Westminstenders: How many Dead Cats Do You Get In A Thunderstorm?

[RedToothBrush]

It never rains. It only pours.

What I wouldn't give for a bit of old fashioned drizzle right now.

4 years on and we are facing a torment of calamities. Brexit, serious political instability in the USA ahead of an election that Trump will refuse to lose even if he does, trade deals with the rest of the world put on 6 week deadlines, anger within the commonwealth, a sick weak dependent PM on the back foot and ill briefed, rampant growing corruption in the Tory party, woke nut jobs out of touch with reality, councils on the brink of bankruptcy and the whole covid-19 crisis.

Clavinova but look very difficult to use to replace Galileo

All these desperate attempts by Tory supporters to find other positives in this purchase,
because it doesn't look fit for the original purpose of the whole damn bid

Maybe you could now find positives in Grayling's ferry contract to that firm without boats
You're on a roll !

All of this rushing after snake oil satellites does rather forget that the UK was at one time capable of putting satellites into orbit under it's own steam. Right up till it cancelled the programme in what might arguably be called "the biggest mistake in space exploration ever".

Although the incident where the Russians managed to fit a gyro upside down (it was very hard work, but they managed ) might be a close tie.

Oh BTW I see that the EU talks are going on

I wonder - from the EUs side - if they really are ? Or whether they've realised it was only ever going to be no deal, and they've just sent some telephone sanitisers to chat about sport for a bit. After all, it's not like Boris would notice. And no one would tell him.

The good news is that the Denmark-Sweden experience suggests there was no trade off between health and the economy, justifying the case for a lockdown.

Denmark and Sweden have different industries/exports: Denmark mainly exports pharmaceuticals and food (pigs/bacon) - less affected by coronavirus - Sweden relies on cars, trucks and heavy industry. Magdalena Andersson (Sweden's Minister for Finance) Financial Times.

Maybe you could now find positives in Grayling's ferry contract to that firm without boats

Low fuel costs ?

Low staffing costs ?

Cheap insurance ?

The Tories once said only they could keep us safe. Now they're the party of risk

I see BJ as a posh Arthur Daley (Minder), who went to Eton

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/29/tories-party-of-risk-covid-19-boris-johnson-public-safety

So much has changed in Britain since the Tories took power 10 years ago.

Less noticed is that the Conservative party itself has changed: from one that prioritises keeping the public safe to one happy to put us at risk.

From their cuts in police numbers
to their cosy relations with Russian donors,
from their apparent readiness to let Brexit threaten food and medical supplies
to their lack of urgency about the climate crisis,

the Conservatives have seemed increasingly cavalier about social stability, public health and national security for years.

Now their approach to Covid-19 has confirmed that impression to a frightening degree.

If you want to compare with heavy industry exports ...

Sweden's GDP predicted to fall in 2020 by about as much as Germany's, 6.5%

• but Sweden has 5 x the deaths - it has 523 deaths / million pop vs Germany's 108

Sweden has low population density, more single person households, not a huggy culture, high vitamin D from fish & supplements, a high trust in experts and the authorities

Scandi /Nordic countries share these characteristics,
so Sweden had a much better chance than e.g. the UK or France, of making a no-lockdown policy work

imo, from former Swedish colleagues, I suspect the main reason for choosing this approach are the issues of civil liberties and the Swedish Constitutional protections.

These are also the kind of issues which caused me personally serious concern about lockdown

e.g. people not being able to legally demonstrate about it, especially in the early days when policing was much tougher

I disagree with them, but they should have the right to protest, especially when a GE could be 4.5 years away.

All these desperate attempts by Tory supporters to find other positives in this purchase

Obviously there are positives otherwise the French and Chinese governments wouldn't be interested in Oneweb.

Maybe you could now find positives in Grayling's ferry contract to that firm without boats.

No positives there - only the rumour that the Irish government persuaded Arklow Shipping to pull out of the venture.

Evidence submitted to parliament includes;

"The Department informed us that it had received written assurances from Seaborne Freight’s proposed backer, the Irish shipping firm Arklow Shipping, on 18 January, having previously received [written] confirmation on 28 December [copy letter exhibited], via Seaborne, that Arklow Shipping intended to provide equity investment."

Obviously there are positives otherwise the French and Chinese governments wouldn't be interested in Oneweb.

It's an auction ?

I 'd happily believe France would simply bid to piss the UK off

And if the article about Trump preventing a foreign sale has legs, China may not be in the running at all.

Yes, it looks an interesting business venture - for countries NOT trying to replace Galileo

If it had just been announced as the UK boosting its space presence, that would have been much more realistic

Parents could be fined if they don't send their children back to school in September, education secretary warns

Interesting; the govt has decided risk will be so low to students - and staff - that they will use legal sanctions to enforce student return

Question now is whether there will be sanctions for staff previously deemed vulnerable, or even shielded

or whether schools will be required to make some accommodations for them - and which ones

https://news.sky.com/story/parents-could-be-fined-if-they-dont-send-their-children-back-to-school-in-september-education-secretary-warns-12017324

The education secretary said a detailed plan on how the government will bring all children back to the classroom for the autumn term will be set out by the end of this week.
< at last, school heads desperately need this guidance as to what they are permitted to do, e.g. abandon SD, e.g re vulnerable staff >

And another nettle finally grasped - the first local lockdown
Let's hope the delay hasn't allowed it to spread more than expected.

(tbf, some test data from commercial firms seems to take weeks before even PHE has results - but there again, whose fault is the disfunctional test system ?)

Now we see for the first time what local lockdown will actually involve in the UK
Every country will probably organise it a bit differently

Leicester to be told it must stay in current lockdown for extra two weeks after spike in COVID-19 cases

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-leicester-to-be-told-it-must-stay-in-current-lockdown-for-extra-two-weeks-after-spike-in-covid-19cases-12017156

Pubs, restaurants and hairdressers in Leicester may be forced to stay shut for two more weeks
after a rise in coronavirus cases.

If you want to compare with heavy industry exports
Sweden has 5 x the deaths - it has 523 deaths/million pop vs Germany's 108

We all know that Germany has done well compared to other countries. We could compare Sweden with Belgium - Sweden has a similar population size to Belgium (840 deaths/million pop). We could compare Denmark with Ireland - similar population sizes as well - Ireland has 351 deaths/million pop, Denmark 104.

Sweden has low population density, more single person households, not a huggy culture, high vitamin D from fish & supplements, a high trust in experts and the authorities.

Fairly high immigration in recent years I think as well.

Immigrants are predominantly young - hardly any very elderly - so they would lower the overall death rate if anything

Age is absolutely dominant as a risk
far more than almost all but the gravest health conditions:

Risk of dying from COVID, if infected, increases at 11–12% each year of age
==> risk doubles about every 6 years
==> risk multiplies x ~ 8 every 20 years

==> a 50-year-old has ~ 8 x the risk of a 30-year-old
~ 16 x the risk of a 24-year-old

==> a 63-year-old has ~ 64 x the risk of a 23-year-old
==> an 80-year-old has x ~ 500 times the risk of dying as a 20-year-old

In case I've worried the more elderly Westministenders (like me ! )

those are the comparative risks if infected

• and currently the risk of infection in the community is v low

btw, lockdown is not a left-right issue (except in the US and Brazil)

In the UK, it has generally been the young in polls who are most against it and they are heavily Labour, e.g. about 80:20 Labour :Tory for the 18-25 age group

Sweden's govt is a coalion of Socialists, Centrists & Greens
and some of the opposition Conservatives have been criticising them for the high death toll

Immigrants are predominantly young - hardly any very elderly - so they would lower the overall death rate if anything

Unless they work in factories etc. live in overcrowded conditions and then shop in the local supermarket...

I might think lockdown was worth it
if it had been matched by proper testing / tracing / treatment
but it has not been in the UK or the USA
nor will it be in most other countries around the world
and I still remain to be convinced that it will be deemed worth it in the long run
because the massive breakdown in trust now happening
bodes badly for the next pandemic
which may be much more dangerous

And back in the parallel universe that is Brexit
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53222011

Johnson now seems to think September will be just fine
cake and eat it
while doing press ups badly in his office

because the massive breakdown in trust now happening

It's not just domestic trust, but international trust.

Ironically, a sudden very real rise in xenophobia - whether justified by C-19 or not - might be A Thing. A Thing which would completely mess up plans some might have had to ship low cost labour around the world to maximise their profits. Coming over here and killing us has a far more powerful response than coming over here taking our jobs.

The fact we've seen a rise in racist incidents towards people of asian appearance in the UK suggests I'm not being too fanciful.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/europeans-trust-in-us-as-world-leader-collapses-during-pandemic

The coronavirus crisis has caused a dramatic deterioration in the European public perception of the US, extensive new polling reveals.

More than 60% of respondents in Germany, France, Spain, Denmark and Portugal said they had lost trust in the United States as a global leader.

(contd).

It would be interesting to see how that plays out if it continues and/or worsens. One of the reasons given by the Mississippian Republicans for their volte-face about the state flag is that businesses had already started seeing a decline in investment into MS with that being cited as a factor. (And MS is really poor). So a decline in inward US investment from the rest of the world might be the thing that dislodges Trump ?

What an interesting time to be alive.

The fact we've seen a rise in racist incidents towards people of asian appearance in the UK suggests I'm not being too fanciful.

More likely to do with terrorist incidents.

More likely to do with terrorist incidents.

Sorry, I should have mentioned I was talking about the UK, not planet Clav.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-hate-crimes-chinese-people-china-a9499991.html

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-51736755

www.ft.com/content/52e7062b-0cb2-448a-b944-05b3025d4542

www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/shocking-attack-woman-punched-unconcious-17796485

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/13/anti-asian-hate-crimes-up-21-in-uk-during-coronavirus-crisis

Mind you, speaking of other planets.

metro.co.uk/2020/06/28/pm-announce-250000000000-project-speed-masterplan-uk-12913095/

The Prime Minister is set to use the inspiration of the national coronavirus response for a plan dubbed ‘Project Speed’, fast-tracking major building projects across the country to fuel the UK’s economic recovery.

(contd)

£250 billion ? Yeah, right.

Your views on the lockdown pretty much equate to mine LQ.