Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

@Dontlickthetrolley

Press conference 4pm

Yet again the Government bypassing parliament to announce policy changes without accountability or scrutiny

squid

I found the attached plot on Fiona O'Leary's Twitter. It's from SPI-M, which feeds into SAGE. She comments:

"Rather transfixed by SW where cases WERE running lower compared to elsewhere but where the R rate now maybe above 2 (REACT).
Looks to exceed capacity next week and to exceed surge capacity INC Nightingale by 24th t.co/YSGJPG6xxO"

Monday is the last day the government can act to prevent capacity being overwhelmed, by which they mean no treatment for some emergency patients (tiny footnote on image).

squid I’m really sorry it’s so difficult already. The whole thing is so unfair for NHS staff. Will people be clapping for carers on Thursdays again? I doubt it, they may just be expecting carers’ selflessness this time.
We’ve got lockdown fatigue, compassion fatigue, gratitude fatigue. And it’s not yet November.

Best wishes and sincere thanks to all frontline workers.

Its very surreal because down here in the very South it still feels normal.
Our big hospital is nowhere near overwhelmed.
Its why a national lockdown will be a problem to enforce
and just drive cases underground to spread and pop up later.

I think that's the really the main reason why you want a national lockdown. IN some areas they have never come out of lockdown as such. Basically because instead of waiting until the R number abd cases was low EVERYWHERE they stopped the lockdown when they had reached the threshold in the South/London.
Having a full on lockdown in the North and nothing in the South would be extremely damaging for the country (and not just the economy of the North)

@squid4

Yep I agree. I suspect you are in the area than me. It's shit....
Companies here are now working with the assumption that part of the workforce will be off ill at some point and they just need to rotate people .
The problem is - what is the alternative for all those small busibesses? Of they stop now, put everyone on self isolation etc... they sink and their employees with it. :(

www.worldnewsreport1.com/2020/10/30/plant-inspectors-and-rising-prices-uk-garden-industry-set-for-brexit-shock-politics/

@Meuniere

Its very surreal because down here in the very South it still feels normal. Our big hospital is nowhere near overwhelmed. *Its why a national lockdown will be a problem to enforce and just drive cases underground to spread and pop up later.*

I think that's the really the main reason why you want a national lockdown. IN some areas they have never come out of lockdown as such. Basically because instead of waiting until the R number abd cases was low EVERYWHERE they stopped the lockdown when they had reached the threshold in the South/London.
Having a full on lockdown in the North and nothing in the South would be extremely damaging for the country (and not just the economy of the North)

This.

General feeling amongst northerners is the wedge issue over local lockdown and how its producing tension.

That document over bed capacity is no surprise to me. I've been told only today by a friend that they know of friends who are now working 6 or 7 day weeks at the moment.

The bed issue is the one I've been trying to scream about. Its the only thing that matters and that things were worse than being said (and not in Greater Manchester either).

The government has firmly taken their eye off the ball on this.

Our big hospital is nowhere near overwhelmed.
Its why a national lockdown will be a problem to enforce

One of the reasons for locking down nationally is to ensure that you have some empty hospitals to which you can transfer patients from overwhelmed ones.

In France that worked well in wave 1 because only a small number of areas were affected. This time everywhere is affected to a greater or lesser degree and they should have acted at least 2 weeks earlier to preserve hospital capacity.

I'd say people are a lot less supportive of the lockdown this time. Yes if asked most will say they support a lockdown, but many people including myself intend to ignore a lot of the rules (which are objectively stupid and for the most part lacking any obvious public health justification). With so many school and uni students out and about, there won't be the capacity to check people.

Btw it turns out my son in year 1 of an engineering course has in-person lessons starting on Monday. On Wednesday, Macron said distance learning for all students - but it turns out that there are so many exceptions to this that most STEM students will have some face to face classes.

It has been a monumental failure of communication and planning. The FR government channelling Boris certainly wasn't something I expected.

Went to a supermarket. It was like Christmas inside. I actually miss the queuing outside. There was little to no social distancing going on inside- and it made me feel really anxious.

So press conference at 4pm. Numbers are going up quite rapidly in my area. So I was expecting to end up in tier 2 fairly soon.

I was expecting to go on placement for my degree course fairly soon. Now expecting that to be cancelled again.

And this is just Covid- not even thought about Brexit today.

Press conference now 5pm

Squid
we’re supposed to be going into Tier 3 on Monday anyway so not sure how much difference lockdown will make, I’m sure it will be as clear as mud after the press conference. What a shambles!

www.itv.com/news/2020-10-31/covid-what-are-the-new-lockdown-measures-for-england
Peston with the (apparent) scoop on restrictions - a national tier 4 from Thursday.

He's waiting until Thursday? What a prick. 🤬
Another 4 days wasted.

squid Thank you, and I am so sorry it's come to this again 💐

So, unless I've missed something, the UKs second wave has been fuelled by people jetting off to Spain and back before Eating Out to Help Out ?

Have I got that wrong ?

DGR
No you are correct
And Johnson has chickened out again ....

All very well talking about food standards in the UK, US and EU. Maybe a much better fucking idea would be to get some a grip on some Covid standards first ? It's fucking insane you can go to Spain before Wales.

No wonder all the good ones are dying - I dread to think what God has planned for the rest of us. I wonder how busy Church will be tomorrow ? (Idly wonders about a round robin to Protestant and Catholic churches via mosque, synagogue and gudwara, just to hedge bets ...)

Briefing now 6pm or later... what's going on?

ICould
This page is keeping up quite well
www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/oct/31/uk-coronavirus-boris-johnson-to-give-press-conference-on-new-lockdown-live-news

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

Briefing now 6pm or later... what's going on?

Blah blah blah blah and you're no wiser than you were before.

Feel free to quote this post with an @ for me if I'm wrong.

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

Briefing now 6pm or later... what's going on?

Maybe he's hiding in the fridge again?

squid ((hugs))

Wtaf is this Govt doing???

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

Briefing now 6pm or later... what's going on?

I imagine there are some backbenchers they've not been able to contact yet - not that a mismanaged communication event from the UK government is anything other than SOP these days.

I fear the longer the delay (presser was supposed to be at 4!) the more watered-down this will be.