Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

Biden takes Michigan - still not won yet though.

So he’s now on 264 and winning any other state puts him over the line? Am I reading that correctly?

Oh. CNN still has him in 253.

Quite confused now. CNN has him on 253. I think that must be including Michigan. AP has him on 264 so they must have called Arizona as a win?

AP called Arizona yesterday, CNN hasn’t called it yet (but are reporting that a count update will be given shortly).

Right, OK. I get it. CNN are being very cautious with calling votes and it looks like AP have got a bit ahead of themselves calling Arizona for Biden.

Absentee ballot is going the opposite way in Arizona to elsewhere - appears to be going in Trump’s favour.

Sorry - crossed posts with you Sabrina.

Yes, that Rory Stewart piece is excoriating isn't it. It also made me sigh heavily that someone that intelligent isn't now in parliament but Nadine Dorries is.

Fuck with the Good Friday Agreement and wave goodbye to any US/UK trade deal under a Biden Presidency. Or, frankly, a Democratic House of Representatives.
They are fucked.

According to the Guardian Biden on 264 to Trumps 214 - with Biden needing 6 to win. So it's still not over yet, depending on who still needs to report the results.

Arizona is still pretty tight and shouldn't have been called yet.

I suspect today will be pretty anxious for everyone. Trump could still win, but the data is still tracking better for Biden. Dh has been calculating it since mid afternoon yesterday and following each update on numbers and its holding good (and similar to the Biden camp thinking).

Unless there is some irregularity in the voting that suddenly screws things up, Biden should get it. Stressing the should.

Personally we think Biden called it too early but then he maybe needed to calm nerves and tensions before night in the US.

We might have a firmer idea who has won today but with recounts and legal challenges i dont think we will definitely have a result today.

The message is firmly to hold your nerve (and dont panic until i start panicking!!!)

Apparently the numbers for Arizona are likely to tighten further but the last batch of votes are from democrat areas, and the expectation is that Biden can hold on. But yeah its nail biting.

Pennsylviania is looking slightly better for Biden than it was (if Biden gets PA he wins regardless of results elsewhere)

Georgia is absolutely to the very last vote. Biden could just do it on the basis of how the last batches from the counties still left to count have gone so far.

North Carolina was spitting distance for Biden but I think thats now too much of an ask and will stay Red.

Nevada is still a bit early to call but there are a lot of votes still to come in from the bluer parts of the state and so far Biden has been performing better than Clinton in them.

Arizona is going to be tighter than many thought. Ballots are currently more red than blue so Trump is closing Biden's lead but the Biden camp say the very last batch is from an area they expect to be much more heavily blue, so it will make you bite your nails till the bitter end.

Reminder:
Trump needs PA, NC, GA, NV, AZ to win.
Biden needs either PA or any combination of two of the others.

And that last post tells you exactly how much sleep ive had in the last two days...

So the international election observers
who are sent into cheery places like Belarus and Tanzania
have felt the need to comment on the USA
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/04/international-observers-us-election-trump-trust

Again, I am ONLY looking at the numbers on this site
fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2020-election-results-coverage/
until every valid vote is counted, the result is not final
it really is that simple.
I reckon Friday lunchtime

And then we will find out who Dominic Raab has to be nice to

So hypothetically, there could be a situation where neither get to the 270 threshold? If, say, Biden takes Arizona but Trump (god forbid) takes every other outstanding state.

I’m trying to get my head round what happens in a contingent election. Google tells me the House of Representatives would vote for the President but the Senate would vote for the VP.

Does that mean we could have Biden as President and Pence as VP?

My mind is well and truly boggled.

No. the maths is that one of them HAS to win
but we have to wait

Interesting that news of an EU-UK deal suddenly starts circulating as Biden is tipped to win. If I credited the Brexiteers and Johnson with the slightest scintilla of intelligence it would be expected as a way to avoid coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

And it seems that the idea of the UK lowering it's food standards is good for poorer countries (what you mean the countries that weren't poor until the UK nicked all their wealth, DGR ? Yes - those countries.)

Does that mean we could have Biden as President and Pence as VP?

I think that was the background to the last season of "Homeland" - and in that they made reference that it has happened before.

@FlouncingBabooshka

So hypothetically, there could be a situation where neither get to the 270 threshold? If, say, Biden takes Arizona but Trump (god forbid) takes every other outstanding state.

I’m trying to get my head round what happens in a contingent election. Google tells me the House of Representatives would vote for the President but the Senate would vote for the VP.

Does that mean we could have Biden as President and Pence as VP?

My mind is well and truly boggled.

No Nebraska saved us from that possible fate.

Could you explain why Nebraska saved us from that fate?

@Peregrina

Could you explain why Nebraska saved us from that fate?

Because it made a 270/270 split impossible (I'm guessing).

Peregrina
Have a look here
www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/
Nebraska gave one of their votes to Biden so is cannot be a draw

Ah, OK.

So Biden needed 6 more of whatever to get to the 270 threshold, and last time I looked Trump was on 214, so needed 56.

270 of what though - is it people who sit in the electoral college, and if the state declares for a Democrat they all vote for Biden?

Peregrina
Only Maine and Nebraska split their votes.
Every other state is winner takes all
and there have been SC rulings about the college not following the popular vote
interesting times