Westminstenders: What the winds bring

[RedToothBrush]

The next few weeks are crucial. Eu talks, covid handling, the US election and any other unexpected events (its nearly November, lets face it will probably be the weather).

It feels a little like the car crash in slow motion is about to hit the wall of reality. I guess that just means all there is left to do is to brace for impact.

[quote Arborea]Was it RedToothbrush who pointed out how the weekend Times is used by Downing Street to float new policy proposals? twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1322294630906503171[/quote]
This is more than a trial balloon. Its the news ive been expecting for a few days. The trial balloons were up a few days ago. And the bbc ran a big headline story about Christmas and covid earlier this week. That was your dead giveaway.

Why?

The numbers are bad. Really fucking bad.

Johnson's choice is to either do a national lockdown to 'save Christmas' even if it fails to produce a situation good enough for that or to carry on without doing anything.

That would lead to him being 'the grinch who stole Christmas' with T3 + conditions everywhere across the country and/or the PM who 'killed your granny on Christmas Day' if he's seen to be not doing something 'meaningful'. Especially given Wales has already done so.

The news that France, Germany and now Belgium have all announced some form of 'national lockdown' has only piled the extra pressure on, politically.

Johnson has no where to go on this all week. Sunak Rishi has toned down the language opposing it in the last couple of days too.

And i seriously doubt both the times and mail would run such a story as the front page unless its pretty much a dead cert to happen now.

We've also had 'where Boris' trending again on twitter. He seems to come out of the 9wood work with a big announcement when that happens. He wants to look like the strong leader, rather than the one who has been dithering all week on this...

rather than the one who has been dithering all week on this...

Or dithering all month, given we know that Sage recommended an immediate two week lockdown more than 5 weeks ago.

@SabrinaThwaite

rather than the one who has been dithering all week on this...

Or dithering all month, given we know that Sage recommended an immediate two week lockdown more than 5 weeks ago.

Quite. But he was scared of the support Rishi has.... Hence Warrington

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
Don’t think the cabinet was told that we were heading into tougher lockdown in England before @SkyNews and others media found out.

As for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland....

And

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
I’m told that there are angry cabinet ministers tonight to discover from the media that Matt Hancock appears to have won the argument in government about lockdown

And

Sam Coates Sky @samcoatessky
Even MORE cross tonight, I’m told, are Tory MPs in Wales who have been attacking Labour First Minister’s two week “fire-break”

This is not a drill.

Public opinion broadly supports a national lockdown. The government has announced it this way to head off the internal dispute in the face of that...

Quite. But he was scared of the support Rishi has.... Hence Warrington

Sorry auto correct on that hence why.

Public opinion broadly supports a national lockdown

Usually, it's a matter of trivia to engineer public opinion - the public wants what the public gets &c. The fact this shower of incompetent dozy fuckers has to now keep bending to public opinion rather than shaping it has an awful lot to do with the trust they have pissed away. If it starts to become systemic, it's a fair question to ask how the UK can be effectively governed in future - you simply can't lead from behind.

.

I am confused. Tim Spector and the latest Zoe report seem to contradict the surge etc. Who is right?

@DGRossetti

Public opinion broadly supports a national lockdown

Usually, it's a matter of trivia to engineer public opinion - the public wants what the public gets &c. The fact this shower of incompetent dozy fuckers has to now keep bending to public opinion rather than shaping it has an awful lot to do with the trust they have pissed away. If it starts to become systemic, it's a fair question to ask how the UK can be effectively governed in future - you simply can't lead from behind.

That question has been pertinent to Brexit and other issues for as long as i can now remember - government has become reactionary and short sighted and only able to fire fight the latest political crisis rather than actively have a cohesive policy. May was guilty of it but Johnson has done it more. Hence a zillion and one uturns.

So i dont think its a covid problem. Its a problem with ideology hitting the wall of reality and the country being led by people who dont understand how the country operates on a practical level. And that has to come back to life experience.

Johnson's only option to stay in power long term is a dictatorial one. Whether the Conservative party twig this and tolerate it or rebel is your key. They don't have an alternative leader capable of that though so it then depends on what the public and opposition do. I guess its a similar calculation as is happening in the US about self interest of the Republic Party and what aspect of their world view is the most important and whether they fear their finances being investigated or taxed more...

I am not sure that the majority SUPPORTS a mew lockdown. But rather that it’s seen as unavoidable, esp seen the decisions taken in France and Germany, belgium etc....

The second lockdown isn’t welcome in France atm for example. Lots of grumbles around from what I can see.

The issue I have is lockdown fatigue in the most affected areas. In Bradford, for example, they’ve had 3 weeks with not restrictions’ (or rather very little restrictions) before they went back into special measures (and basically a light lockdown). The people in those areas (manchester and Leicester are probably good examples too) will find another lockdown much harder than those in tier 1 and the south who probably felt things had gone back to normal or close to normal....

@Meuniere

I am not sure that the majority SUPPORTS a mew lockdown. But rather that it’s seen as unavoidable, esp seen the decisions taken in France and Germany, belgium etc....

The second lockdown isn’t welcome in France atm for example. Lots of grumbles around from what I can see.

The issue I have is lockdown fatigue in the most affected areas. In Bradford, for example, they’ve had 3 weeks with not restrictions’ (or rather very little restrictions) before they went back into special measures (and basically a light lockdown). The people in those areas (manchester and Leicester are probably good examples too) will find another lockdown much harder than those in tier 1 and the south who probably felt things had gone back to normal or close to normal....

Its a public recognition of policy failure thats at play and the need to reenter the extreme crisis management phase.

It couldn't be more damning.

"Johnsons only option to stay in power is a dictatorial one"

Unlikely, as that requires a serious amount of legwork. Say whatever else you want about Putin, but that man shows how much work is required to keep an iron grip on power.

If it were the Labour party, Johnson would have a chance at that leadership type but the Conservatives are known for ruthless deposition. In fact, Johnson is counting on it. I can't see him enthusiastic about solving the endless problems caused by his choice of Brexit whilst being endlessly criticised about it.

My worry about the effectiveness of a lockdown is that it relies on individuals complying, and there's not much sign of that. Government imposing a lockdown achieves nothing on its own.

A belated PMK having been abroad to a drei grenze region, where people criss-cross the borders daily for work. This made me realise how we need international policies to get on top of Covid 19, and this in turn made me realise how stupid the effort being spent on Brexit was. The energy should be put on international co-operation.

The Government imposing lockdown now achieves nothing when people like Cummings and Johnson Senior flout the rules with impunity. If they had set a proper example there might have been more compliance.

Added to which those smug, well fed Tories are too mean to pay for children to have a free lunch.

The lockdown will not work because too many groups think it does not apply to them
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-54754841

I am confused. Tim Spector and the latest Zoe report seem to contradict the surge etc. Who is right?

Well you are comparing apples and pears since Zoe is based on the app and is real time and does not pick up asymptomatic cases or cover demographics who don’t use the app, most significantly care homes. The ONS are either using actual test results or using testing of random samples (which will pick up asymptomatic cases) from a week ago?

I am actually confused by Zoe at the moment, and I have been using it since March and found it really useful when other data sources were not. However now it is saying that there are roughly twice as many cases in the borough as our Council are putting on our local data site, which is quite a difference even accounting for those who have not managed to get a test. We are a very middle class borough and a lot of people use the app (over 8000, somewhere like Doncaster only has 2000) so I am wondering if that skews the figures?

As I have never had a Covid test I have always answered that question in the negative. Now however they have changed the question to include antibody tests. I did the ONS antibody test last week and that was positive so I have answered yes but there was no clarifying question for me to say it was an antibody test, and almost certainly I had Covid asymptomatically in early March (when another family member who has tested positive on another more reliable antibody test lost their sense of taste and smell) so I was actually part of London’s unknown first wave. So have they now included me as a current case?

Now this is where BCF would come in handy

Where is BCF?

I keep meaning to write here but what would it be worth anyway... basically the hospitals are fucked and this imminent lockdown might help the south, but it's too late for us. Going in tomorrow as an extra shift after yet more begging messages asking for any staff to work any hours, they're switching us off days to an emergency rota so there's more of us in the evening/at night, no beds, opening up extra temporary bedspaces (with what staff...) a third of the hospital inpatients have covid. They're going to have to stop elective work but they haven't committed to it yet. Another hospital a mate works in has 40 patients waiting in A&E for a hospital bed, ambulances queueing outside. Staff are going off sick again. Everyone is scared. Not winter yet. Morale is very, very low. This is worse than April already and we don't know how bad this is going to get and we're scared.
Sorry I could write more detail but I'm exhausted and not sleeping very well.

I understood that Zoe and ONS are saying 50,000 cases a day, and Imperial are suggesting 100,000?

Oh squid, I'm so sorry.

@HoneysuckIejasmine

Oh squid, I'm so sorry.

💐 xx

Have you ever heard of a prime minister resigning near the beginning of his term in office because he doesn't fancy the job anymore?
Power is addictive. I wouldn't put money on Johnson going early.
And remember too that Johnson may well be corrupt. He may be making money behind the scenes which he won't have the same access to if he resigns.

((( squid )))
Its very surreal because down here in the very South it still feels normal.
Our big hospital is nowhere near overwhelmed.
Its why a national lockdown will be a problem to enforce
and just drive cases underground to spread and pop up later.

Emily
I've just been into our local big Sainsburys - I'll bet none of those people are doing the Zoe app.
Up at Waitrose in the next town I know that about 3/4 of the clientele are doing it.
How many of the kids at that Shisha lounge will be doing it ?

I am afraid it does not surprise me squid that you are overwhelmed.

I ventured up to Central London yesterday, walked everywhere. It was heaving with children, I am guessing a lot were from elsewhere in the U.K. and not a few from Europe and the USA. No social distancing from the foreign tourists especially the Americans. Lots of people with suitcases. It was a perfect melting pot for Covid. The people I know who travel to Central London to work on the frontline are furious. Whilst I can understand people deciding to take the risk of the underground and crowded places because they have to or accept the personal risk but why would you put your children at risk? Why did they not lockdown before half term? It is like February half term leading to the London wave all over again.

Press conference 4pm