Westminstenders: PreGrades (Minority Report comes to the UK)

[RedToothBrush]

In Aug 2020, London, DC's prototype 'PreGrades' launched from the education department stops plebs before they go to university, reducing the social mobility rate to zero percent. Social mobility is predicted using specialized mutated humans, called "Teachers", who "predict" grades by marking shit lots of course work and exams over a period of years. Would-be social climbers are knocked down in a computer algorithm which distorts reality and hits the disadvantaged hardest. Central government is on the verge of adopting the controversial program nationwide by applying it in all departments from the DWP, the Home Office, the Department of Health and the Department of Justice to predict benefit fraud, getting sick asylum seeking and crime before it occurs.

DC's vision of the future is based on excellence being genetically ingrained into the elite but he must sell this vision to the unsuspecting public in a series of public votes which rely on the idea of the 'undeserving'. Little do they know that they too will be the victims of this plan until a mysterious bug appears and only the wealthy and well connected are able to get hold of adequate PPE and they are no longer able to buy bog roll nor retire to Spain as they had previously and endless queues for pizza form near Kent.

Still no word on BTECs ?

Reportedly in Westminster, Williamson is referred to as Private Pike - the helpless teen soldier in Dad's Army

So, who spotted the creepy photo of Williamson issued today as he did his A level fiasco u-turn? Is the book laid on top of the whip a threat that he’ll spill the beans on his time as Chief Whip? Or is he just a giant knobber?

Daily Telegraph front page.
It's interesting that they brought up the poll tax- I immediately thought of the Lib Dems tuition fee débâcle. That has not been forgiven by former students, either.

Hopefully with the image this time...

That whip didn't go unnoticed by John Crace....

www.theguardian.com/education/2020/aug/17/you-stupid-boy-boris-ticks-private-williamson-off-over-exams-u-turn

I agree it is likely that this fiaso will have faded in memory in a few years - if only because it will be dwarfed by the multiple clusterf*cks that will happen between now and when this "government" collapses.

The "government" has been honed to a precision machine, fine tuned to fail, it will be impossible for them to do anything successfully, or for the machine to be repurposed for mediocrity let alone success.

Did the Lib Dem “debacle” really adversely affect anyone? How many people actually had to pay back all their tuition fees? It seems having to take out student loans hasn’t massively deterred people from less well off backgrounds from going to University.
Both my DC (of a SP) had student loans. DS, high earning, has I think paid back all his, and has never appeared bothered by it. DD on the other hand has not and will not ever pay it all back...hardly notices the deductions from her pay packet.
This debacle is of an entirely different order of magnitude.

One top university tells me that would result in financial penalties of £10-20 million

I find it completely astonishing that Uni's face real fines for overcrowding when we have zero fines for say rail companies who leave passengers waiting for hours with no service or packed like sardines into late trains...so many other institutions that provide less of a pivotal role in society (in terms of climbing up the ladder) would benefit with such an axe hanging over their heads IMO.

@BigChocFrenzy

Reportedly in Westminster, Williamson is referred to as Private Pike - the helpless teen soldier in Dad's Army

Don’t tell’em Pike!

There is no question that student loans have put poorer students of uni. And that some people really struggle with their student debt. It’s great that your DD doesn’t notice it but it’s not the same for everyone.

This appears to say that though people are worried about getting into debt, there has been no impact on numbers of people from disadvantaged backgrounds accessing HE.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/805078/Impact_of_the_student_finance_system_on_disadvantaged_young_people.pdf

Well they would say that wouldn’t they?

Are you expecting the government to admit that their policy put poorer people off further education?

I also did a BTEC at what used to be London College of Printing - Art and Design Media with a personal focus on documentary film making. In one of the silliest moves of my life I went on to get an offer at Cardiff to take Media and decided I'd rather spend the next 4 years in a relationship with a complete arsehole who didn't want me to go in case it broke us up. Still, it meant I could be pickier with the 2 main uni's here as I had a lotta points. Even then I picked the one with the higher entry requirements only to find out later all bar one of my tutors got 2:2's in largely unrelated subjects. Education has been a mixed bag for me!

Did the Lib Dem “debacle” really adversely affect anyone?

Student fees discourage those from less well-off homes from going to university, because of the fear of debt and the uncertainty (increased where the is an absence of family history of university study) that a degree necessarily leads to a job.

They have also inured a generation of graduates to the issue of debt, contributing to a credit culture that may blow up in people's faces, especially in a shrinking economy.

And they have had an effect on how universities are run and on the position of students, who have in effect become paying customers, within the system. (Though the latter isn't something that's likely to bother potential young voters, obviously.)

It’s a report from the Institute for Employment Studies.
www.employment-studies.co.uk/
Appears to be an independent apolitical body.

Unless anyone knows better.

I like the use of tense in the Telegraph headlined ...

"A-levels debacle threatened to be another poll tax moment."

So are they telling the masses that it's all over now. Nothing to see ?

Personally the Torygraph is an irrelevance to public opinion - it's hardly populist.

I'd be far more worried when the Mail starts sniping. They'll always be Tory too. But not necessarily Boris-tory.

Although saying all that, does it really matter anymore ? We have a Tory government that's embedded deeper than Japanese knotwood (note to self: How are those trade talks going ? Is the UK still hoping that hard cheese wins out ?).

If any country has territorial designs on the UK, now is probably the best time to invade there's ever been.

David Henig @davidheniguk
Imagine negotiating with the UK government and being told something is a red line. Such a statement won't have much credibility. So the u-turns come at a price. One or two, just life. Several in a few months, poor planning and vulnerability.

I certainly wouldn't currently rate the chances of the UK getting a US trade deal as high with this kind of public pressure on food quality.

But similarly will Brexiteer Conservative MPs publicly organise against the concessions needed for an EU deal? Tricky times for a government that seems to struggle to avoid obvious mistakes.

I've noted before in trade a government seemingly uninterested in finding a consensus policy. But that appears to be more widespread, insufficiently tested policy that turns out to be fragile.

I've noted before in trade a government seemingly uninterested in finding a consensus policy.

Fuck business said Boris.

And meant it.

(The irony is, that is probably the single time in Boris entire career he's been honest.)

To all the people who dismissed that at the time - and are either paying the price, or preparing to pay it - you are simply stupid. Really stupid. And I know who you all are, because you still voted for the Tories - thus exemplifying that 50% of the population are below average intelligence. Don't give me your whatabouttery, your faux concern for this, that or the other. Because whatever you voted Tory for has been fucked over right royally and you've been well conned. As you were warned at the time. I hope you enjoy your new life on the millions of dollars your Nigerian prince smuggled out for you.

(Checks pulse) - no I'm still furious beyond belief.

I just want it to be November 4th TBH

Jon Worth @jonworth
Although Hard Brexit is about the only ideological red thread there is to the UK Government. Out of stubbornness more than any logical thinking they’re hence less likely to u-turn here than on education?

Simon Whiteley @simonwhiteley6
There is no coherence to this Govt- it is just a milder version of Trump’s narcissism. The outcome of the Brexit talks will depend on what Johnson thinks will best keep Johnson in power. Which is actually quite hard to evaluate.

Carl Gardner @carlgardner
I agree with this, except I don't think it's that hard to evaluate. I think the ERG won the battle in the Tory party, so Johnson can't survive as leader without satisfying them. Many of them feel he's betrayed them, and owes them. So it has to be No Deal.

Of course No Deal involves huge dangers for the country and Johnson. But I don't think he understands those dangers. I think his boosterism is not just a performance for us: it's really him inside. He truly believes, as with A levels, that it'll be fine.

Simon Whiteley @simonwhiteley6
I agree with that narrative, but think there is an alternative. Despite the boosterism, he knows there will be disruption, deal or no deal. With no deal, it is all on him. ERG will show no loyalty, and will want a scapegoat. With a deal, he has some options, for blame and support

Jon Worth @jonworth
Perhaps. But as @APHClarkson has correctly observed, brinkmanship and then caving at the last minute is not impossible. And the ERG are dim enough to fall for it, I think.

Simon Whiteley @simonwhiteley6
With talk of reneging on the WA, the ERG leaders may also have overplayed their hand. If their demands are impossible to meet, don’t bother trying.

Most of us got October wrong, which makes me cautious of certainty.

Carl Gardner @carlgardner
Of course I can be wrong as can you. I'm no more certain than you. I'm saying with a certain amount of confidence or belief that I think he's painted himself into No Deal. You say with an equal amount of confidence or belief that he hasn't.

I also think Johnson has learned from history that moderate Tory MPs tend to give up and accept defeat internally on Europe, and that the hard right always wins internally on it. Safer for him (short term, which is how he thinks) to please the hard right.

Alexander Clarkson @aphclarkson
Then why did be sign on to an agreement that carved out Northern Ireland? The moment Red Wall Tory MPs start panicking about unemployment numbers in their seats is when the cohesion of the ERG corrodes. The question is whether before January 2020 or in the months afterwards

Carl Gardner @carlgardner
That pleased the hard right in the short term, because it got rid of "the backstop", and Johnson kidded himself that it'd all be okay. It fits with my analysis of him.

As for unemployment and the ERG corroding, you're almost certainly right. I think it'll happen after No Deal. Too many of them will pooh-pooh it all as Project Fear until it happens. This approach is now baked in to their worldview. See: virus, A levels.

I've always thought that Johnson will do what suits Johnson best, rather than what is best for the country.

I think Johnson in the short term will go with no deal to please the party internally. Johnson tends to uturn in the face of internal party pressure. (Cummings eyesight being the exception to the rule because he cant manage without him). He likes to look like a strong leader on Europe and following through on what political capital he built up during the referendum.

I also reflect on the fact this government are reactionary and only uturn when its become obvious that the policy is unworkable and untenable due to the spiralling crisis.

That would suggest no deal inevitable as the government are incapable of realising what a fuck up theyve made until afterwards and then the employ the shitty clean up crew to cover up and deny their incompetence.

Either way, i dont think there is much to be optimistic here about. A government with a red line that constantly u turns and a government which is unable to admit its own incompetence until we are in a full blown crisis.

Published by the DoE.

I personally know people who decided against a degree due to student debt. I know teachers who have experienced bright students not attempting uni due to concern over finances.

Student debt increases income to debt ratio and can impact ability to get a mortgage. Quite apart from the wisdom of encouraging young people to start life with a debt they may never be able to pay off - public and private debt being factors in the last financial crisis. It was extraordinary that the coalition’s government’s response to the financial crisis was to inaugurate whole generations into fresh debt.

Dom Walsh @domwalsh13
This comment from an EU official - suggesting the UK will cave in Brexit talks because progress in other FTAs has been slow - is a bit off.

New FTAs aren't going to economically offset Brexit anyway, so am sceptical that lack of them will make the UK more desperate for a deal

Perhaps there's something in it as political analysis, deals have symbolic value and I tend to think an EU deal is more in HMG's political interests than not doing one. But in economic/trade terms it's not clear why progress of other FTAs changes that calculation

Like if "lack of trade alternatives" means "lack of new FTAs to economically offset Brexit" then that's a feature of the project, not a bug.

(NB that doesn't mean there aren't new trade opportunities or that we shouldn't pursue them)

It's all a bit "EU official takes inaccurate hard Brexiteer narrative at face value"

Also what was the "setback" in recent talks with the US? That a deal won't be done before the election? It was never going to be done before the election and that's actually no bad thing from a UK national interest point of view...

Yes. The US deal and the US election. Important...

(Cummings eyesight being the exception to the rule because he cant manage without him)

Just musing that assassinations of elected officials (Jo Cox excepted, of course ) tends to backfire in terms of the original aim - it's a forced unifying act. However, I'd be curious to know the history of unelected officials stopping bullets ? Or cars, if their eyesight lets them down when there's a police pursuit on ?