Westminstenders: Prepare for what we said would never happen

[RedToothBrush]

I think that there may be a run on tinned tomatoes and pasta coming. Pizza will no longer have mozzarella in 2021.

On the plus side turnips are in season.

This is even before Brexit No Deal adds to the supply problem ...

Knock-on effects from hospitality sector being hit by Covid:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/18/rishi-sunak-warned-public-sectors-food-supply-at-risk

The supply of food to care homes, schools, hospitals and prisons is at risk unless the government steps in to support struggling wholesalers,
the UK chancellor, Rishi Sunak, has been warned.

Trade bodies representing major food companies said the loss of business from the hospitality sector, which has been rocked by the 10pm curfew and limits on household mixing,
meant that firms which also serve the public sector could fail.

Patel would be a disaster.
Gove is also Cummings' creature, is he not?
We are truly in grave trouble

The effects of many years making the NHS run on a JIT basis, like some damn manufacturing production line:

It'll take four years for NHS to recover from Covid-19, health chiefs warn

This article is from late June
so the forecast didn't seem to take into account that non-urgent ops and other treatment would be stopped again, as is happening now in some areas

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/27/itll-take-four-years-for-nhs-to-recover-from-covid-19-health-chiefs-warn

Tugenhardt is sensible & competent

Hunt is capable, although a shit

Graham Brady, head of 1922, has been making adult noises
It would be unusual, but he is obviously popular among MPs

Difficult to see how a leadership contest that includes party members would work well, if SD is still ongoing

• hustings like last year for their elderly membership would not go well

Maybe the next leader will be annointed, if BJ wants to flee the scene of his crimes

A north Tory PM would be interesting it does have to be said.

What could be even more interesting is a north Tory PM... and a London Tory PM. The separation of experiences is so great now. It remains to be seen if anyone has the will and capability to overcome it.

@Darker

Anyone but Gove would be better than BJ.

That was how we got Thatcher - "anyone but Heath"

I predict that Cummings will be made avLord in the new year honours list, paving the way .......

Hope I am completely wrong.

I didn't know that, @DGRossetti

Who remembers last year - 18 months ago - the post of "temporary Tory leader" was briefly created ? It's interesting to remember that even then there wasn't anyone stupid enough (and you have to wonder what they were turning down - a Peerage would have been guaranteed) to take the position.

Apologies for my ignorance, but what happens to the border in NI in the event of No Deal?

Iirc, that's why BJ is threatening to break international law (ie the treaty he signed): in the event of No Deal, the NI protocol (not sure if that's what it's called) is supposed to kick in, ie the de facto EU border in the Irish Sea.

Which is why at the very least work should have been done to prepare for that

In the wake of the latest No Deal news, looks like the COVID-induced lull in Brexit interest has broken and new Brexit threads are popping up here and there again. Makes a newly busy time for the ToryBrexitannianNationalPlague BeLeavers - fighting on two fronts, it's tiring work on the Ctrl-C-Ctrl-V

@Darker

Apologies for my ignorance, but what happens to the border in NI in the event of No Deal?

.... I expect the RoI will put customs checkpoints well back from the border, on all the main roads, where HGVs would travel and just ignore all the footpaths etc where local people go back & forth

That's not watertight, but should be enough to safeguard the Single Market unless maybe a very awkward 3rd country raises a case - unlikely, as Ireland has a lot of international sympathy

There will be a lot of pressure on the UK from many countries
and Ireland will use its influence in the USA to exert more leverage

• they did that very effectively during the Troubles and they fired up their diplomatic forces right after the referendum

As for what the UK govt will do .... continue to stick its head in the sand

@BigChocFrenzy

As for what the UK govt will do .... continue to stick its head in the sand

I wonder how all those businesses that happily jumped on the Terrible Corbyn bandwagon feel now ?

I feel about DUP and their voters as many people feel about the Tories. They pushed for Brexit thinking that it would result in a land border. All they wanted was to cut the North off from the South, regardless of the risk this would bring to peace and people's lives here.

This is what the NI Protocol should involve

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-deal-northern-ireland-protocol

But this is one of the "specific and limited ways" that the Bozos in WM are planning on breaking an International Treaty

Sunak as leader/PM?

Be careful what you wish for - he's a hard line Brexiteer.

How many northern MPs are actually northern MPs? The obvious ones with potential to have support within the parliamentary Tory party eg Sunak, Julian Smith are from the usual public school stable and were parachuted into their constituencies which are safe seats in affluent areas that might as well be the Home Counties, just with a chip on their shoulder that makes them even more Brexity. To be fair they seemed to have charmed their constituents and taken the bother to understand their issues but they are not the issues of the urban north.....

@ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

Sunak as leader/PM?

Be careful what you wish for - he's a hard line Brexiteer.

Definitely not wishing for it, @ICouldHaveCheckedFirst

(tho better than Patel or Gove imo)

the only recent Tories I have warmed to at all are Ruth Davidson and
Rory Stewart (and that's only by comparison, I think she is good but he is a bit self indulgent)

@Emilyontmoor

How many northern MPs are actually northern MPs? The obvious ones with potential to have support within the parliamentary Tory party eg Sunak, Julian Smith are from the usual public school stable and were parachuted into their constituencies which are safe seats in affluent areas that might as well be the Home Counties, just with a chip on their shoulder that makes them even more Brexity. To be fair they seemed to have charmed their constituents and taken the bother to understand their issues but they are not the issues of the urban north.....

It's interesting that one of the main criticisms around Englands Covid response was the lack of local input (in the shape of mayors).

But - and it's not as stupid a question as it sounds - how well does "local" fare in 21st century England anymore ? It seems to be taken for granted that very few elected representatives actually originate from the areas they seek (and succeed in) to represent.

It's still a criteria I factor into my views, but a few people have tried telling me that is so last millennium ...

@TheElementsOfMedical our cut & paste friend will be working overtime! 🤣

It's going to be an interesting fight for the Tory leadership when Johnson goes (and I don't think he'll still be PM this time next year).

Sunak is the front runner now, but more Covid economic pain and a bad Brexit will hurt him. And there can surely only be one Asian ex-investment banker per Tory shortlist so that stuffs up Javid's chances. Hunt will surely try again and I wouldn't be completely surprised if he won as the "consensus" candidate. Gove is too unlikeable I think. Patel, Truss and Raab are too stupid, even by Tory standards.

Are then any other realistic candidates?

If I were going to put a fiver on anyone it'd be Hunt. Can't stand him but he's not stupid, he's kept his powder dry during Covid and he came second last time IIRC.

It would be impossible to imagine this ever happening in any UK election.