Westministender: Amen to that!

[RedToothBrush]

On the Anniversary of the Battle of Britain, Johnson went to Westminster Abbey and was trolled. Its almost divine in its irony.

In a week where just about the entire right wing press has turned on him, for being... well shit... They have the dawning realisation that yes all those annoying lefties were right all along when they said he was full of nothing but hot air. He's been ridiculed for being paid £150,000 a year and not being able to feed his 5000 kids and the pictures to mark the anniversary of him becoming PM do little more than look like a man who couldn't tie his own shoe laces without a nanny to help him.

But its not really a laughing matter. This man doesn't understand what legal agreements he's signed so his solution to his ineptitude is to throw his toys out of the pram together with the rule of law. Which he also does not understand.

Johnson is also ever increasingly keen on ripping up inconvient human right and workers right and he has ample opportunity to do all this in the middle of a pandemic.

Unfortunately the hypocrisy of his cronies isn't exactly helping the behaviour of the public and you have to pity the poor behavioural scientists who have to tell him that 'of course the public are going to give you the vs when you tell them you shouldn't do this when your chief advisor claims to be maybe going blind'.

It seems the whole government strategy on managing the virus seems to be falling flat on its face rather sooner than planned cos they stuck Dildo in charge who wouldn't know her Rs from her elbow if it hit her in the face. And we've got Hancock going full on 1984, telling us not to believe the reports that no one can get a test because its all lies - except half the country has either first hand experience of the travesty of Track and Trace or has a close mate who they know is a hell of a lot more reliable than any of these fuckwits when it comes to telling the truth.

Meanwhile in America Bader Ginsburg has managed to die at possibly the most inconvient and dangerous time possible just as the future of democracy in the US is clinging on by its finger nails.

And yes. Money laundering. Haven't we talked about that a lot on these threads. Its almost as if FinCEN was predictable...

Taking back control was always about the elite taking back control from the masses. But if you've managed to keep following all this time, we've been saying that since April 2016 and no one listened then, so why would they start listening now?

Pay as you work new saying by Sunak.

Months later and total deaths are still normal for this time of year, becuse there are v few Covid deaths
and no other CoD has risen enough to be noticeable

I agree with bigchoc that the claim that "lockdown causes deaths" is badly in need of some supporting evidence to back it up, because there is absolutely NO evidence for it in the mortality data.

There is some evidence that in the very short term, lockdown decreases all-cause deaths. In some countries this is spectacularly visible in the excess mortality data (eg South Africa where early in the lockdown there was a dramatic fall in all cause mortality due mainly to lower deaths from road accidents, alcohol and criminal violence).

Post COVID, it's not unreasonable to hypothesise that there will be a longer term increase in deaths from other causes (untreated cancer) but we don't yet know the size of this effect. Cancer is a disease of the elderly, and so is COVID - so some future cancer deaths have been "prevented" (to put it crudely) by cancer patients dying of COVID instead.

I'm not a lockdown fanatic - I think there is an argument to be made that countries that did not eradicate COVID early will have to make a brutal choice between economic and social harm, and the deaths of some of our parents. But you have to make this argument honestly, based on evidence.

Cancer is not always a disease of the elderly - and some of the cancers they get are slow growing and the elderly person dies of something else.

Some of the rapidly progressing cancers seem to affect people in late middle age, so it's these people we need to be concerned about.

Of course Peregrina. The problem is going to be how you measure this at the population level, and what trade offs you are prepared to accept.

(This whole conversation is so much like Brexit, in the sense that so few people are prepared to be honest about the trade offs.)

I'm not averse to having an honest conversation about the harms associated with lockdown/ other strict anti-COVID measures, but the anti-lockdown folks also need to be honest about how many people they are prepared to see die of COVID now in order to prevent future deaths from other pathologies.

[quote SabrinaThwaite]@DmitryOpines

May never get invited onto the BBC again.

Presenter: "I remember being told that once we got a trade deal with the EU, we'd have frictionless trade."

Me: "Yes. The people saying that were ignorant or lying."

Presenter: "Oh."

Me: "Sorry."

(Radio Kent)[/quote]
......
😂😂👏🏽👏🏽

The unvarnished truth still has the power to shock
..... but probably not the power to change anything much at this late stage of the looming disaster(s)

Civil service statisticians came together estimated the lost years of life from Covid deaths up to ealy May
and also from non-Covid knock-on effects:

UK gov: Direct and Indirect Impacts of COVID-19 on Excess Deaths and Morbidity
(DHS , ONS, Govt actuary & HO)

Category A: Health impacts from contracting COVID-19

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf

We estimate that from the 32,000 COVID-19 deaths registered between 21st March and 1st May ⏮
25,000 were “excess deaths” in that they would not have occurred otherwise within 1-year.

Under the COVID-19 Static Scenario (CSS),
it is estimated there would be an additional 53,000 COVID-19 deaths to March 2021,
42,000 of which would be “excess deaths”.

In total this equates to 530,000 lost Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and 700,000 Years of Life Lost (YLL) over the 12 month period (21st March 2020 to 19th March 2021).

For people who contract COVID-19 and survive,
there are likely to be morbidity impacts particularly amongst those hospitalised and needing critical care, including cognitive, physical and mental health impairments.

We estimate these equate to 40,000 lost QALYs within 1-year.
The long-term health impacts are unknown.

UK gov: Direct and Indirect Impacts of COVID-19 on Excess Deaths and Morbidity
(DHS , ONS, Govt actuary & HO)

D2: Impacts of a lockdown-induced recession

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdff__
_
Short-term impacts

The short-term mortality impacts of the lockdown-induced recession are estimated to be 4,500 fewer excess deaths (equivalent to 30,000 gained QALYs) occurring within a year of the lockdown;

these are expected to come from an estimated reduction in the number of fatalities due to a reduction in cardiovascular diseases, dementias and respiratory diseases.
.....
The short-term morbidity impacts of the lockdown-induced recession are estimated to equate to 17,000 gained QALYs;
they are expected to come from an estimated increase in mental health problems, counterbalanced by a reduction in unintentional injuries (mostly occupational injuries),
reduction in chronic respiratory diseases, and reduction in transport injuries.

Medium and long-term impacts

We estimate an increase of 18,000 excess deaths as a result of the medium-term mortality impacts of the lockdown-induced recession,
occurring 2-5 years following the lockdown,
equivalent to 157,000 lost QALYs;

the main impacts are expected to come from an estimated increase in the number of fatalities due to increased cardiovascular diseases.

We estimate the medium-term morbidity impacts of the lockdown-induced recession to equate to 438,000 lost QALYs;
the main impacts are expected to come from an estimated increase in musculoskeletal disorders and mental health problems.

We estimate the long-term mortality impact of the lockdown-induced recession

(more than 5 years in the future) using two different approaches.

In the first approach, we use the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) life tables to estimate the impacts on those who were aged 15-24 during the lockdown-induced recession.
We assume a -0.3 GDP-to-mortality elasticity. This estimates 15,000 excess deaths, equivalent to 294,000 lost QALYs;
this is from a slightly elevated all-cause mortality impact for younger people who would enter the labour market a few years before, during, and a within a few years after the recession.

For the other approach, we use the Index of Multiple Deprivation for England (IMD) and assume a - 1.0 GDP-to-IMD score elasticity per year
giving an estimate of 17,000 additional deaths per year for every year that GDP remains at a low level.

Just looked up what the covid static scenario is. It assumes a constant 900 deaths a week from June 2019 to March 21. (unless it's been updated since the time the below document was written)
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/907616/s0650-direct-indirect-impacts-covid-19-excess-deaths-morbidity-sage-48.pdf

In Germany, there are generally far fewer restrictions than in the UK,
although compliance eems pretty good with what limits there are, especially good in shops & public transport

Celebrations up to 100 or 200 people in most states,
even football with up to 10k spectators have been SDed in an 80k stadium (Dortmund)

With efficient testing, track & trace this is leading to a v slow increase in cases, currently ~13 / 100,000 nationally
This seems manageable, since the health service has large spare capacity even over winter
but of course measures would be tightened if cases take off at any stage

I'm fine with this, like most people here,
because only 9,400 deaths in a (densely populated) country of 83 million gives confidence in the efficiency of public health systems and in the competence of political leaders making the decisions, especially Merkel

I'd even accept ending SD, if Merkel and the RKI justified this and explained why it was safe
atm, no sign of them taking this risk and the economy is roaring back anyway

Polls in Germany
show 82% think her job performance has been good
10% think measures are too strict, 60% about right, 28% not strict enough

Charts with my translations:

bugger, sorry, same link as above.

Germany doesn't to my knowledge have a Cummings like figure. Also its public health service is led by professionals, not Tory cronies.

So I think how much risk people accept isn't solely down to their general level of risk-taking,
or to the financial / health consequences they face,

but also to what has happened so far in the country, how BJ, Cummings, Harding & co have done their jobs

The level of trust in their competence and honesty - or the lack of this

The UK could have successfully taken a quite different path under other leadership

.

The UK could have successfully taken a quite different path under other leadership

I am anti the way Lockdown has been done in the UK because its utterly nonsensical and knee jerk
AND
the people telling us to do it sneer and ignore it themselves

Lockdown should be locally driven
eg tell all councils to get their R rate under 1 and their per 100,000 under 20
and then give them the resources to do what works in their area
as its very clear that Bolton and Salisbury are rather different.

Testing and tracking and tracing should be Local and integrated with the NHS and GPs

Enforcement of SD rules should be local and agreed between the council environmental health team, the police and the local NHS.

Lockdown levels should be local and the boundaries set by those who know the area - by street or by city

it is the utter lack of political leadership that pisses me right off
and don't even start me on Brexit

@Peregrina

Germany doesn't to my knowledge have a Cummings like figure. Also its public health service is led by professionals, not Tory cronies.

I do think this & DGR most recent post is the crux of why our continued outcomes etc are so vastly different from Germany, which is both very sobering & extremely sad & will not change anytime soon unfortunately.

@Peregrina

Germany doesn't to my knowledge have a Cummings like figure. Also its public health service is led by professionals, not Tory cronies.

Indeed

Port of Dover's ambition to make Freeports a national success

https://www.doverport.co.uk/about/news/port-of-dovers-ambition-to-make-freeports-a-natio/13538/

So that's the masterplan - hence the Kent Access Passes:
freeports ?

How long do they normally take to set up - so they actually work ?
Much longer than we've got, I suspect
and by people who know what they are doing ..... I wonder which crony - who has never seen a freeport but owns a rubber duck - has the contract

Iirc they aren't particularly successful in larger countries, just in city state type ones
Lots of smuggling opportunities ....

Have to have somewhere to put all those sweatshops, without even the few pesky rules in rUK

I spent most of my life working in African countries.
Countries where births and deaths aren’t registered. If someone dies they dig a hole and bury them.
Where people in rural areas have little, or no, access to healthcare and people are still dying of things like malaria and measles.
If many people working in the cities become ill or unemployed they are likely to return to their home villages taking infections with them.
South Africa is different and I don’t know a lot about it but sadly, in many African countries, I don’t believe there is any way of knowing the death toll

Imagine if Leavers had promised this in 2016 ....
Or if Remainers had warned of it - Project Fear wouldn't even describe it !

(((Dan Hodges))))@DPJHodges*

Someone sat in an office in Whitehall and said “the solution here is that we force people to have a permit to drive into Kent”.
And people nodded and said “good idea”.

That actually happened. In real life.

But as has been said
its what they voted for
so zilch sympathy from this quarter

It is the blithering arrogance and incompetence that is so infuriating.

Carrie and Wilf are on holiday in Italy.
Matt Hancock is telling students they will be locked down at Uni for Christmas
and the new app does not understand that 2m through a brick wall does not count

I found out from a newspaper that Matt Hancock is a twat.

I'm certainly no anti-vaxxer. But if you think I'm going to let someone stick a syringe with "Approved by Boris" down the side into me, they can FROTTFSOFATFOSM

www.expressandstar.com/news/uk-news/2020/09/24/no-conflict-of-interest-in-vallance-holding-vaccine-company-shares-hancock/

Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said he found out from a newspaper about UK chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance’s shares in a drug company contracted to develop a coronavirus vaccine for the Government.

But the Cabinet minister denied there was a conflict of interest in Sir Patrick, who leads the Government’s expert advisory panel on vaccines, reportedly holding shares worth £600,000 in pharmaceutical giant GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

Surprised no comments about Sunak announcements.

@Sostenueto

Surprised no comments about Sunak announcements.

In this thread ? Seems there's a few on MN ...

Sostenueto
Sunak's new scheme will slightly reduce the scale of the job losses that will escalate in the coming weeks.
But the rule of six and the 10 pm curfew will have a mugh greater negative impact.
Industries that had thought they could get back on their feet this winter were kicked in the teeth and will be laying off staff left right and centre.
The VAT cut will not make up for lost takings.

Its going to be a very tough winter
with the supply chain collapsing half way through.