Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

Haven't seen the thread in question about French lockdown but, yes, Macron is giving one of his speeches this evening and we're waiting to see.

Ideas rumoured to be have been discussed:
closing secondary schools & universities
local or national lockdown
weekend lockdown
closing non-essential shops
longer curfew than the current 9pm-6am one

My store cupboard is almost ready. But the prospect of overseeing schoolwork while teaching via Zoom and finishing a big research job with a looming deadline is filling me with dread.
Also, my heating didn't seem to working properly at the end of last winter, which could be a bugger if we're locked down. I usually don't put it on till Nov 1st, but am going to bite the bullet and test it this morning, then call the plumber asap.
Yay...

yorkshirebylines.co.uk/astrazeneca-and-brexit-the-hardest-pill-to-swallow/

Auld, I think businesses will mostly be allowed to continue if they can do so safely. We know now what spreads the virus, and it isn't a tradesman coming to mend your boiler.

I am absolutely certain that universities will be forced online though (for my daughter this means no lessons at all: big Paris universities have been absolutely useless, although in fairness the English department has been a bit better than the history department!).

The reason they are announcing tonight and are likely to impose restrictions from Friday is to stop another mass student migration across the country. I booked my daughter's ticket out of Paris a few days ago in anticipation. Government response has been reactive not proactive, making it simple (for a super forecaster like myself ) to predict what they will do. (My teens think I have a crystal ball cos I warned them as soon as we had the 52k daily case figure that we'd be getting a Macron lecture this week .)

It's easy in hindsight but

• keeping school, university and work canteens open was a massive error. This alone probably explains the much worse trajectory in France versus some other countries: our obsession with eating 3 course meals in collective settings.

• the curfew was not a terrible idea but done much too late. It should have been imposed on 31/8 not in mid October. It might have slowed the epidemic as students went back - wouldn't have helped in universities where students mainly live on campus or in residences (like my sons engineering school) but in big cities with lots of students and young people in private accommodation it would have made a difference.

@DrBlackbird

Is it just me or does it somehow feel that we're accelerating towards endgame Brexageddon? Just a slightly hyperbolic PMK...

Seriously, is it possible that the result of this chaos will be Johnson et al just waving on through whoever's lorries want to come into the UK? No paperwork, customs checks etc How else to keep grocery stores stocked??

Yes, we'd see new soaring people smuggling, but if the alternative is no food or petrol wouldn't Johnson say screw it and let all the lorries in without checking documents and permits that none are likely to have in any event?

Now, can we see the EU doing that in terms of our lorries going over to the continent? Hmm, let me think for a nanosecond ... no of course not. But that's another problem.

The second paragraph "Seriously ... stocked??"

This is already the case. The government hasn't even the intention of bringing in full checks until July 2021.

Quoting a BBC news story from June 2020 when this was announced:
"From 1 January, there will be checks on controlled substances, such as alcohol and tobacco, while standard goods, such as clothes and electronics, will be subject to basic customs procedures. But firms will have up to six months to complete customs declarations and pay relevant tariffs
From 1 April, those importing products of animal origin, including meat, milk or egg products, will have to pre-notify officials and provide the relevant health paperwork
By 1 July, all goods will be liable for relevant tariffs and customs declarations as well as full "safety and security" declarations. From this moment, there will be an increase in physical checks on livestock, plants and other sanitary and phytosanitary products at ports and other entry points."

There will be a lot of waving through and not a lot in the way of checks. Where are the facilities and personnel to do otherwise?

Mistigri, I think the same about businesses. Not sure about little non-essential shops, since the aim is to empty crowded areas...

The curfew came too late, I agree, and there wasn't enough messaging at the end of the summer about reinforcing mesures barrières. Kids and students went back to school and into public transport, sometimes with a mask on, sometimes with a mask round their chin. In the streets, they were behaving as though Covid was over.

Our campus with 12-15k students on shouldn't have opened for hybrid teaching for 2 weeks. We should have focused on doing better online teaching and making provision for students without laptops/wifi, etc., which was done, but too late.
Our department has been teaching online. One person is being an arse and claiming she can't because the new computer she requested to replace her obsolete old knackered one hasn't come yet (neither has mine, but I ended up buying one myself, presuming both DC would be online learning at some point before the summer...). I've certainly been working my backside off, doing Zoom classes and adding extra docs online, posting detailed answers to questions after class, etc. Sorry to hear about your DD's poor provision.

I agree about canteens. I never set foot in the one at work, but loads of people did, even though the food is minging. And they should have loosened rules about taking a packed lunch to school, rather than trying to carry on serving school lunches to all pupils.

We'll see what Manu says this evening.

"Farage Garage" is now on GoogleMaps, with accompanying reviews

As always its a competent approach thats missing - where students spend 10 weeks at university - that is almost a gokden opportunity to let them get covid and recover before going home - the problem is the students living at home. Secondary schools, for post-pubertal students obviously will be a virus breeding ground.

Shops / businesses - we all know shops that are 'safe' and those that just pay lip service to the rules - if there was a scheme to certify shops as safe before they open then there would be an incentive to get them safe.

The centralised blanket measures were all that could be done in the beginning, but over the summer there ought to have been preparations for the autumn/winter

Its the world leading faffing about thats hurting us.

Good news - heathrow losing its crown - for all sorts of reasons

Ah that makes sense Cher. As with all previous deadlines, this one is likely to be extended as well past July 2021 once the government headed by Sunak admits it's IT systems are still not ready. The upshot is that importing goods into the U.K. will continue, but our British producers exporting will be well and truly stuffed as the EU is more prepared for Brexit (ignoring those ironies) and generally efficient. I wonder what dodgy goods and food might be imported once there are no border checks?

I wonder what dodgy goods and food might be imported once there are no border checks?

Presumably whatever can be imported now. There's even less chance of it being checked currently.

I'm trying to figure out when I need to stock up.

If there are no or few or exactly the same border checks on goods into the U.K. come January 1st, then will it be closer to July that we begin to see supply chain disruptions hit U.K. shelves?

LQ what are your thoughts? I think you have clients who import?

@FrankieStein402 - "where students spend 10 weeks at university - that is almost a gokden opportunity to let them get covid and recover before going home -"

Why a golden opportunity? Are you promoting the very concerning theory of herd immunity? For a disease that has unknown long term outcomes (infertility being a major concern for the young) and catching it doesn't seem to confer long term immunity.
I am sure the parents of Uni students who are in Manchester ICU wish their kids had never gone back to uni.

@AuldAlliance - Our campus with 12-15k students on shouldn't have opened for hybrid teaching for 2 weeks. We should have focused on doing better online teaching and making provision for students without laptops/wifi, etc., which was done, but too late.

I bumped into a friend of dd's the other day. She had started her year abroad in France and she said it was a disaster. 300 students in a lecture hall with no distancing between them. All the students who went over (and I'm sure the French ones too) got covid. I'm not sure which university she went to and I'm sure it varies from university to university.

In the university I work in (Ireland), we were meant to start with a hybrid model. University management were insisting on 30% on-campus for everyone so we were supposed to arrange labs, lectures etc to meet that goal. Our intention was a to pretty much ignore that for larger classes and run some smaller classes in very large lecture halls.

There were some interesting differences by department. We tend to be a bit compliant. However, other departments just announced everything was online and ignored management. Dd is studying medicine and she was going to have stats labs in person and anatomy labs online.

Just before we opened, the government announced everything online bar essential labs, so thankfully we never had to do any face to face teaching. By all accounts, the student body is riddled with covid but while local rates had been increasing, they weren't out of line with the rest of the country so they don't appear to be spreading it.

Why a golden opportunity? Are you promoting the very concerning theory of herd immunity

In the 'student herd' its what is happening now, but uncontrolled and why there may be teens in icu - the odds are they would have got there anyway - the 'golden opportunity' is a 10 week isolation from their families.

Im saying a competent aporoach would have considered this, eg identified those less resilient souls who couldnt take a full 10 weeks without taking washing home etc and put them under remote provision - if they needed labs then theyd have to defer a term.

Blackbird
I think there is a very great deal of hot air about what will happen in Dover from January.
Because of people smuggling there are already thermal cameras and CO2 detectors on all berth gates.
Sniffer dogs and Border agents with microphones already roam the ships while they are in transit.
That will not change.
What WILL change immediately will be the passport checks into France

FWIW DD just tried to order a birthday gift for a friend in Belgium and UK addresses were not acceptable for billing as its an EU only product .....

Anyone on Twitter wanting a giggle should check out the Dept of International trade tweet about soy sauce and the responses.

Anyone on Twitter wanting a giggle should check out the Dept of International trade tweet about soy sauce and the responses.

If I could be bothered to look on the Brexit No Deal /food supplies threads, I expect there would have been some enthusiastic C&Ping of the DoI Japanese soy sauce Brexitatious benefits.

colouringindoors

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4062714-France-rumoured-to-go-back-into-nation-lockdown-from-midnight-tomorrow

thanks

PMK

for those who can't be bothered to find it (or doesn't believe it's there) - here's a lovely pic of the Farage Garage on Google Maps

pussycat
and the google reviews are rather splendid ;-)

Pussycat , that's excellent

For those wondering if its just Ministers who are clueless ....
so are their social media teams
www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/28/dfids-brexit-soy-sauce-price-cut-claim-prompts-backlash-bake-off

Just had an email from BigChoc
She reckons Germany will shut down all public things like gyms and restaurants and schools next week for three weeks
and she reckons Johnson will then play copy cat

@pussycatinboots

for those who can't be bothered to find it (or doesn't believe it's there) - here's a lovely pic of the Farage Garage on Google Maps

It's not a question of not believing, but as of 14:22 today: