Westministenders: The Beginning of Negotiations

[RedToothBrush]

Transition has a few hours left.

Then negotiations start and trade stops.

Far from being over, there are huge numbers of issues that lay unresolved.

And businesses both now in the UK and EU will cease to trade with each other just because the red tape is such a pain.

So whilst people will celebrate and think things are 'done' that just shows how much people are paying attention.

It will be interesting to see people gradually realising what has been lost...

Why are a whole load of blokes writing on Conservative Woman? Won't they allow the little woman to speak for herself?

They are not happy with Johnson though - that's two days in succession they have had a go at him. After a bit though I couldn't be bothered to read the comments. Are they ready to sharpen the knives for Boris; I still think it's a bit soon for a bloodletting.

I was amused to click on the Stateside link and see James Delingpole saying why he believed Trump will and must win.

orynski.eu/imprisoned-at-the-border/

Account of the shit show in Kent over Christmas. Some of it is scarcely believable - drivers with fake test certificates driving through police lines to get out of Manston?! But much of it rings true. Hard to believe that any of the drivers who got caught up in this will want to return to the U.K. any time soon.

Is that why Johnson caved in over the fish?

Imagine this in 21st century Britain: put foreigners into a concentration camp and REFUSE for them to receive humanitarian aid, so the FOREIGN CITIZENS living in your country had to smuggle it through a hole in the fence. Welcome to Dover in 2020” – this is how the whole situation was commented by a British haulier Ciaran Donovan.

Apt summary. I assume Ciaran is either NI or of Irish extraction.

A poll predicts that if a GE were held now, it would wipe out the Tory majority.

Well it's not going to happen any time soon, and Tories may be right to predict that Johnson's deal has led to a bit of a swing back. Also Starmer supporting the deal will have turned some Labour voters off.

As to the Lib Dems - possible, but I wonder why they selected Kingston and Bath to retain LibDem MPs. Here in Oxford West and Abingdon, I think we may have the highest Lib Dem majority and the Labour vote, never strong, has been totally squeezed so I doubt if many would switch to Labour. But it could go back to a slender majority.

I think most people won't notice anything has changed at all.

Until.... well what really? Lack of fruit, veg, higher prices, what?

The reality is, unless Brexit affects the ordinary Joe/Josie it will all be fine.

Is that why Johnson caved in over the fish?

In my opinion the disaster in Kent was definitely a factor.

@Peregrina

A poll predicts that if a GE were held now, it would wipe out the Tory majority.

Well it's not going to happen any time soon, and Tories may be right to predict that Johnson's deal has led to a bit of a swing back. Also Starmer supporting the deal will have turned some Labour voters off.

As to the Lib Dems - possible, but I wonder why they selected Kingston and Bath to retain LibDem MPs. Here in Oxford West and Abingdon, I think we may have the highest Lib Dem majority and the Labour vote, never strong, has been totally squeezed so I doubt if many would switch to Labour. But it could go back to a slender majority.

Yes, and LibDems losing Orkney? They've been LD since I can remember!

From that Guardian article about the "shocking" poll although I'd reserve judgement because it is going to be over 3 years until an ACTUAL election, the only poll that matters ....

"The SNP would appear to be the real winners. Not only do they win all but two Scottish constituencies, but the most likely outcome is a Labour-SNP coalition government, which would have an overall majority of just over 20 seats.”

Not. Going. To. Happen

The SNP will not go into coalition with Labour. They might, at a push, go into a Confidence and Supply arrangement. But more likely they will say simply, "Go ahead and govern as a Minority Government - as we have had to, indeed chosen, to do."

And they'd exact a heavy price if they've not already gained the right to hold Indyref2, as that would be the starting requirement.

Starmer has not exactly built bridges with the SNP - indeed the Scottish people - in recent months with his lack of respect for the right to self-determination and his backtracking on the concept of proper federalism (although I personally think that that particular ship has sailed).

And the SNP has seen the damage that was done to the LibDems after they went into coalition with the Conservatives - and are not going to fall into that trap.

prettybird - exactly what I said to DH. They would insist on an IndyRef in return of for any form of co-operation.

Federalism - could see Labour trying to offer this as a way of getting out of a hole, but I think now it's too late.

Tatiana I know this but the referendum is over.

Agreed, but nothing will change immediately for most people so who cares.

I am not entirely sure. Think about how many people buy things on line, especially now with Covid, and will find that companies are no longer shipping to the UK, or that it's more expensive.

Looks like it will even be difficult, time-consuming and costly (to the point of not doing it) to ship supplies from England to Northern Ireland.

Unbelievable.

mobile.twitter.com/tompeck/status/1334838000065372162?lang=en

forum.gardenersworld.com/discussion/1048376/uk-seeds-to-europe-and-northern-ireland-reminder

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/03/britons-living-in-spain-barred-from-madrid-flight-in-post-brexit-travel-row

This is why I told my work long ago (pre covid) that I won't be travelling to the U.K. until I have my new travel document - likely to be at least mid year.

A Labour-SNP confidence and supply arrangement should have two things. In this order: 1. Electoral reform (get rid of FPTP and an unelected second chamber) 2. Indyref2.

We need Scottish MP votes first to make sure the Tories don't have a stranglehold via FPTP on any rUK general election.

I'm naively surprised that people are flying back and forth between the UK and Spain just now, TBH, especially if they rely on medication.

Note to self: apply for French passport asap.

There are lots of reasons people might be flying and most will have travelled before the government told everyone about the MUTANT VIRUS (which they had know about for at least several weeks).

I'm thinking of sending my daughter over because my mum is getting frailer and both her daughters are in Europe ... DD has both passports so can use U.K. in and EU out.

You're right, Mistigri, of course.
It's just there was so much kerfuffle about the travel ban that I hadn't realised there were many passenger flights even available.
I really need to go and check on my ailing parents, too, but I'm starting to think it won't happen till the summer. I have a flight booked for late April, which I did presuming I might well need to postpone it.

@AuldAlliance

I'm naively surprised that people are flying back and forth between the UK and Spain just now, TBH, especially if they rely on medication.

Note to self: apply for French passport asap.

People are travelling in smallish numbers - probably not so much holiday makers now but business travellers and essential workers going to/fro... some Brits, some Spanish other nationalities no doubt.

From what I've heard the tightening of requirements for Spanish entry were known about several weeks ago, however it does sound like the incident(s) mentioned in the Guardian is a stuff up by Airline staff... Airline management sometimes have a habit of rewriting regs/adding extra layers onto new regulations and requirements before promulgating them to customer facing staff, which can lead to confusion all round..

From what I've read it sounds like the Spanish have been refusing some travellers at other ports of entry, so the airlines have to be super cautious because they are legally and financially liable for carrying illegal immigrants.

But more generally, the British in Europe campaign group is collecting evidence on breaches of the Withdrawal Agreement and it is not looking good with multiple breaches already.

While there is a formal oversight committee for the three million, there is nothing to protect the rights of the British in Europe except a campaign group run by volunteers.

@Mistigri

There are lots of reasons people might be flying and most will have travelled before the government told everyone about the MUTANT VIRUS (which they had know about for at least several weeks).

I'm thinking of sending my daughter over because my mum is getting frailer and both her daughters are in Europe ... DD has both passports so can use U.K. in and EU out.

Do you know for sure that will work Mistgri? My DD also has two passports and we’ve been told that you need to use the same one in both directions. One of DH’s colleagues had trouble trying to do it recently.

The airlines do have to be cautious Mistigri but from accounts I've heard and events I've seen there's no doubt one or two ground staff can get a bit over zealous, sometimes due to an incorrect interpretation by others in the management chain of documentation required.

@QueenofThorns

My DD also has two passports and we’ve been told that you need to use the same one in both directions.

Not sure how the UK is playing it now but same passport in/out is the norm for many countries these days. You might want to rummage around though UK Gov and the FCO/Home Office websites for a definitive answer.

Do you know for sure that will work Mistgri? My DD also has two passports and we’ve been told that you need to use the same one in both directions. One of DH’s colleagues had trouble trying to do it recently.

She's done it loads of times pre Brexit. I don't know how they can stop you, especially if the two travel segments are booked separately. But she's also used a U.K. passport to check in for a return flight from the U.K., then a French passport on reaching the French border. What's anyone going to do about that?

But more broadly, regardless of what passport she travels on, her French passport is a guarantee that she will be let back into France. Whereas I don't have that guarantee so I can't travel.

What's stopping us having DD go over to check up on mum is a complete absence of information about who is still covered by EHICs ... theoretically DD has some WA rights (as she was exercising FoM rights for 14 years) but I have no idea where she stands.

It's a horrible mess. I've already told my boss that he can forget me being in London in May for an important meeting (assuming it goes ahead). I doubt very much I'll have my paperwork by then.