Westminstenders: How many Dead Cats Do You Get In A Thunderstorm?

[RedToothBrush]

It never rains. It only pours.

What I wouldn't give for a bit of old fashioned drizzle right now.

4 years on and we are facing a torment of calamities. Brexit, serious political instability in the USA ahead of an election that Trump will refuse to lose even if he does, trade deals with the rest of the world put on 6 week deadlines, anger within the commonwealth, a sick weak dependent PM on the back foot and ill briefed, rampant growing corruption in the Tory party, woke nut jobs out of touch with reality, councils on the brink of bankruptcy and the whole covid-19 crisis.

Poor Mark Francois - he really doesn't realise that if he wants a trade deal with the EU he will have to abide by their rules. Barnier must have the patience of a saint.

I wish they would walk away - they will get blamed anyway, as we see on the thread about Spain. (Now who would have thought that E Europeans would want to move to sunny Spain )

Could someone ask the ERG and the Brexiters if they think they will have to abide by US rules when they get the deal they want there?

Erm ... Mark Francois isn’t on Parler.

That’s a fake account.

Is his letter fake too?

No, the letter isn’t fake, but the Parler app stuff is.

@Mistigri

Immigrants are predominantly young - hardly any very elderly - so they would lower the overall death rate if anything

I'd be interested to see more data on this. For complex reasons it does seem that immigrant/black/Asian communities in western countries tend to have worse outcomes. It's obvious that these groups are more likely on average to do low wage public facing work, but there are also probably some other health inequalities at work.

At the drop of the hat, on the top of the low wage/public facing job, you can add

• racism leading to worse health outcome (In the UK black women are 5 times more likely to die in childbirth for exaple...)
• issues with vit D levels impact immunity etc...
• worries about immigration status (in the UK) meaning that some people will not seek support or they will be asked many papers etc.. to 'prove' they can recieve NHS healthcare
• living conditons (I would imagine variable depending on what type of immigrant, where from etc... but crowded living quarters make things worse)

some of those won't apply to ALL western countries but others do

@Clavinova

The fact we've seen a rise in racist incidents towards people of asian appearance in the UK suggests I'm not being too fanciful.

More likely to do with terrorist incidents.

I havent seen that many terrorists incidents during the lockdown....

@SabrinaThwaite

Erm ... Mark Francois isn’t on Parler.

That’s a fake account.

Oh I know.

The point is, that tweet is actually correct, if a fake.

I havent seen that many terrorists incidents during the lockdown....

Was Reading not enough ?

That was ONE!! and tbh therevhas been MANY more people who have died in london from knife injuries.
So yes call me cold hearted but I dont count that as a serious terrorist incident. If the guy hadnt been from the ME, it wouldnt have made the headlines.

And that's it. That's the only thing that has happened. So certainly not incidentS that could explain a rise in racist attacks (against Aian/chinese people anyway)

Oh that letter! It's basically more 'Do You Not Know Who We Are?'. I hope Barnier gets a laugh out of it, but it's more likely to be an eyeroll.

DGR - in the rawest terms - Reading was a terrorist incident (in that it cashews terror) - but I haven't seen any evidence that is was a terror related in the commonly understood way. I have seen plenty of mention of the attackers mental health issues...... and I imagine as a refuge had no access to any real help with the management if that.

The man in Reading had a history of mental illness, so would have been an easy target for online radicalisation. Unfortunately it is still terrorism - this is the strategy, find weak easily led people and make them into weapons.

Misti BAME people have a higher death than whites of the same age
but
because COVID deaths are concentrated in the 80+ age group - which has v few BAME -
ONS stats show white deaths are about the same % as their % of the population

As I posted upthread, death risk increases x 8 for about every 20 years of age
Age absolutely dominates risk for all races, except for the tiny % of younger people with v serious health conditions

We've gone into a lot of analysis of BAME risks on the statistics threads:

The conclusion was that the highest risk factors for BAME people are:
. occupation - huge difference in risks of different jobs
. deprivation

Big difference in the USA:
African Americans are not noticeabley younger than the white population
They are very seriously disadvantaged
They are much more likely to be poor
and not to have health insurance - and hence a long history of untreated ill health

pointy A cynical strategy that the far right and Islamic terror groups both use

• online grooming of those vulnerable due to MH problems, loners especially

Oh I know.

The point is, that tweet is actually correct, if a fake

So why not add a comment to that effect?

Not the first time fake stuff has posted on here.

I assume though that any foreign firm who wants to trade here has to comply with our standards and if they were not up to standard the goods could be turned away, or if there was some sort of dispute it would be tested in the appropriate court. Why do the ERG think that firms who want to trade with the EU shouldn't be subject to EU law? I don't doubt that those who actually do trade with the EU will accept that this is now a fact of life and get on with it. (Maybe with very gritted teeth if they were Remainers.)

QuestionMarkNow
I havent seen that many terrorist incidents during the lockdown....

I assumed that DGRossetti meant this year, not just lockdown - I misinterpreted the Asian reference in any case. I think many of the racist incidents towards Chinese people occurred in Jan/Feb and early March - two of DGRossetti's links are dated 24th Feb and 4th March.

Terrorist incident in Streatham in February;

"A man has been shot dead by armed police on a busy south London high street following a terrorist-related incident in which a number of people are believed to have been stabbed."

"Witnesses said they saw a man with silver canisters strapped to his chest and holding a ‘machete’ being chased by armed plain clothes officers down Streatham High Road before being shot."

"The attacker was under active surveillance, implying he was considered to post a serious risk, and was well known to the counter-terror authorities, the Guardian understands. He was also the subject of a live investigation."

"One man and two women were injured, according to initial reports, with police confirming that one was in a life-threatening condition."

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/02/streatham-terror-incident-man-shot-by-police-in-south-london

Emergency legislation in February as well -

"Urgent crackdown on terror sentences will affect about 50 inmates."

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/11/emergency-legislation-prisoners-terror-offences

Clavinova There was a high % of BAME victims in the early UK COVID deaths too, like Sweden

It was mainly because of occupation - doctors & other fronline staff without adequate PPE
Sweden had the same issue

Sweden doesn't give stats for race, but their deaths are overwhelmingly among the very elderly,
of whom few will be Somali

btw, when BJ keeps fantasising about "worldbeating" I wish instead he'd praise the genuine worldbeater the UK has had in this crisis:

the ONS

They are simply the best

No other country has anything like as comprehensive a service,
which has such recent stats too, not much of a wait

Handled with such compassion too:

There was a lovely tweet from their Nick Stripe, saying when they processed these death stats they never forgot that each represents a person and a grieving family

Multiple reasons for BAME health inequalities. As ever it's largely biopsychosocial with poor job prospects leading to poor housing continuing the cycle of poor education due to living in "bad" neighbourhoods. There is also varying use of English (Bangladeshi was highlighted during my degree as the ones least likely to attend GP or understand and decode complex health information) which again hasn't been fully recognised with the COVID health campaign (if you can call it that). Cultures also have varying practices, such as eating with hands, not trusting medicines, prayer rituals or allowing certain education for women (obviously these vary not only on culture/religion but families) who then are expected to take on the majority of care roles (plus ca change but harder if you don't know there is a virus or what to look out for or what to do with symptoms). We've already covered how they are far more likely to take zero hours contracts jobs, work multiple jobs and not be able to isolate if they have symptoms. Trust in GP/medical professions isn't always high and some, like many men in our own country, would rather not visit a hospital or GP if they feel sick - some of course will not be registered. I was quite shocked at some minorities peers who honestly believed their country didn't have gays, for example, yet refused to see that this was because culturally it was so taboo they had never been able to admit it.

Sorry, posted too soon. Being sick in some cultures is seen as a weakness or a sign you aren't devout enough.

I could post a load of links but that's the summary

Sedwill would still be giving evidence at the COVID enquiry, once rhe crisis is over

www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jun/28/mark-sedwill-expected-to-quit-as-uks-top-civil-servant

Former senior civil servants and opposition parties have condemned the departure of Sir Mark Sedwill
as a sign the government is undermining the impartiality of the civil service,
as Downing Street defended its decision to install a political appointee to one of his former jobs.

It was announced on Sunday that Sedwill will step down as cabinet secretary, the country’s most senior civil servant, as well as Boris Johnson’s national security adviser,
following months of briefings targeting him.

BigChocFrenzy
It was mainly because of occupation - doctors & other frontline staff without adequate PPE

Does that explain the high number of staff infected with coronavirus at German medical facilities as well?

13,773 staff infected working at German hospitals, outpatient clinics and practices, dialysis clinics or outpatient nursing services.

www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-06-26-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Yep, Poulet

So far, the only established "biological" risk for BAME people is related to insulin metabolism conditions, important risk factor for COVID and one which they are more likely to have,
even after accounting for poverty

• Africans & Asians store bodyfat more around the middle, hence their recommended BMI is lower than that for a white person.