Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

Meant talking up for Biden of course.

CBS is also saying Arizona leaning Biden - but with no more confidence than that. Also saying that the mail-in/absentee ballots will be key.

It's a bit blah when the dems are talking about 2024 in an optimistic way. 😒

I woke up at 4:30 with a pounding heart and feeling of dread, put on the telly and now I have an even more pounding heart and worse feeling of dread.

This despite going to bed last night already assuming that it wasn't going to be as good for the Democrats as the polls had suggested in the run-up, and cringing at their excitable hubris, because we've seen how these things go repeatedly now.

@TheElementsOfMedical

I woke up at 4:30 with a pounding heart and feeling of dread, put on the telly and now I have an even more pounding heart and worse feeling of dread.

This despite going to bed last night already assuming that it wasn't going to be as good for the Democrats as the polls had suggested in the run-up, and cringing at their excitable hubris, because we've seen how these things go repeatedly now.

Yep!

Trump will win by sound of it on radio 4. God help America.

And God help the world.

And God help us as a Trump win reinforces Johnson's position, probable hard Brexit, and further UK's lurch to the right.

What is the matter with people? It's truly depressing.

@DrBlackbird

And God help us as a Trump win reinforces Johnson's position, probable hard Brexit, and further UK's lurch to the right.

What is the matter with people? It's truly depressing.

A-fucking-men!

I think Western societies are destroying democracy. No middle ground anywhere. It's either far left or far right. Corruption and money speaks. The people are fickle and like sheep. It's a sad world and a third and final World War creaks ever nearer as countries become more Nationalistic and are led by populist leaders.

Tuning into the US election this morning, it occurs to me that if voters want to be lead by entertainment celebs rather than political ones, we should be keeping an eye on YouTube & Insta for clues on who future world leaders will be.

The question is, who is the next Trump? They need to be rich (or have rich backers), have a well established personal brand, and sound folksy.

Trump sounds like he's declaring victory right now. Need more caffeine before I can figure out what he's rambling about! While claiming if they don't win its fraud. Sure this was predicted earlier

I don't get the pessimism here. Yes it's not a blowout but that was never a certainty, and there are still several highly plausible paths to a Biden win.

The danger has always been Trump muddying the waters in a close race by falsely declaring victory early (essentially what he's doing on TV right now) and the fallout of that. But a clear result, even if close, is not going to be touched with a barge pole by the Supreme Court. Chief Justice Roberts is an offensive arse but he's not corrupt.

May I return to the thread please?

I was a regular until last year, with a different username. I had to take a break. It all got too much for me. I’d gone on all the marches, I’d written to my MP, the PM, I’d helped at local pro EU stall and I really felt like I had to take a step back from Brexit for the sake of my mental health. Trouble is, there’s nowhere to step back to.

With everything that’s happened here over the last few months, and with what’s happening right now in the US, I really feel like I need to be back here.

I’ve been up all night, DH is asleep. Sitting here alone, exhausted and so worried for the future.

Have just watched Trump’s speech with a weird mixture of horror and resignation.

Trump declaring victory before votes were counted was, of course, his plan all along. Fox will back him.

The Democrats just don't have sufficiently cunning and ruthless strategists like the republicans who are willing (happy) to play absolutely every trick in the book to remain in power. Nice doesn't win American elections.

It'll probably turn out like 2016 and ultimately Biden will have won the popular vote. Or might even be like 2000 when Gore conceded to Bush despite winning (too late).

I'm more depressed about Senate. Was hoping against hope the Democrats took the Senate. They could've kept Trump in check.

@OhLookHeKickedTheBall

Trump sounds like he's declaring victory right now. Need more caffeine before I can figure out what he's rambling about! While claiming if they don't win its fraud. Sure this was predicted earlier

Fucking hell, the first time in ages my absentee ballot in Michigan (for Biden) might be counted, and Trump won't even wait to 'win' until the votes are counted?!? Hateful narcissistic bully. Why oh why do so many vote for these strongman types? I miss Obama (who wasn't perfect) sooooo much right now.

So Trump’s ramble was along the lines of discounting hundreds of thousands of early votes or votes that are yet to be counted because he thinks he’s already won and thereby disenfranchise US voters?

“Democracy” in action

I like your pragmatic optimism Mship

But a too close or even just close call is not going to be settled by the Supreme Court. It'll be the voters taking to the streets and news stations. Don't you see Trump voters being much more likely to do that? And Trump supporting media / radio personalities? With Trump himself stirring as hard as he can...

Recipe for disaster one way or another. I'd be thrilled, absolutely thrilled to have it turn out differently. But I saw Biden as needing to win decisively for any chance of a better outcome.

He's asking for the early and mail in votes to stop being counted, declaring his clear victory in certain states if you discount them obviously. Claiming disenfranchising voters. Because the best way to stop that is to disenfranchise other voters. Nice little nod at the end about going to the Supreme Court, almost makes you wonder why they stacked it.

Not that any of this is news and wasn't predicted before.

CNN reporting that if Biden wins 75% of the Pennsylvania mail in votes yet to be counted, he could take the state (big ask but possible as the mail in votes strongly favours him).

I feel now as I imagine moderate people felt in 1933 Germany - Hitler had got in with a reduced vote share, so they thought it might be OK still. Far from it; twelve more years of hell ensued, and then their country was physically divided for another 45 years.

@SabrinaThwaite

CNN reporting that if Biden wins 75% of the Pennsylvania mail in votes yet to be counted, he could take the state (big ask but possible as the mail in votes strongly favours him).

If they are allowed to be counted more like.

Which is the big question.

Biden had to be doing better than this by now to win imho. And him not being closer to the finishing line just mean Trump has the opportunity to seize control regardless of what those final few votes actually say.

It's state by state.

Mkraju on Twitter reports:
GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg says there’s no direct right of appeal to SCOTUS to stop counting ballots. He says they can challenge individual states over procedures. Ginsberg says courts would believe Trump’s lawsuit would be a “massive disenfranchisement that would be frowned upon”

I would also draw your attention to David Allen Green, who has previously got a lot of respect on these threads.

My own view is that Trump likes to create leverage so he can make one of his "deals"

If he makes people worried that he will not leave office easily, he then has leverage to make a deal in return for a smooth transition

I may be wrong, but he has form for conjuring leverage

This is not necessarily about clinging on to power, but about protecting himself from prosecution after leaving.

@TheMShip

It's state by state.

Mkraju on Twitter reports:
GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg says there’s no direct right of appeal to SCOTUS to stop counting ballots. He says they can challenge individual states over procedures. Ginsberg says courts would believe Trump’s lawsuit would be a “massive disenfranchisement that would be frowned upon”

Im not sure that would stop him trying.

Even if just for him to declare 'postal votes are fraud' if they still are counted and go Biden's way in some states and Trump ultimately wins.

Its a useful tool for him going forward to remove checks and balances and to aget rid of postal votes in future.