Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

It’s CNN. It’s definitely math.

MATH

earlier this afternoon, CBS said that Biden had c3 million more than Trump. So his popular vote majority is likely to be more than that, but like 2016, that doesn't mean a scooby unless he wins the Electoral College as well.

Thank you Prettybird. I hadn’t heard anything about the way the popular vote was going so this is good to know. While I realise it doesn’t have a bearing on the result, I was scaring myself imagining the fury Trump would whip up amongst his supporters if he lost the election but won the popular vote.

Praying he doesn’t win either...

@RedToothBrush

Wisconsin looks like its blue. And we think it escapes a recount.

Apparently not, Trump has called for a recount at least

@mathanxiety

MATH

Babooshka
I have the FiveThirtyEight website open in a tab permanently at the moment.
It reminds me very much of these threads

• quiet analysis
• links to reliable sources
• proper statistics

as at 6.06 pm GMT it was
86% of ballots counted
Biden = 69,409,067
Trump = 66,518,197

Apparently not, Trump has called for a recount at least

Its not within the automatic margin for a recount (we've checked). It doesn't mean that there won't be one. He really needs an existing underlying reason to challenge the result in Wisconsin though.

Historically when there have been recounts in the state the numbers have only alternated by a hundred or so votes.

But then (as I will say until Biden is safely in the White House) this is Trump.

Noting of course, Trump's success rate with the courts.

A federal judge was so angered by the US Postal Service's inability to sweep its facilities for ballots yesterday afternoon, following a court order to do so, that he said he will want answers under oath from Postmaster General Louis DeJoy.

"I agree the Postmaster is either going to have to be deposed or testify before me under oath," federal Judge Emmet Sullivan said on Wednesday. "

He said he was not pleased the USPS couldn't comply with the Election Day court order, and didn't notify him until the court's deadline passed that they didn't have personnel on site in facilities to look for ballots in the mid-afternoon.

Not this is NOT a democratic legal challenge in Georgia but a judge unhappy at previous court order prior to close of polls.

Is the Wisconsin margin outside of 1%? The rules say:

If a race stays within a 1% margin, a candidate in Wisconsin can request a recount within three business days of the results.

No legal reason required.

LQ point of order: it's not a UK wide lockdown, just England.

Ah, could be. We thought it was a 0.5% margin of error.

Icould
Yes, sorry, the new English lockdown
but as Wales has a population barely 3 times larger than my county
the number of people affected by this new insanity is rather greater

I'm in a strange hinterland between being full of nervous adrenaline and needing matchsticks to keep my eyes open. I hope you'll let me sit a while with you all. DH woke me at 5am, just an hour after I'd gone to sleep. He was full of despair, and all day we've been trying to hold back a tiny sliver of hope. Watching with interest to see how a viable legal challenge could be made...

@RedToothBrush

A federal judge was so angered by the US Postal Service's inability to sweep its facilities for ballots yesterday afternoon, following a court order to do so, that he said he will want answers under oath from Postmaster General Louis DeJoy.

"I agree the Postmaster is either going to have to be deposed or testify before me under oath," federal Judge Emmet Sullivan said on Wednesday. "

He said he was not pleased the USPS couldn't comply with the Election Day court order, and didn't notify him until the court's deadline passed that they didn't have personnel on site in facilities to look for ballots in the mid-afternoon.

Not this is NOT a democratic legal challenge in Georgia but a judge unhappy at previous court order prior to close of polls.

Now in the UK, the USPS would have the perfectly acceptable excuse (as deployed by the Home Office) that it's too difficult to comply with the law, so they don't need to.

Recount parameters here:

ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Wisconsin

Ah, you have M&S in a page a few times, and all sorts of stories start appearing.

Back to Brexit

uk.sports.yahoo.com/news/marks-and-spencer-brexit-no-deal-food-prices-082219333.html

Marks & Spencer (MKS.L) has warned that the failure to get a trading deal with the European Union could lead to higher food prices at the tills in the UK.

(contd)

I think there's a lot to be said for the "Woollies" test for a physical shop. You should know immediately you go in what the shop is. As soon as you find yourself wondering "what sort of shop is this ?" their days are numbered.

WH Smith anyone?

Shops still open in Scotland even in the Level 3 areas. Key "extra" restriction on Level 3 is no alcohol to be served in hospitality, even outside. But cafes and restaurants are open up until 6pm to meet one other household (max 6 people from 2 households, but under 12s don't count in the numbers).

@FlouncingBabooshka

I think there's a lot to be said for the "Woollies" test for a physical shop. You should know immediately you go in what the shop is. As soon as you find yourself wondering "what sort of shop is this ?" their days are numbered.

WH Smith anyone?

and Boots.

But as was pointed out (possibly on these very threads) WH Smug have a lot of revenue from the branches they have in hospitals. Although that business model may now be dangerously obsolete since March.

Will Biden do it? Wisconsin is Bidens almost trouble at Detroit with Trump supporters trying to force way in to 'observe' count lol!
Let's pray he does!
Trump tweeting if Biden wins he will leave the country.........bye bye!!

[quote SabrinaThwaite]Recount parameters here:

ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Wisconsin[/quote]
For elections where more than 4,000 votes are cast, the margin is less than or equal to 0.25% of the total vote. If the margin is greater than those covered by the state, the requester pays.
Interesting. How flush is Trump's campaign now? Or will he crowdfund it?

@mathanxiety

MATH

"Mathma"

"Biden has a clearer path to victory than Trump" Ch4 news

Interesting. How flush is Trump's campaign now? Or will he crowdfund it?

Seems like Trump is already emailing supporters for cash to pay for legal challenges.

Trump tweeting if Biden wins he will leave the country.........bye bye!!

Yes, like various Tories in the past who were going to leave the UK when Labour got in, but funnily enough, didn't leave until they got the Brexit they were desperate for.