Westminstenders: PreGrades (Minority Report comes to the UK)

[RedToothBrush]

In Aug 2020, London, DC's prototype 'PreGrades' launched from the education department stops plebs before they go to university, reducing the social mobility rate to zero percent. Social mobility is predicted using specialized mutated humans, called "Teachers", who "predict" grades by marking shit lots of course work and exams over a period of years. Would-be social climbers are knocked down in a computer algorithm which distorts reality and hits the disadvantaged hardest. Central government is on the verge of adopting the controversial program nationwide by applying it in all departments from the DWP, the Home Office, the Department of Health and the Department of Justice to predict benefit fraud, getting sick asylum seeking and crime before it occurs.

DC's vision of the future is based on excellence being genetically ingrained into the elite but he must sell this vision to the unsuspecting public in a series of public votes which rely on the idea of the 'undeserving'. Little do they know that they too will be the victims of this plan until a mysterious bug appears and only the wealthy and well connected are able to get hold of adequate PPE and they are no longer able to buy bog roll nor retire to Spain as they had previously and endless queues for pizza form near Kent.

Germany has very selective secondary schooling
3 main types, only 1 of which are fully on the Uni track

There is an exam, the Abitur, which is quite demanding,
so anyone who passes that gets free Uni educaation
and I think the dropout isn't high

Nothing wrong with 50% accessing Higher Education. There’s a lot of snobbery re courses like Media, Music Tech and (even) Yacht Design (materials tech etc). The world has moved on since 1980.
Dismissing an argument as “just right wing” isn’t helpful.

Meanwhile ...

www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-mutation-thats-10-times-more-infectious-original-discovered-malaysia

@borntobequiet

Nothing wrong with 50% accessing Higher Education. There’s a lot of snobbery re courses like Media, Music Tech and (even) Yacht Design (materials tech etc). The world has moved on since 1980. Dismissing an argument as “just right wing” isn’t helpful.

Ah, yes. But "higher education" /= "University".

The reason NuLab and successive Tory regimes made that connection is that they had loads of mates in Universities waiting for a payout.

We return to the hammer/nail paradigm.

And I've said before, really education should be viewed (as in provided for) as a lifelong faculty. Because 90% of what we learned in school is probably wrong. In some cases dangerously wrong. The Half Life Of Facts and all that.

It's not self-selection, it's selection after entrance

It’s both.

My principle point was that French unis are free. The subsidiary point was that (GEs aside), French unis are non-selective, so large numbers of students start and then drop out of their own volition, rather than failing the initial selection process. Same in Italy - lecture halls are full at the beginning of the year, and thin out as students realise it’s not for them.

I’m not extolling the entrance procedures, merely noting them. In fact I find them rather odd - particularly the dichotomy between the non-selectivity of the unis vs the extreme selectivity of the GEs.

The general dropout rate in Germany is quite high - I’ve read discussion of it in German research/media. Certainly higher than the U.K. where unis are both selective and fee-paying.

It depends on the institution. At Oxbridge, music colleges and top redbricks it’s as low as 2%, in others it’s up to 20%. Disadvantaged and mature students are more likely to drop out.

TBH I have no problem with fees.
I do have a HUGE problem with the headline interest rate
even though it does not affect the amount that students repay in the short term
If the Loan interest was frozen so long as kids are studying
and the rate was base plus a SMALL fraction
then the impact on the day to day life of students would be zilch
but the perceived value of the young would be massively improved.

Another of my pipe dreams

[quote DGRossetti]Meanwhile ...

www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-mutation-thats-10-times-more-infectious-original-discovered-malaysia[/quote]
So if I'm reading this right...

And as Bloomberg reported on Monday, Southeast Asia - Malaysia specifically - has seen evidence that a certain mutation is more infectious, just like other mutations catalogued in the UK, NY and elsewhere. They call the mutation "D614G". It's also the "predominant variation of the virus" seen in Europe and the US - meaning it's the same "world-conquering" virus we reported on back in June.

We already have this version, so no need for any alarm about a more virulent version arriving?

Well in all practical terms, HE does = University.
In the past, Rhetoric was worth studying, and Science wasn’t. The world changes and the sort of knowledge considered worthwhile changes too.
I once wrote an academic reference for a student who wanted to do a Media degree, despite her parents really pushing her towards Eng Lit. I said she would do well on any course, but as a person who was both interested and interesting, a Media Studies course would be the best fit.

I have no problem with 50% going to Uni

I have a huge problem with it being at the expense of grants for low income students
and also that a degree has now become a requirement for so many jobs whre it is not really needed

It is too often used as a weeding out process for applicants, to cut down the numbers they have to even interview

What is has done is increased the social divide even further,
with the better off half of the country being very likely to go to uni
and the poorer half very likely not

There is in effect a requirement to pay 30k or so in advance, to be able to apply for many jobs in the future
and many poor kids will not gamble that they would benefit afterwards

I would never have taken on debt to go to Uni
it was my one chance and I would just have given up completely on a career
So I would never have escaped from poverty

A friend has just graduated 2:1 from her photography degree at a low ranking Uni
but I'm utterly and unbelievably proud of her
and know that those letters after her name will boost the rest of her life
even though I'm 100% certain she'll never pay off a penny of her loans.

Life is nuance

Or of course, just emigrated to anywhere that debt would not have been collectable

but I didn't have the confidence then to even think of emigrating - a good career gives that

BigChoc
She will never leave the UK. She relies on the NHS and disability services too much to relocate.

I had absolutely zero interest in letters after my name, increasing my knowledge or having new experiences

For me, Uni was the chance to have a career that rescued me from poverty and a lifetime of deadend precarious jobs
It was 100% a mercenary decision, to improve my earning capacity

As a child, I spent years sofa-surfing, years at grammar school in total social isolation in tatty uniform,
no money to go out with the other students, no outings, no treats, no outside activities,
not even a home phone number
I was humiliated every week as I didn't have pocket money and hence could never pay the weekly charity dues

I couldn't think about anything else except escaping that life, but was continually discouraged from Uni by those around me making fun of the idea
Taking out a loan would have been an unthinkable gamble, a millstone around my neck

I have since enjoyed learning new things, once I felt secure enough not to concentrate 100% on escape and survival

I'm glad so many people of all ages have the chance and the belief in themselves to study,

but sad that those for whom it would make the greatest difference - the 2020 young BigChocs stuck down in the poverty pit - will never take it up, because of the removal of grants

The money could be found, if governments - of either party - actually cared about social mobility for the poorest with the lowest social capital

I have more optimism than you BigChoc
Many kids know that loans need never be repaid and that Uni opens doors
and the schools are getting MUCH better at encouraging lower income kids to go for it

Just thinking of diving my toe into edication again myself :)

No reason. Ither than the fact I can.

God, I'm such a menopausal cliche!

Dipping my toe

@ListeningQuietly

I have more optimism than you BigChoc Many kids know that loans need never be repaid and that Uni opens doors and the schools are getting MUCH better at encouraging lower income kids to go for it

... I have lived experience of how much grinding poverty - including of expectations - social pressure can hold you back

Teachers were the only reason I even considered Uni, but they could not compensate for years of insecurity and social exclusion,
for a complete lack of faith in asurances that things will turn out OK in the end - because I had continually found that shit keeps happening, when you are vulnerable

Bigchoc
I know.
But I also know that teachers are getting better are making sure that the poor know that their potential will come through
even here in the UK

and of course the poorest kids would have to take out the largest loans

Governments need to return to means-tested grants
My full grant was about the level of benefit for a single person, so is perfectly possible to finance, if the will is there,
especially as most students didn't get the full grant

As for parents refusing to fund students on partial grants, that happens now with loans too
As then, those students get an evening / weekend job

[quote DGRossetti]Meanwhile ...

www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-19-mutation-thats-10-times-more-infectious-original-discovered-malaysia[/quote]
I was optimistic until I read the last paragraph of that! My optimism being based on the fact the I have once read a book about viruses, and I’ve watched Outbreak twice

If a virus becomes more infectious, it doesn’t necessarily become more deadly. In most cases, the more deadly it is, the less contagious it becomes. The common cold for e.g. is good at being contagious, but relatively bad at being deadly.

SARS 1 (the prequel) and Ebola both suffered from being too deadly. When Ebola reaches its most contagious stage, the patient is too far gone to be moving around and spreading it around.

If a virus kills its host too quickly, it can’t propagate itself into any more people, and dies out.

The less deadly strains tend to “survive” and multiply, as their host stays alive and healthy enough to spread it to everyone around them.

SARS 1 also, iirc, didn’t have much asymptomatic spread so wasn’t as efficient at infecting large groups of people as Covid. I might be misremembering that though, so if anyone knows better, please correct me!

TL:DR - solely being more infectious/contagious may not be a bad thing. However, if it’s more infectious and more deadly, then I’m buying shares in Zorbs, because we’ll all need them.

^and of course the poorest kids would have to take out the largest loans
^
The value of the loan is not relevant
its a graduate tax they will probably never have to pay
they know that

Listening I would not have believed it
I would not have taken on debt

It is a completely different mindset when you have experienced grinding poverty and social exclusion,
that the comfortable mc can never understand

The chasm in belief of a future
The utter horror at taking on debt