Westministenders: The Beginning of Negotiations

[RedToothBrush]

Transition has a few hours left.

Then negotiations start and trade stops.

Far from being over, there are huge numbers of issues that lay unresolved.

And businesses both now in the UK and EU will cease to trade with each other just because the red tape is such a pain.

So whilst people will celebrate and think things are 'done' that just shows how much people are paying attention.

It will be interesting to see people gradually realising what has been lost...

Ireland chose to zero rate sanitary products in 1984 (legislation changed in 1992).

The UK didn’t, because ... well, it only affects less than 50% of the population and they’re not men anyway.

I'm sorry, I don't follow re the sanitary protection replies (you're all being a bit too 'clever')
Are you saying that we could have removed the tax whilst in the EU, or that the BBC have got it wrong quoting Ireland?

TLDR - the UK could have done so at various times in the past, and didn’t.

@SabrinaThwaite

Ireland chose to zero rate sanitary products in 1984 (legislation changed in 1992).

The UK didn’t, because ... well, it only affects less than 50% of the population and they’re not men anyway.

48/52 ?

Thank you Sabrina

@Whenwillow

I'm sorry, I don't follow re the sanitary protection replies (you're all being a bit too 'clever') Are you saying that we could have removed the tax whilst in the EU, or that the BBC have got it wrong quoting Ireland?

I wouldn't rely on the BBCs reporting of Brexit. Or indeed anything. Notice how they grill remainers, and let Farage and chums (one Brexit bonus will be less of that cunt on our screens with the excuse he's an MEP) spout bollocks until the air runs out.

I stopped paying my licence last year as the BBC has just become another version of the DM. I used to value their take on many world affairs but they are woeful now. And my ds has grown out of go jetters

@Mistigri

One thing I've noticed over the past few days is that rather than going away, the delivery of Brexit has actually made divisions worse. Definitely true here on Mumsnet where leaveurs just can't help themselves (we WON why can't those remoaners just SHUT UP) but also pretty much true on all other social media.

Scottish elections up next ... which won't contribute to more division at all. Oh no...

Yep. That’s my feeling - bitterer and more intense division as people’s jobs and areas are impacted as well as their rights.

Many of whom will be Brexiters. Bregret will turn to Bremorse.

They had a French person expert in the EU discussing Brexit on French radio station France Inter. He specifically talked about Scotland, and was pessimistic about an independent Scotland's chances of getting into the EU. Because the UK government would refuse a lawful referendum, and Spain would then veto.

@eve the extra expense has been known about - but I know individuals who have already moved horses to Ireland and Netherlands/Germany rather than hold stock here.....also good luck finding a professional transporter to move horses at the mo.... the good ones are in a wait and see mode. I know those heading to the sunshine tour take there own trucks - but there's quite a business in trade of horses b/W uk/Ireland and mainland Europe .

Can the grooms legally work on the sunshine tour? I have no idea , but would have thought there may be work permit issues?

I think there is a limit to how long Westminster can refuse a referendum: the UK is still a signatory of the UN Charter of Human Rights, which, like the UN Charter, includes a right to self determination. And there will also be pressure from the Council of Europe (there is a school of thought that devolution only came about because of behind the scenes pressure from the Council of Europe which, if Blair hadn't succumbed to the pressure would've become public and embarrassing).

The SNP didn't campaign explicitly on Indyref2 in the last Scottish Parliament elections (although you'd have been forgiven for not realising that, as the Conservatives did explicitly campaign on the basis of saying No to Indyref2 ) but nevertheless, Indy supporting parties won a majority in the Parliament.

If they campaign this time round (as they have stated that they would) on the basis of wanting a mandate for Indyref2 and win then it becomes ever more awkward internationally for the WM Government to continue to refuse permission (I know, I know, since when did WM care about its international reputation? )

I agree that an unauthorised referendum is inadvisable - particularly due to Spain's concern about Catalonia (they've already intimated that as long as it's legally sanctioned, they wouldn't object to Scotland's accession).

There are other ways that the SNP could cause legal problems (even before challenging the UK Government in the courts): they could follow the Irish approach in the early 20th century of using procedure to be a thorn in the side of efficient running of Parliament. At the moment they play the game in Parliament - they could be deliberately obstructive.

In what way Prettybird?

I know Sinn Fein got a whole load of MPs elected and then didn't go to Westminster but set up in Dublin, but with a devolved Government that option isn't open to them.

Generally speaking I don't agree with tit for tat measures, but since Johnson's Government has shown that he has no respect for the devolved Governments then I think he needs to be beaten at his own game.

From what I understand (and I'm not an expert) Parnell (and therein, immediately demonstrate my lack of expertise as it was actually late 19th century, not early 20th century ) perfected a policy of obstructionism, using parliamentary procedure to disrupt the smooth running of Parliament and thereby get Home Rule for Ireland onto the government's agenda.

The SNP have done it once to my knowledge - forcing an Urgent Question but I'm sure that there are other ways, especially with close reading of Erskine May. Even simple things like filibustering as often as possible could be really irritating.

Thinking internationally, with Biden's Irish roots, there may be a route there to get him to see the parallels between Ireland's hard won right to self-determination and Scotland's legitimate desire for it.

I agree with Prettybird

The last 17(?) polls have shown majority support for an independent Scotland. It's seen now on many quarters as inevitable as opposed to a pie in the sky scenario.

The UK government has also allowed themselves to be manouvered into a position where pretty much everything they do boosts the independence vote.

Brexit is a big one, and every time a negative impact is noted the SNP will point it out as something that would not happen in an Indy Scotland.

WM has broken every promise it made in the run up to the 2014 vote, and that is recent enough that people have not forgotten.

The UK has to deal with the world on its own now and the Scottish situation is going to become increasingly embarrassing.

Add to this the half in half out status of NI and Gibraltar, who both returned a Remain vote. Why can't Scotland also be allowed a share of the Remain concessions?

Let's stop calling it the UK - it's primarily England, with Wales being dragged along behind it, but the Independence movement is growing there too. I might expect to live another twenty years - I would expect to see Scottish Independence in this time and Irish reunification - I don't think I would expect to see Welsh Independence.

Am I alone in seeing that rather a lot of Brexiters are grumbling on social media? What is wrong with them? They have got what they wanted.

An interesting view from the other side of the pond
www.nytimes.com/2020/12/31/world/europe/brexit-eu-advantages.html

And I'm in an EXCELLENT mood today because of this
www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55507226
Massive fan of the KLF here

Very late PMK!

Musing about the future:

I believe that the EU, freed of the dead weight of the UK, will go from strength to strength. It will form a necessary counter weight to the growing economic strength of China, which is set to become the world's No 1 economy 5 years ahead of prediction (according to the latest CEBR report).

The US, unless it can quickly rebuild international trust after the Trump years (but trust once lost is difficult to regain), will diminish in influence (and Biden has already said he will concentrate on internal economics, which means that that won't be top of his list of priorities).

Russia and Putin, will fade in importance as the US starts to ignore it. Russia already has a disproportionate influence validated by the US entertainment industry , left over from the USSR years, given the size of its GDP (per capita only the 50th/61st in the world and 11th in nominal GDP).

The US and Russia are like aged boxers, punch drunk and circling each other in a never ending boxing bout, while the rest of the world loses interest in the match.

India with its enormous population will increase its influence. The UK will fail to get a share of its markets (both export and import) as it will refuse to accept that a FTA will be dependent upon increased visas. The EU, on the other hand, will be much more comfortable to take advantage of the opportunity.

The UK has regained its sovereignty that it never lost but will now have to cope in splendid isolation in a world that is moving on without it.

Dover residents have received a letter telling them that land at White Cliffs has been purchased and will become a lorry park / customs clearance site for 1200 lorries.

Isn’t it the case that if VAT was applied on something before joining the EU, it isn’t possible for a member state to disapply it (ie zero rate it)? And wasn’t that going to change for sanitary products anyway?

There is a school of thought that the UKs main use to the US in the "special relationship" was as a counterweight in the EU to the more socialist tendencies of France and Germany.

That's now gone.

Forever.

With each passing day now, I am convinced the reason Cameron scarpered was because he'd basically cocked up big time with the US. I have no idea what was said behind closed doors, but I can see it being something like concern from the US (Obama) that the referendum could result in an outcome that is "not necessarily to the advantages of the US" and that he was soft soaped by Cameron saying "Don't worry Barry, old chap. We've got this nailed".

The 4 year hiatus of Trump sort of made that irrelevant. And had Trump won, would have continued to do so.

However the best laid plans of mice and Brexiteers aft gang agley and here we are with the VP to Obama returning to become POTUS, with a few terabytes of research from 2014-2016 into how the US would be disadvantaged by Brexit.

That's the problem with long term projects like Brexit - quite aside from the fact that the UK is renowned the world over for it's total incompetence with any project that lasts longer than a series of Downton. By the time you finally reach the point you aimed for five years ago the beastly world has moved in a different direction.

@Peregrina Welsh independence is an interesting one. In the past I would have thought it would remain a minority given the Welsh language link and predominance of Labour, especially in South Wales which has less Welsh speakers. But, the ties to Labour have weakened and the Valleys in particular were very pro Brexit. There’s potential for Plaid to tap into this as a chance to vote against Labour (who are the ‘establishment’ in S Wales) without actually voting Tory, in the same way UKIP were for many traditional Labour voters before the 2019 election.

India with its enormous population will increase its influence. The UK will fail to get a share of its markets (both export and import) as it will refuse to accept that a FTA will be dependent upon increased visas. The EU, on the other hand, will be much more comfortable to take advantage of the opportunity.

I don't think the prospect of a Sino-Indian alliance is too far fetched. Which would pretty much do for England.