Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

Here's hoping

CNN focusing on Pennsylvania in depth now.

edition.cnn.com/specials/live-cnni-uk

Philadelphia is a hive of activity
somewhere

[quote ListeningQuietly]Philadelphia is a hive of activity
somewhere

[/quote] Well Hall and Oates, naturally. Plus ol' Eltons "Philadelphia Freedom"

Liberty Bell, anyone ?

Those of you who understand the US presidential elections - when they say it's called does this mean that they know from the size of the electorate and the way the vote share is going for each candidate, that they can tell who will win? So with an electorate of 10000 and 6000 votes for candidate A, 3000 for B, and 1000 uncounted you know that B can't win?

Fox (and Associated Press) has already called Arizona.

So when the editor of The Nevada Independent is tweeting this:

Jon Ralston @RalstonReports
HERE'S WHERE WE ARE:

Washoe only has few thousand provisionals left -- should be a wash.

Few thousand rural votes left -- Biden will lose 2k max there, probably less.

That leaves Clark and tens of thousands of mail and provisionals. Little chance Dems lose there.

SO...

Biden is up by 11.4K right now in NV.

Dems are going to win these mail ballots coming in from Election Day and yesterday -- 63K. And they should win them decisively. That leaves 60K provisionals, which have been evenly split.

I see no path left for Trump here.

Fox therefore probably have a big call to make pretty soon.

Peregrina
The elections are called when there is no reasonable chance of a change.
eg Montana
99% counted
Trump has 57% of the vote
nothing Biden can do would change
(a) the number of votes still to be counted
(b) the fact that Montana has always been red

Remember that each state is counted on a county basis
(think polling districts into constituencies in the UK)
and some counties are tiny (popn under 5000)
others are huge (eg the one in Texas that includes Houston)

its all about probabilities

BUT
the key point is that when folks in the US say 2016 was an aberration, Trump does not speak for us
I will raise an eyebrow at many of them

Its a bit like the early WM threads where we fervently believed that the brexiters would realise the error of their ways.

We were in a bubble.
They are set in their views

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/4071098-Westministenders-Its-the-waiting-that-kills-you?watched=1

New thread

@Peregrina

Those of you who understand the US presidential elections - when they say it's called does this mean that they know from the size of the electorate and the way the vote share is going for each candidate, that they can tell who will win? So with an electorate of 10000 and 6000 votes for candidate A, 3000 for B, and 1000 uncounted you know that B can't win?

Basically yes. It's not official, not for a few more weeks, and even then there's the chance of "faithless" electors at the electoral college meeting, but that's rare and hasn't affect things in recent history.

So looking at Nevada, they know how many votes are still to be counted, can guess at how they'll break for each candidate based on voter registration in the areas with outstanding ballots, and once there's no or a highly improbable chance of the result being different than the current results indicate, the "decision desks" of the big news networks will "call" a state. Sometimes the call can be made very early - for example, statistically you could call a very red or blue state with less than half the votes counted.

This year, Arizona was probably called too early by most news organizations.

Mship
and even then there's the chance of "faithless" electors at the electoral college meeting, but that's rare and hasn't affect things in recent history.
lower chances since the SC ruling after 2018 .....

Good point LQ!

Fox therefore probably have a big call to make pretty soon.

They’d be handing the election to Biden, having called Arizona early.

Can’t even begin to imagine the Trump meltdown that will trigger