Westminstenders: How many Dead Cats Do You Get In A Thunderstorm?

[RedToothBrush]

It never rains. It only pours.

What I wouldn't give for a bit of old fashioned drizzle right now.

4 years on and we are facing a torment of calamities. Brexit, serious political instability in the USA ahead of an election that Trump will refuse to lose even if he does, trade deals with the rest of the world put on 6 week deadlines, anger within the commonwealth, a sick weak dependent PM on the back foot and ill briefed, rampant growing corruption in the Tory party, woke nut jobs out of touch with reality, councils on the brink of bankruptcy and the whole covid-19 crisis.

DGRossetti
Ah - you meant Chinese people - your FT link says -
"Hate crime against ‘Oriental’ people in London soars, police data show."

Ah - you meant Chinese people

Are Chinese not asian ? I was trying (probably too hard, but that's us boomers) to ensure I didn't sloppily say "Chinese" when I was thinking about the entire spread of peoples that come from the continent of Asia.

If only MN had sound, I could have done a funny accent and everyone would have understood.

I think it's reasonable to say that coronavirus is associated with China rather than 'Asia'.

I think the point is that most people here (uk) equate certain physical characteristics with being Chinese.... whereas those people may be from HK, Singapore, Korea, Japan.... and of course China . I don't think before assaulting them they were actual he king they had the ethnicity right....

Clavinova Young immigrants are more likley to catch it

• especially as they tend to work in jobs where they meet a lot of the public, or that are crowded BUT they are much less likely to die from it than older people Comparatively few people under 60 die of COVID

(if they weren't available to do those jobs, then whites would and hence would have higher risk - work has to be done by someone)

We explained this to you on the stats thread
high immigrant population, but very few of them aged 80+, brings lower overall death rates of confirmed cases in e.g. London

As someone who went to school with a large amount of Asians I can confirm that the majority of the UK public simply call them "Chinese" or "the Chinese-looking one". It was highly offensive to many of my peers.

I'm wondering if the Civil Service might leak the Russia Report? I was wondering this morning what Bozo was trying to distract from with him humble attempt to deflect from not firing Cummings. I think they thought with Sedwill off there might be a rebellion in the ranks... I think it would possibly play into Cummings hands but I can't see how else the public will ever see it.

I note also sanctions are returning to Job Centres www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/29/uk-benefit-sanctions-to-return-as-jobcentres-reopen-after-lockdown

Listening The UK govt bungled lockdown by bringing it in too late
and then has cobbled together not very impressive testing and contact tracing systems

BUT
those systems are still vastly better than the bugger-all the UK had before

AND
to imagine what deaths would have been like without lockdown,
compare Sweden:Denmark (or Germany)
A factor of 5 in deaths / million pop

That prediction of ¼ million deaths for lighter touch UK restrictions looks in the ballpark,
especially if we look at excess deaths

Also, look at the US, at the GOP states which left lockdown too early
vs NYC which locked down early

Listening Germany needed lockdown just as much as the UK

• and Germany already had pretty good testing and contact tracing systems

but exponential infection growth in a population of 83 million (with an even older median age than the UK) doesn't bear thinking about

twitter.com/blayneydeborah/status/1192183645756366848?s=21

Still, now we know so much more about how the virus spreads,
about clusters & superspreaders,
masks and SD,

no country is likely to have a 2nd national lockdown

We can all expect many local lockdowns of new outbreaks, but these are manageable

Still, now we know so much more about how the virus spreads

Let's hope the next one* is obliging enough to follow in C-19s footsteps. Because as we've seen, the UK doesn't do "agile".

*Balance of probabilities are it will be a virus. But it's not guaranteed.

BigChocFrenzy
Young immigrants are more likely to catch it - especially as they tend to work in jobs where they meet a lot of the public, or that are crowded BUT they are much less likely to die from it than older people.

Yes, I know - I have already posted today; "how many over 70s/over 80s received ventilation in Germany and survived?"

If young migrants/immigrants have only minor symptoms they are more likely to carry on with their usual day and pass the virus on to someone else (who may be older) - especially as they tend to work in low paid jobs with limited access to sick pay and benefits.

"Of the first 15 people to die from Coronavirus in Stockholm, Sweden, six were Somali immigrants.To put that in perspective, Somali immigrants account for less than a tenth of one per cent of the Swedish population."

Clav immigrants tend to be more likely to work in care homes - these people would have been exposed to residents with corona, and would likely have had a higher viral load than people in other professions.

"Trafford council’s sick pay provision for care workers has been praised as an example for other Greater Manchester councils to follow."

"The commendation came as a care worker told BBC Radio Manchester he couldn't afford to take time off work if he needed to during the COVID-19 outbreak."

"A BBC survey found 80 per cent of carers are in the same boat - they would not get paid if they had to self-isolate."

"The worker claimed some carers are going into work with coronavirus symptoms, because they feel like they don’t have a choice."

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/care-worker-claims-people-working-18252705

Immigrants are predominantly young - hardly any very elderly - so they would lower the overall death rate if anything

I'd be interested to see more data on this. For complex reasons it does seem that immigrant/black/Asian communities in western countries tend to have worse outcomes. It's obvious that these groups are more likely on average to do low wage public facing work, but there are also probably some other health inequalities at work.

For complex reasons it does seem that immigrant/black/Asian communities in western countries tend to have worse outcomes.

I have wondered a few times in the past, if genetics - genomes - sort of "settle into" a geographic region where they find a sort of balance necessary to progress, but not get out of control. Sort of phenotype v. genotype tension ?

Are "out of place" genes somehow more (or less) susceptible to diseases and genetic conditions than "acclimatised" genes ?

You can tell from (a) the way I am phrasing it and (b) the fact it is probably totally bonkers that we've pretty much reached my understanding of the subject.

Thread to enjoy some schadenfreude, starting here:

twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1277505330885386240

Just had conversation with a British couple who have a holiday home near us. They voted for Brexit and have made no arrangements whatsoever for what happens on Jan 1. They have now discovered the reality of their situation.

The blame apparently is with "Brussels".

Of course they will blame the EU. They ought to be blaming the Vote Leave campaign for telling them that we could have our cake and eat it.
Or blame May and Johnson for being crap negotiators.

The blame apparently is with "Brussels".

And will be until they die - it will never be their fault. Or the people they trusted.

Hindsight 101 - it was a waste of time to even think about trying to persuade people to change their minds. Efforts should have been exclusively focussed on those that didn't vote.

@TheElementsOfMedical

Thread to enjoy some schadenfreude, starting here:

twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1277505330885386240

Just had conversation with a British couple who have a holiday home near us. They voted for Brexit and have made no arrangements whatsoever for what happens on Jan 1. They have now discovered the reality of their situation.

The blame apparently is with "Brussels".

That thread is pure comedy gold, I'm afraid.

Mark Francois has apparently written to Michel Barnier. If this letter is not just a dead cat and has actually been sent I am embarrassed for the little one, his Con MP cohort and the country. Could we become any more of a laughing stock.

twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1277613712292155393?s=21

Clavinova I don't have age-related stats for surviving ICU in either Germany or UK, only totals

However, overall ICU deaths in Germany = 25% (nearly 50% in UK)

Also age-related death stats:
Only 36 people under 40 died in Germany
86% of deaths were aged 70+
==> Almost all deaths in ICU would be that age group

.