France and Germany manage free unis - pass the end of school exams bac/abitur and you’re in. X% drop out in the first year which is a kind of self-selection.
In France, a huge number drop out after just a few weeks (although a fair number return for exams because they lose their grant if they are absent at those: they hand in a blank script and sign the attendance sheet. Some get very angry when they are told the rules prevent them from leaving before an hour is up. Some sleep until they can go. A colleague of mine saw a student knitting during an exam.)
A huge number fail, sometimes after their 3rd attempt at first year. In my department, we have a 20% pass rate in 1st year, and pass rates of around 50% in second and third years.
It's not self-selection, it's selection after entrance.
It was decided in 1985 that 80% of a year group should pass the Bac, and that is what then happened, but not because education massively improved...
As the entrance criterion for French university (not for Grandes Ecoles, or other selective HE establishments which the political elite and their kids attend, and not for medecine) is simply passing the Bac, that huge rise in the pass rate had a knock-on effect in universities.
The system worked better when 30% passed the Bac and the other 70% had a whole range of other options, including vocational degrees, apprenticeships, etc., but it is now seriously flawed.
96% passed the Bac this year: imagine being in the 4%. We are bracing for an influx of seriously unprepared 1st years, many of whom just won't pass.
And I have few illusions about what the 10 000 "places" for the extra students will look like, given how massively underfunded and understaffed French universities already are and are due to remain. We already have 40 people in our tutorials, and fewer than half the permanent staff needed to teach them.
The objective of X% of the population getting a university degree is linked to the Lisbon strategy. The target was for 40% of 30-30 yr-olds in EU countries to obtain a university qualification. That dates to 2009, but the original Lisbon strategy was set out in 2000, which may be why Blair is considered responsible for the target in the UK.