Westminstenders: Prepare for what we said would never happen

[RedToothBrush]

I think that there may be a run on tinned tomatoes and pasta coming. Pizza will no longer have mozzarella in 2021.

On the plus side turnips are in season.

Of course BJ should carry out the NI protocol, but if after a reasonable wait he hasn't even started to organise the Irish Sea border and isn't going to,

then Ireland and the EU can't simply leave a gaping hole in the SM border
They would never let BJ in effect win SM access for GB without accepting SM conditions, or other countries would soon demand similar

The NI card is the main one the Brexiters have had to play all along and they have used it

@BigChocFrenzy - That's why I think the RoI govt can only set up checkpoints on the main roads, miles away from the border
and ignore the minor border roads that the locals use

I'm not convinced. Any border infrastructure, regardless of the size of the road, would be difficult politically. This is the one question that none of our politicians are willing to answer.

I suspect no checkpoints will be put up anywhere by Ireland for as long as possible. There will be an element of playing chicken with the UK. The EU will allow some leeway in the beginning but it will have to be addressed eventually.

Ireland and the EU can't simply leave a gaping hole in the SM border

That is true but I think the hope would be that things will be so bad on the French side that the UK will have to comply with the NI Protocol in order to get any easing on that side

Irish border smuggling was a HUGE problem before the Single market

The UK Customs link I posted has some la la stuff about goods "in transit" to another Customs jurisdiction ie Ireland
but its utterly meaningless without enforcement

Smuggling is going to be a huge problem across the Channel again

Hamble le Rice and Lymington will become crime hotspots
In Deal the smuggling tunnels will be unblocked under the houses
Newhaven might even get busy

.

Smuggling is going to be a huge problem across the Channel again

have to ask DF the best routes ...

@DGRossetti

.

Oh dear Lord I can see Farage's face right now as the Belgian boats advance towards us across the North Sea...

The problem with border checks on the major thoroughfares for haulage is that as soon as there becomes a financial incentive to avoid these checkpoints (to avoid tariffs on agricultural produce for example) some traffic will start using the other currently 'local' routes.

The tariff on lamb alone into the EU will be easily £30-35/head on a lamb worth £85/90, and there will be a significant incentive to smuggle them across the border. 400 lambs on a lorry is £12k per trip. I'm sure people are smuggled for less.

Currently food standards here and in EU are aligned so it's 'just' an issue of lost revenue, but if UK starts to diverge on standards then risk to EU is the small local routes are means for lower standard food to make it's way to Ireland, and from there into the continent. The EU cannot allow that.

Small local routes won't just mean a few lambs being trundled over the border by a local farmer, it'll be an organised enterprise before you can say mousakka.

Smuggling is going to be a huge problem across the Channel again

It never went away (although I agree it may get worse).

My friend who lives near Dunkerque used to work in Belgium at a petrol station that sold tobacco. Actually most of her work was selling thousands of euros of cigarettes to eastern European lorry drivers who smuggled them into the U.K. Transactions totalling €5k weren't unusual.

The road where she worked was lined with other similar businesses, we used to call it smugglers' alley.

Business faded a bit after Brexit due to the collapse in the pound (sterling depreciation gobbled up a lot of the profit margin) but I'd guess that it's going to take off again, although the profitable product lines might be different.

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-utter-rubbish-michael-gove-immigration-a4572201.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1603133676
Theresa May appears to mouth 'utter rubbish' at Michael Gove during Brexit update in the Commons

Theresa May appeared to mouth "utter rubbish" as Michael Gove spoke about the UK's ability to "co-operate more effectively" with border security outside the EU.

The former Conservative Prime Minister had urged ministers to consider the risks of a no-deal scenario for the UK, particularly on matters related to security.

Mrs May told the Commons: “The Government appears resigned to the prospect of no deal, yet one area which they should not be resigned to the prospect of no deal is in security.”

The MP for Maidenhead said neither Mr Gove nor Boris Johnson had mentioned security in recent statements, adding: “Will [Mr Gove] confirm that if the UK walks away with no-deal then our police and law enforcement agencies will no longer have the necessary access to databases, such as PNR (Passenger Name Record), in order to continue to identify and catch criminals and potential terrorists in order to keep us safe?”

Mr Gove said “significant progress” has been made over security co-operation, adding: “But it is the case that the EU are insisting that before we have access to systems, like the Schengen Information System, we have to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice – we cannot accept that."

Mrs May reacted with shocked expressions. She repeatedly said “what?” in disbelief and appeared to mouth “utter rubbish” as Mr Gove continued.

Oh the irony. All the times we sat watching May shouting 'utter rubbish' at her...

The border in Ireland will be a huge problem - and likely the main reason why the Uk govt think the EU will blink at the last moment

The govt may be obstinate enough to keep refusing to honour the NI protocol for several months, a year, while the economy & Sterling crash down the toilet.
They only need to keep their own supporters on board, so would likely play very dirty wrt smears against domstic opposition and the EU.

If the EU and Ireland can delay long enough - maybe if other WTO members don't object - then the actions of the next POTUS could be crucial

imo:

If Trump gets in again, then IFF he actually wants a deal he would force BJ the next PM to honour the NI Protocol, s.t. the bill gets passed by Congress
However, even with the PM just swallowing US terms, that won't be for a year or more.

If the Uk and / or Trump are not that interested in the deal passing, then Trump won't bother about NI at all.
He doesn't need to consider Irish-American voters any more

If Biden gets in, he would pressure the UK from January, when he takes office, imdependent of any future trade deal.
So timing then would be OK, would likely avoid ever having a border in Ireland

(FT paywall) UK government signals post-Brexit changes to insurance rules

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.ft.com/content/d02079ad-141b-4ccb-9ec1-af4b74d7e399" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.ft.com/content/d02079ad-141b-4ccb-9ec1-af4b74d7e399</a>

The UK government is planning post-Brexit changes to some of the most contentious aspects of insurance regulation in a move likely to signal a departure from EU rules.

UK insurers must comply with Solvency II, the EU’s insurance capital regime, which came into force in 2016.
But industry executives have long complained that the rules are too complex and do not suit the way the UK insurance sector works.

Once the Brexit transition period ends on December 31, the government will be free to set its own regulations. Ahead of that, the government on Monday launched a review of the way Solvency II is applied in the UK.

At the top of the agenda is the risk margin - the part of Solvency II that is most hated by the UK insurance industry
and which has also been criticised by the regulator, the Prudential Regulation Authority.

The risk margin is an extra layer of capital that insurers have to hold against some types of long-term business such as annuities.
But insurers complain that it is too volatile, and rises too much when interest rates are low.
...
Not all UK insurers are keen to see wholesale changes to Solvency II.
Life insurers, which tend to be focused on UK customers, have been pushing for changes to the regime for many years.

But the City of London’s commercial insurers, which sell cover for everything from shipping to cyber attacks, have a much more international customer base.

They are keen for the UK’s rules to have regulatory equivalence with those in the rest of the EU.
Wide-ranging changes to the UK regulatory regime could threaten that status.

(FT paywall) Manchester united as mayor fights London over virus

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.ft.com/content/beb57271-e359-4a21-bcc4-77fa5099015c" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.ft.com/content/beb57271-e359-4a21-bcc4-77fa5099015c</a>

Mr Burnham is backed by all 10 borough council leaders in Greater Manchester, most of the conurbation’s Conservative MPs, and much of the business community. 

But the government has the power to impose tier 3 restrictions and Mr Johnson has said he is ready to take this step if necessary,
although he would like the support of local leaders to legitimise the measures and try to ensure public compliance.

How would Johnson enforce tier 3 compliance on Greater Manchester?

Indeed - it can impose the regulations but can it enforce them?

Police cuts coming home to roost.

Like something out of an old Western film Manchester has till noon to agree to tier 3 restrictions otherwise the Government will enforce Tier 3 anyway. Good luck with that Boris!
They should have given the money to Manchester who have twice as many people than Liverpool or lancashire. As Andy Burnham said this fight is for all areas who he believes most will be under Tier 3 very soon.

Front page of the FT this morning.
Eurozone heads for 1 trillion Euro deficit in its attempts to combat the pandemic.
This is going to hit smaller states in the EU particularly hard.

@Peregrina

How would Johnson enforce tier 3 compliance on Greater Manchester?

I believe that is now the million pound question.

The idea you can have some imaginary force we don't have to appear from nowhere to enforce this is one a find intriguing.

Go Betty! Excoriating speech from Betty Boothroyd on the HoL about BJ and the IMB.

(The speech is transcribed in full so you don't need to watch the video)

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/betty-boothroyd-on-boris-johnson-and-brexit-3848744?fbclid=IwAR3df7zs66vz9hiL5y9SmDYRDDa219itThkyn04VZ-KGw2zqgzt1HxrYg

How would Johnson enforce tier 3 compliance on Greater Manchester?

I doubt that matters to him. When / if the time of reckoning comes For the death toll he will just point the finger of blame back at northern leaders / northerners in general.

not my most erudite addition (they never are!) but I spoke to my elderly old friend who is an ex-Treasury man (circa 1970's) re 'event's

He opined (a lot) and then summed up by saying that 'the only way to treat Johnny Foreigner is to force him to blink first, and he always does'. So, things seem not to have progressed much since the 1970's in his mind at least. I need a break before further calls like that! But,
it would seem, from the ludicrous posturing of recent days, that Gove et al would agree. Only, it is unlikely to work as a strategy, esp now.
There was also much musing about Sunak as the 'new cove' (old friend is an Old Wykehamist). No wonder May had such a hard time amongst that mindset. I saw her incredulity at Gove's nonsense too. Quite funny to watch, if it wasn't all so serious. Ditto the Manchester stand-off. How can the Govt look themselves in the mirror each day?

How can the Govt look themselves in the mirror each day?

They don't. Like most government activities they outsource this and pay someone to look in the mirror for them. Mirror, mirror, on the wall, who is the .........etc.

Why Lockdowns are irrelevant and will not work
Look at where the case loads are stubbornly high - areas of poverty and overcrowding.
Who are the people who will still be going out to work every day in the supermarkets and takeaways and food processing no matter how strict the lockdown ?
They will continue to mix because they are being paid to.
So the virus will circulate.

So lets move on from stags clashing antlers over lockdowns
and worry about where food will come from in 75 days time

@ListeningQuietly

Why Lockdowns are irrelevant and will not work Look at where the case loads are stubbornly high - areas of poverty and overcrowding. Who are the people who will still be going out to work every day in the supermarkets and takeaways and food processing no matter how strict the lockdown ? They will continue to mix because they are being paid to. So the virus will circulate.

So lets move on from stags clashing antlers over lockdowns
and worry about where food will come from in 75 days time

Anyone who did "history" at primary school used to know about the poverty of Victorian London leading to epidemics of Cholera etc etc.

Or perhaps @Jason118, like Dorian Gray, they have another reflection, hidden in the attic where their actual depravity is realistically shown ?

Like the Emperor's New Clothes, we can all see it. Is it that they are under a wicked spell and cannot, or is it that they WILL not see / don't care? I find it hard, even in the face of overwhelming evidence, to accept that these clowns are knowingly orchestrating such National Destruction via Brexit and Covid, but perhaps I am naive.
Old Wyke bod witters on about Duty. He cannot see who BJ really is.
Or perhaps he simply doesn't want to?
Like the electorate - until it is too late. To think that folk are knowingly voting for this (and might again) is too depressing for words. Only hope on horizon is that Trump eventually concedes to a Biden win.

In other news, the DHT of my kids School tells me that they are waiting to hear if the half term will be extended to 1 week or two. Her H, in the local Police (reasonably senior) told her that they've been 'put on stand by' for a 2 week circuit break in England.