Westminstenders: PreGrades (Minority Report comes to the UK)

[RedToothBrush]

In Aug 2020, London, DC's prototype 'PreGrades' launched from the education department stops plebs before they go to university, reducing the social mobility rate to zero percent. Social mobility is predicted using specialized mutated humans, called "Teachers", who "predict" grades by marking shit lots of course work and exams over a period of years. Would-be social climbers are knocked down in a computer algorithm which distorts reality and hits the disadvantaged hardest. Central government is on the verge of adopting the controversial program nationwide by applying it in all departments from the DWP, the Home Office, the Department of Health and the Department of Justice to predict benefit fraud, getting sick asylum seeking and crime before it occurs.

DC's vision of the future is based on excellence being genetically ingrained into the elite but he must sell this vision to the unsuspecting public in a series of public votes which rely on the idea of the 'undeserving'. Little do they know that they too will be the victims of this plan until a mysterious bug appears and only the wealthy and well connected are able to get hold of adequate PPE and they are no longer able to buy bog roll nor retire to Spain as they had previously and endless queues for pizza form near Kent.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-pandemic_uk_5f3684b8c5b69fa9e2fa517f

I’m Leaving Britain, In The Middle Of A Pandemic, Because Of Brexit

I made a career, met my husband and had my children here. But things feel so bleak that we feel we have no other choice but to leave.

(contd)

Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPayne
Tory bible @ConHome says Boris Johnson should reshuffle Gavin Williamson to leader of the Commons - but admits it probably won’t happen.

"It is a cardinal principle of the Johnson/Cummings operation not to bow to media pressure."

www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/08/the-education-secretary-must-lead-school-openings-in-less-than-a-month-which-is-why-his-department-now-needs-new-leadership.html
The Education Secretary must lead school openings in less than a month. Which is why his Department needs new leadership now.

This article is extraordinary on many levels. It says that Ofqal are independent of politics so Williamson has argued he didn't see the algorithm until Saturday because he wasnt allowed. Except Gove's former advisor when he was Education Minister has said this is nonsense and even in normal years they had access to similar information before results were released.

Then it goes on to say that Williamson's advice is highly regarded by no10 as some kind of politicial seer.

And THEN that Williamson should be moved to leader of the commons and Rees-Mogg shifted to a trade or finance role...

Has anyone discussed the impact of over offering this year on university places and saying that students will be able to take a place next year, on next year's A Level graduates who have already missed months of lessons and therefore might end up with lower than expected grades compared to previous years as a result?

My point being, are there less university places available for next year already thus pushing up required grades for next years students....?

@RedToothBrush

Has anyone discussed the impact of over offering this year on university places and saying that students will be able to take a place next year, on next year's A Level graduates who have already missed months of lessons and therefore might end up with lower than expected grades compared to previous years as a result?

Yes. Me.

DGRossetti Mon 17-Aug-20 14:02:55

But with next years applicants already beginning that journey, will there be space ?

[quote borntobequiet]This appears to say that though people are worried about getting into debt, there has been no impact on numbers of people from disadvantaged backgrounds accessing HE.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/805078/Impact_of_the_student_finance_system_on_disadvantaged_young_people.pdf[/quote]
...
I would definitely not have gone to Uni if it involved racking up debt
That would have been the final straw

Those of us who wanted to escape from poverty had a horror of debt, having seen how it furthe dragged down those around us
It's not like buying property - which even then was not something most around me aspired to - where one gets a useful physical asset

Many better off people have no idea of the pressures, fears and bitter life experiences of poor communities

I only went to Uni because - mid 1970s - fees were paid for all and there was a maintenance grant;
I received the full grant for my BSc, MSC, PhD hence no debt

Universities that made firm offers to students and then withdrew them because the moderated A level grades were too low now have to see how to accommodate those students whose CAGs did actually hit the required grades. Some are already guaranteeing places for 2021 entry, which will means less places available for next year’s A level cohort.

What a mess.

"It is a cardinal principle of the Johnson/Cummings operation not to bow to media pressure."

Ahem

fsm over summer
A level results
.....

This appears to say that though people are worried about getting into debt, there has been no impact on numbers of people from disadvantaged backgrounds accessing HE.

When DS attended the various open evenings at school, the universities were at pains to tell parents that it was their children that pick up the debt with nothing expected from parents. In case we were worried about little Johnny going to Uni. It was quite stomach churning. Here's a quote from DS, as we were leaving:

It's all about money, isn't it ?

and with that he decided not to go. Aged 24 with (hopefully) a career and no £30+K debt it's not looking so bad now.

I received the full grant for my BSc, MSC, PhD hence no debt

Indeed, it tended to favour the less well off, because a parental contribution meant that not everyone got the full grant. I knew people whose parents refused to stump up because they didn't like the choice of course their child had chosen, didn't like the boyfriend or girlfriend or sometimes genuinely as self-employed people with fluctuating incomes, couldn't afford the amount they had been assessed for.

But before we get all misty eyed about how wonderful it all was back then: most people didn't go to university. Most people failed the 11+ so their chances of doing O and A levels were immediately restricted. Then, girls especially were siphoned off into Teacher Training Colleges, which until the early 70s were all non-degree courses. And then of those who did get to university, not many made it to Oxford or Cambridge. For my area that might have been a reflection of a regional bias - people were perfectly happy going to Manchester, a large vibrant city, with a good university, why would you want to go to defer for a year to try for Cambridge, when you could go now and have a good old time?

@BigChocFrenzy

"It is a cardinal principle of the Johnson/Cummings operation not to bow to media pressure."

Ahem

fsm over summer
A level results
.....

....unless it relates to Rasputin Cummings for whom the rules don't apply

I should have said "principles"

I raised that very issue re the new y13 cohort some threads ago red
You pretty much dismissed my concerns.

I'm so so relieved for this years cohort. Hugely relieved.

But as I've said a few times..its next years cohort that could be really fucked :(

Loads of deferrals from this year due to online provision for 1st semester.

This could mean higher grades needed to get on the course of choice.

And this utter debacle means that - come what may - next years cohort will sit the exams. Even though they have missed 4/5 months of the course for 3/4 subjects.

Ofqual will make changes to the gcses but NOT the A level courses.

I'm trying to make sense of that but can't (I'm obv not too bright...)

Indeed, it tended to favour the less well off, because a parental contribution meant that not everyone got the full grant.

When I started Uni, my godfather reminisced that the poorest students at Uni in the early 70s were from the richest families.

A friend (still !) on my course had a millionaire dad who - to be fair - gave him exactly the what the maximum grant would have been. And meant it. I can still recall my friend getting his notebook out in the pub to write down each packet of crisps. Unlike me, he knew his bank balance to the penny. His youngest (of 4) has just been accepted into Uni ...

Didn't kids from separated parents have it shit ? Something about not filling in forms for income ?

Either way, nothing has shaken my deepest belief that it would be a mark of civilisation to offer education free to all up to the point where they can demonstrate aptitude. So if you are capable of doing a Ph.D and want to, it should be open to you, gratis. But then I know I'm weird with my ideas of equality and justice and tolerance. Still, I'll be dead soon, along with my fellow weirdoes.

Wasn't this year meant to be a low number cohort? At what stage does an increased birth rate kick in? What I am trying to say is there might be a little bit of slack in the system for a couple of years.

Either way, it's pretty shit for this year's cohort and will be just as shit for next years. The Government won't be able to say that they couldn't anticipate next year's problems - we could point them to these threads.

yes this year was a low birth rate year but obv that doesn't take into account foreign students

I should imagine the impact of this will affect university places and students for a few years. Not just this year and next.

On other news the British wheat harvest is likely to be the worst since the 1980s. They think a reduction of a third, but don't know yet and don't know how good the quality of the wheat is either.

We may need to import wheat then. Just a 53% WTO tariff when (if?) we have No Deal.

Someone better tell Warburtons and Hovis to stockpile.

twitter.com/mikegove12/status/1295611575433338881

@Choux

We may need to import wheat then. Just a 53% WTO tariff when (if?) we have No Deal.

Someone better tell Warburtons and Hovis to stockpile.

Let's hope the Irish don't try to starve us ..

www.fwi.co.uk/arable/ireland-leads-world-wheat-yields

Irish wheat yields are on average the highest in the world

Seen elsewhere:

With this Government though, their modus operandi seems to be

• Can we prevaricate and delay any decision making as long as possible?
• Can we test a soft policy through the media and see what the reaction would be, and "focus-group" it instead of using our judgement?
• Is there an outside agency or body we can use as the fall guy for any of this?
• Can we make money out of any of this by generating wealth in the private sector using agency support?
• Never mind a pandemic and the need for extraordinary decisions for these circumstances - how can we spin this so it serves the interests of the voter groups represented by Mail readers?

Well we’ve come a fair distance from my remark that the current debacle is way worse than the Lib Dem fees debacle by a long way.
I’m not a big fan of tuition fees but not against them in principle, especially if their form makes them more like a graduate tax. Universities have to be funded somehow and why should someone who hasn’t had the benefits of HE fund all those who have, via taxes? Yes I know society as a whole benefits directly from some degrees, but all of them? Also, the world now is very different from the world of the 1970s. While it would be nice to fully fund HE for all, how could this be done at the same time as widening access and broadening the number of HE pathways?
I’m really not sure why I’m continuing with this as a) it’s a derail and b) I don’t actually feel very strongly about it. I do object, though, to direct comparisons between the current almighty shit show and a regrettable but probably unavoidable mistake made by a junior partner in a Coalition government. Having said that, nothing would induce me to vote LD ever again - but that’s because of gender issues.

@borntobequiet, I agree with you. The reason I referenced it is because a lot of my contemporaries have not forgotten that promise, even though the Lib Dems were not in a position to enact it. I imagine the A-level and GSCE students today who were let down this week will have long memories of this time, too. It's a pity the vote-stacking is so bad in university towns, otherwise, we might have seen more election influence from younger voters.

My family are ardent Brexiters and Conservative supporters. Even they are struggling to justify or excuse this.

On other news the British wheat harvest is likely to be the worst since the 1980s. They think a reduction of a third, but don't know yet and don't know how good the quality of the wheat is either.

London Calling ....

The ice age is coming, the sun's zooming in
Meltdown expected, the wheat is growing thin