexit-7304518

(contd)

The question is, how long before the will of the people is also to agree "We won, we're over it." ? If it isn't already.

The dynamics of the situation are that the UK will always roll towards Europe - it's how gravity works. So Brexiteers now have a permanent need to ensure they are creating an equal and opposite force to preserve the status quo. With recent events demonstrating that their grasp of basic science is so pisspoor that if it was shown in a school, they'd be held back for extra classes.

Let's see how long they can keep it up.

Votre drapeau fait un joli manteau.

La tua bandiera fa un bel cappotto.

Deine Flagge macht einen schönen Mantel.

Déanann do bhratach cóta deas.

Sua bandeira dá um belo casaco. (I can see why DF managed to converse with Portuguese people a little, now ... )

davidallengreen.com/2021/02/four-examples-of-prime-ministerial-power-how-boris-johnson-in-fact-did-everything-he-could-for-there-to-be-a-trade-barrier-down-the-irish-sea/

Four examples of Prime Ministerial power – how Boris Johnson in fact ‘did everything he could’ for there to be a trade barrier down the Irish Sea

4th February 2021

You will no doubt have an opinion on Boris Johnson, the current prime minister of the United Kingdom.

For my part, the best and most insightful depictions of Johnson as a politician are this piece by Marina Hyde and this by Rafael Behr.

This post, however, will look at the prime minister not just as politician but also through the lens of constitutional law and practice – and, in particular, will examine one statement he made yesterday.

Everyone who cares knows that Johnson will not do – and has not done – ‘everything’ to avoid a barrier down the Irish Sea.

The fact that this statement is untrue is by itself neither here nor there: more than most politicians, Johnson knowingly says false things.

But for this blog, what is interesting about this lie is that its falsity engages four distinct examples of prime ministerial power.

For Johnson did everything as a prime minister for there to be a barrier down the Irish Sea.

Within a parliamentary system such as the United Kingdom, and with the constitutional theory that executive power flows from the crown, there are limits to what any prime minister can and cannot do.

But the Irish barrier question shows the ways in which a prime minister can exercise power.

First, a prime minister can change and set government policy.

And here Johnson broke with the policy of his predecessor on the (once infamous) ‘backstop’ in the withdrawal agreement.

Johnson, of course, did this for cynical reasons of political convenience – but it is a decision that only a prime minister could have made.

And Johnson did.

Second, a prime minister can enter into international agreements.

In constitutional theory, this is the prime minster using the royal prerogative to enter into those international agreements.

So having reversed the policy of his predecessor, he proceeded to agree the withdrawal agreement providing for a trade barrier down the Irish Sea.

And again, this was something he could only have done as prime minister.

Third, a prime minister – as leader of the party that wins a general election – can win a mandate for their policies.

Currently, calling a general election is outside the powers of a prime minister, by reason of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.

But when there is a general election, and that election is won, the prime minister (and the winning party) then enjoys a mandate for their manifesto commitments.

And this mandate is constitutionally significant – for example: any policy with such a mandate cannot be blocked or delayed by the house of lords.

The (then) ‘oven-ready’ deal was mandated by the 2019 general election.

So, again, a mandate was something Johnson achieved as a prime minister (and which his predecessor failed to do with the 2017 general election).

And fourth, a prime minister is ultimately responsible for the government’s programme of legislation.

So: having reversed policy, entered into an agreement with the European Union giving effect to that new policy, and having won a mandate for the policy in a general election…

…the prime minister now ensured that the policy was implemented into domestic law with an act of parliament.

(Legislation that, of course, was pushed through with minimal scrutiny using the government’s newly obtained overall majority so as to ‘Get Brexit Done’).

That there is now a trade barrier in the Irish Sea is a perfect illustration of the various powers of a prime minister under our constitutional arrangements.

The trade barrier in the Irish Sea was Boris Johnson’s policy (which he reversed from his predecessor), which he agreed with the European Union and for which won a mandate in a general election, and that he then ensured was enacted into domestic law.

There was nothing more Johnson as prime minister could have done for there to be this trade barrier in the Irish Sea.

.

I wish the MEP's luck with that request.
She has previous for denying all responsibility for her cockups, passing the buck to an underling, then disappearing from public view.

@KonTikki

I wish the MEP's luck with that request. She has previous for denying all responsibility for her cockups, passing the buck to an underling, then disappearing from public view.

Posts from the EU saying she was Boris in drag appear to have been closer to the mark than I realised.

I wonder if they've ever been seen in the same room together ?

www.politico.eu/article/brexit-bad-blood-eu-uk-vaccines/

And so the slow pull of the 70s continues. I would have been incredulous if paper forms were needed in 2001, let alone 2021.

www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/colour-of-ink-on-forms-among-catalogue-of-problems-hitting-post-brexit-exports/04/02/

Squabbling over whether to use red or blue ink on post-Brexit customs forms is among the problems plaguing exporters who are facing a “whack-a-mole” situation, a Scottish trade body has warned.

(contd)

I look forward to forms with "foreign sevens" on them being rejected too ...

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/04/uk-leaders-became-too-close-to-trump-says-ex-ambassador

British prime ministers have been absent from the world stage for the past four years while becoming too close to Donald Trump and his “pie in the sky promises” of a free trade deal, a former UK ambassador to Washington has said.

Sir Peter Westmacott, who was ambassador from 2012 to 2016 and got to know many of Joe Biden’s foreign policy team when they were working for Barack Obama in that period, said the start of the new US administration gave Britain a chance for a diplomatic reset, so long as ministers “bring bread to the table”.

(contd)

From that last article (I can post faster than I read) two standout paragraphs ...
...
Westmacott said a UK reset with the US would not be simple. “The impressions I got from my friends in the old Obama administration that are now being recycled in the Biden team was that there was a pretty strong sense that Brexit was a mistake, mis-sold, not in America’s interest, and that they had not forgotten some of the more colourful language used by Johnson towards some Democratic politicians. Nor had they forgotten the sucking up to Donald Trump,” he told the Guardian.
...
He cautioned Johnson not to be tempted into trying to disrupt or even goad the EU, arguing it was not the kind of UK-EU relationship that the Biden team would want and was not in the UK national interest. He believes the UK foreign and security leaders overall have recognised that their leverage will be enhanced if they cooperate with the main European players, albeit initially on ad hoc basis.

...

That last amuses me. What comes after an ad-hoc basis ? A more formal agreement. What comes after that ?

"Squabbling over whether to use red or blue ink on post-Brexit customs forms is among the problems plaguing exporters who are facing a “whack-a-mole” situation, a Scottish trade body has warned."

Good article, but it should come with a trigger warning for those with a phobia of seeing N. Farage.