Westminstenders: Off he pops to Brussels

[RedToothBrush]

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
There's no way Johnson has not already decided whether or not to concede on Level Playing Field. Which makes the trip to Brussels dressing. Whether it will dress a concession as "I have saved us" or No Deal as "I tried my best" remains to be seen. But the choice is already made.

Amanda Cole @amandajanecole
What's your gut feeling, will he put his job ahead of the country? Given his past self serving form?

Alex Andreou @sturdyalex
I think he is so cornered - and has done so badly on Covid19 - his instinct will be one last, double-or-nothing throw of the dice. Only no deal does that.

The issue is that coming back with a deal will earn him much heckling and zero back-slapping from his peers. But no deal will earn him just as much heckling, but also plenty of back-slapping. What I don't know is just how ominous the departmental briefings he's getting are.

Its also worth noting the following:

Mujtaba Rahman @mij_europe
I understand @BorisJohnson wanted @EmmanuelMacron & Merkel to join his phone call with @vonderleyen last night, but she rejected the idea

So even yesterday he was STILL looking to undermine the EU and split its leaders. After all this time and the number of times he's tried this on.

Have no doubt that a) everything will be blamed on Macron (probably personally, with Conservative hardliners coming out calling for the public to boycott French cheese and wine - I'm serious btw) and covid b) covid provides a handy distraction at least for the moment. It will be used accordingly - that means its possibly now not in Johnson's interest to stop a spike in January. All efforts will be put into the vaccine rollout for PR but thats going to hit the breaks fairly soon. No doubt the EU will be blamed for that too.

What I'm not anticipating is another full lockdown. I think at least parts of Greater Manchester will now get out of T3 on 16th December. Traffords numbers look exceptional and I think it politically impossible for Johnson to keep it in T3. Its Graham Brady's patch and Manchester as a whole looks far far better than T2 London.

Anyone who gets out of T3 before Christmas won't go back into it. I'm not anticipating London to go T3 unless No Deal turns really ugly and its useful to quell civil unrest.

I think if we head into no deal then tight restrictions won't be used for covid reasons no matter how bad the hospitals get - it will only be about civil unrest, it will all be about keeping the economy going - backbench revolts are what scare Johnson most, and he's already said no more Tiers after the start of Feb.

We shall see what the day brings...

Exactly. There's no feeling of achievement for anyone in government. Bar the "let's just crash out" loons.

John le Carre and arch remainer has died now too.

He likes his image.

Wanker

Trump is (nearly) gone. We still have our Trump mini me

Here's something for Brexiteers to wank over. From the very excellent Imperial War Museum North.
And before anyone gets cross about disrespecting our war heroes - my Dad was in the convoys that inspired this.

www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/14/england-covid-test-and-trace-relying-on-inexperienced-and-poorly-trained-staff

I would still think a well planned Brexit was a bad idea, but it would be nowhere near as bad as this. They haven't planned a single thing, they are winging it all the way. I'm disturbed they can be so cavalier with the UK's future. They wanted it, they should plan it properly.

Regarding the food supply, I saw on MN ages ago, can't remember where that the government have said the food supply isn't their responsibility, does anyone else remember that?

General consensus on Irish radio this morning is a bare bones deal will be struck. Still crap but at least our farmers won't be hit by massive tariffs.

I would still think a well planned Brexit was a bad idea, but it would be nowhere near as bad as this. They haven't planned a single thing, they are winging it all the way. I'm disturbed they can be so cavalier with the UK's future. They wanted it, they should plan it properly.

Agreed!

twitter.com/alextaylornews/status/1338254916259893249?s=21

A French company is going to do the checks on who is in BRITISH waters after brexit 😂

Local Tory MP on radio this morning to discuss covid tiers. We've got a city on 199/100,000 and the surrounding countryside on 39/100,000 so we're talking about splitting region up a bit etc etc.

They then asked him about brexit. All the MPs in the county are Conservative - some big wig back benchers, some thorn in the side of cabinet types. This one said quite clearly that no deal would have an economy impact bigger than covid and be a disaster. When pressed he said he'd like a deal where we agree to maintain our current standards, but not necessarily be required to increase them in line with any future EU changes without arbitration, otherwise "what exactly was the point of brexit?" Well indeed, Sir, indeed.

I can't say I disagree tbh. If we're doing this is seems a reasonable compromise for us to make and shouldn't harm the EU in that we won't suddenly drop our standards. We can quietly accept higher standards in future once all the brexiteers think they've won.

Can someone explain to me how if we get tariff and quota free access to the single market, we are not having our cake and eating it? It's always being said that this is a thin deal but how are we worse off than we are as a member if we are not having to pay in and have some autonomy from the rules. It looks a lot like having our cake and eating it to me. I know (assume) I am wrong but I would just like someone to explain to me the difference between being in the single market and having access to it.

I would just like someone to explain to me the difference between being in the single market and having access to it.

Being in the single market means you have a seat at the table deciding the rules of the single market. Having access to the single market means you don't have a seat at the table but still have to follow the rules. In other words, you're either a rule maker or a rule taker. The UK doesn't want to be either but still wants access and that's why they're getting nowhere.

A French company is going to do the checks on who is in BRITISH waters after brexit

You couldn't make it up!

Can someone explain to me how if we get tariff and quota free access to the single market, we are not having our cake and eating it?

because goods exported to the EU will need to comply with their regulations. Irrespective of whatever shit we choose to sell ourselves.

There aren't many companies that are going to set up two productions lines - one for export, one for domestic.

The whole idea of Brexit was to eliminate all safety and labour legislation so that we can churn out tat that would make China blush in conditions that would make Foxconn workers envious. But there's fuck all point in doing that if the profits are wiped out by having to make better quality stuff for export. Especially when you've given up your say in those regulations.

One of the biggest motivators to join the EEC was to be able to vote on the regulations that companies in the 1960s noticed they had to comply with for export.

@Ellie56

A French company is going to do the checks on who is in BRITISH waters after brexit

You couldn't make it up!

Is that in between printing our blue passports (in their Polish subsidiary) ?

Thanks for info. It could still be said that if we tow the line with the direction of travel we are getting a good deal without paying in. The rules allow some regulatory divergence in any event. Ireland is in a dispute with the EU at present over it's tax sweeteners that have attracted the likes of Apple and Amazon to their shores. I read the George Osborne article last week talking about the futility of Brexit when we are as likely as not to just end up shadowing the rules of the EU in any event.
Many have also commented before that we had considerable sway with the rule setting and often got our way so it doesn't seem to really be the rules that upset us (save for the ultras who will always be irreconcilable).
It still seems to me that we are still getting a free ride and if the EU are wanting to make an example of us to ward off other rebel states, it's not that bad a punishment. It's like I can still go to the gym (free) as long as I obey the rules of the gym. What's the downside?

Maybe it’s as though you can go to the gym free but not at a time of your choosing, you can’t use the pool or spa and you have to pay an exorbitant amount upfront to use a locker. Or whatever they say. Which is perfectly fair.

@Ellie56

A French company is going to do the checks on who is in BRITISH waters after brexit

You couldn't make it up!

You couldn't make The Thick Of It now, could you? The writers could never top current events!

It's hard not to be expecting the next Big Brexit Announcement to come from

www.fourseasonslandscapinguk.co.uk/

Conservative MP Roger Gale has said that he will step down if Boris doesn't get a deal. He's jolly cross that Boris promised the nation a deal and that Roger stood for parliament on that basis, so he would have no option but to resign if he were elected on a false promise.

Only joking - he hasn't that much integrity (or energy watching him). No, he's jolly cross and will call for Boris to resign if there's no deal.

How come I can look across the Atlantic, and still think their politicians make ours look shit ?

Bad news for Londoners and for those in Essex.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55301192
Covid: London likely to move to tier 3 amid rising rates

London faces a move to tier three - England's highest level of coronavirus restrictions - in the coming days, the BBC has been told.

Ministers and officials are said to be "deeply concerned" about a sharp rise in Covid-19 cases across the capital.

The BBC's Hugh Pym reports London MPs have been briefed on the latest data, with a move to tier three now believed to be possible as soon as today.

But our health editor said no final decision had been made.

as today. The review isn't due until Wednesday...

These weeks in the run up to Christmas were bound to go pear shaped.
Lockdown finished, schools still open as per “schools are safe” and people shopping and socialising because that’s what they always do at this time of year. Really, what did they expect?

Current state of play according to www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/brexit-barnier-says-trade-deal-still-possible-but-differences-remain-on-fisheries-1.4436238

A senior EU diplomat who attended a closed-door briefing by Barnier on the state of play in Brussels said the tortuous trade talks could collapse but for now “the patient is still alive”.

“There might now be a narrow path to an agreement visible – if negotiators can clear the remaining hurdles in the next few days,” another EU diplomat said, adding that success depends on London accepting “inherent trade-offs” for a fair deal.
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The next few days are important, chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier announced. He told reporters that negotiators would continue to talk with “calm and respect until the very end”.

“We are going to give every chance to this agreement... which is still possible,” Mr Barnier said has he prepared to update the 27 EU member states on progress in the talks in Brussels.

“Two conditions aren’t met yet. Free and fair competition... and an agreement which guarantees reciprocal access to markets and waters. And it’s on these points that we haven’t found the right balance with the British. So, we keep working.”

And of course from Downing St., we have:

“Any deal that we get with the EU has to respect the fact that we are a sovereign country, an independent country and that’s the basis on which we will do a deal if there is a deal to be done,” Mr Sharma said.

They're like recalcitrant teenagers insisting that they should be allowed stay out all night because they are now (in their mind anyway) grown up, and informing they're parent that "You can't tell me what to do".

Now the attempt at managed No Deal/contigency/Aus deal has failed, BJ is cornered.

They don’t want real No Deal (apart from loons like Redwood) so they will have to capitulate. There’s still a good chance of unintentional No Deal. But I have hope now.

BJ is playing silly buggers and losing. Tory MPs are calling for BJ to quit if he fails.