Westministenders: The Truth Isn't A Made Up Concept

[RedToothBrush]

“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”

Not George Orwell but often attributed to him. But a powerful statement with resonance nonetheless

In Germany, confirmed or suspected cases are legally required to stay home 24/7, with no exceptions. They have groceries etc delivered, with help if needed.

My nephew went to Australia and from what he said it was similar. The family was quarantined for two weeks in a flat provided for them, and food and supplies brought to them. Contrast that with the UK where anyone could return from an infected country and make their way home on public transport, with no one checking up on them.

Relying on public spirit isn't enough when the consequences are so serious

Except that they did rely on public spirit and the vast majority did obey. The country has been badly let down by the situation happening in care homes, but to Johnson and co, it was someone else's granny so it didn't matter. Then we have the Cummings farrago, where it is apparently fine to travel the length of the country in case you might not be able to look after your child, and Johnson has backed him to the hilt.

So it's too Bl**dy right that you can no longer rely on public co-operation. Those people who have suffered by obeying the rules have been played for fools. And really, if you know that all you have been doing is a weekly supermarket trip, and you have kept your distance from others so you are unlikely to have been infected, would it really have hurt to visit a grandparent or a dying relative? Especially if that relative was dying of something unrelated to Covid? The individual families could have been allowed to be the judge of that.

Surely, if they were that bad, he’d have informed the police, even had some kind of bodyguard?

Surely if the protestors were that bad they would have been on the ball enough to have noticed Dom scuttling off to Durham and not returning?

Or were they merely incompetent, barracking an empty house with its abandoned tapestry room and a reading room slowly accumulating dust on those beloved Bismarck biographies?

Bismarck biographies ?
I thought it would be Kant philosophies.
Or maybe that's just Dominic himself 😂

.

DGR that would be funnier if it wasn't true.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/sage-minutes-reveal-how-uk-advisers-reacted-to-coronavirus-crisis

It says Public Health England could cope with “five new cases a week (requiring isolation of 800 contacts)”, with potential capacity to increase to 50 new cases and 8,000 contact isolations.

Wtf.

How many new cases a week are we having? It's currently running at about 2000. That have been confirmed

I'm not going mad am I? The above figures suggest about 160 contact isolations per new case. That works out at 320,000 contact isolations per day at current rates. That's right isn't it?

How is that even going to be feasible?

This meeting concludes that “transmission is under way in the community” and that modelling suggests “the UK is 10-14 weeks from the epidemic peak if no mitigations are introduced”. It hears that the UK could have up to 10,000 cases already, and is about four to five weeks behind Italy.

This was way off the mark. An admission made just three days later by SAGE that the situation was far worse than we realised. (We ended up tracking at more like 10 days behind Italy.)

The 10th March meeting is key in that it says
There is also an acknowledgment of the looming crisis to come in care homes. “Sage advised that special policy consideration be given to care homes and various types of retirement communities.”

There was no specific policy given to care homes for weeks and weeks after this date.

On the 1st May Sage discusses the test-and-trace system and agrees “that at least 80% of contacts of an index case would need to be contacted for a system to be effective”.

^“For the test-and-trace system to be effective, isolation of contacts of individuals with Covid-19 within 48 hours was desirable.

“The aim should be to develop the capability to test index cases in less than 24 hours … It is considered essential that this testing capability is reached before the autumn/winter flu season when a large number of those reporting symptoms may not have Covid-19.”^

We know we are no where near that point and questions on this have been dodged by Johnson this week. Media need to focus on this...

On 5th May Sage says relaxing lockdown measures should not happen until new cases have dropped to a low level – not on a fixed date.

So the Government ultimately go for a fixed date...

There are lots of unanswered and somewhat disturbing questions here...

I also note the following
Preliminary results of a study indicate that “the virus decays rapidly when exposed to artificial sunlight”.

It notes some rare symptoms or complications that are emerging, including “cerebrovascular events, renal disease and systemic endothelial and organ dysfunction. Also notes longer term health problems, including “extreme tiredness and shortness of breath for months.”

So if we hadn't had the sunniest spring on record this would be loads worse.

And there's a lot more concern about long term effects than we realise.

Certainly it's very arguable that we are ready for lockdown to be relaxed and even more arguable that track and trace is for purpose. We know that its not due to be fully operational until the end of June (where are we going to be with the number of cases and contacts by that point?!) and given the government's track record on operational deadlines slipping, I'd say end of June was on the optimist side.

Here's an interesting article from the Spectator:

www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-isn-t-fit-to-lead/amp?__twitter_impression=TRUE
Boris Johnson isn’t fit to lead

Because, in the end, this is not a story about Dominic Cummings but, rather, one about the Prime Minister.

And

There is little escaping an obvious reality: this is a prime minister without clothes. The country can see this, even if cabinet ministers and Tory MPs pretend not to. He is what he is and he is not up to the job. In sunnier times this might not matter so very much but these are not the best of times and, right now, a significant portion of the Prime Minister’s responsibilities are wrapped up in his ability to inspire confidence. He is the captain of the ship and voters are entitled to think he is paying attention.

And

The prime minister should really watch his tone. His government’s response has turned a story into a scandal. A better, more empathetic, Downing Street regime would have appreciated the need for contrition at this moment. Instead the government has doubled-down on arrogant dismissal. As is so often the case, a notional demonstration of strength and resolve actually reveals the deep weaknesses at the heart of this government.

Johnson fan then...

This article Is well worth reading www.theguardian.com/books/2020/may/30/this-man-knows-hes-dying-as-surely-as-i-do-a-doctors-dispatches-from-intensive-care

The whole of Spectator article is worth reading. It's damning.

Well this is interesting - we've had months to prepare a great system, but no, looks like the govt did nothing whilst the public were trustingly waiting at home www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/30/boris-johnsons-test-and-tracing-system-britain-lockdown?CMP=fb_cif&fbclid=IwAR3BKOK4SJZS7inHPsHDGT_SldIyfux7pqFtedt7lHI7hdqZRtCOp87oRPI

I've heard nothing from the job so am assuming I haven't even got an interview. Disappointing after the enthusiastic initial response from them but if this is anything to go by I would have been frustrated. anyway.

The anti-Dom demos in the street started after he came back and the story broke.

If he's talking about online threats, Remainers say welcome to our world: Traitors, Enemies of the People etc.....

I said early on he should have called the police if getting threats and I am sure they would have a record of it. He needs to prove it was happening if it is part of his "defence".

Just reading the SAGE timeline and can't help feeling it sounds as though we were being advised by a shed full of Collin's. Who would suggest not closing public transport or quarantining visitors even if it did only save 5 days? Oh no, better not! This is where countries with women in charge have been strict; every day matters. Although not if your govt just sits about waiting for something to 'naturally' improve like ours appears to. It screams lazy Etonian.

FT stats geek

• btw, mortality rate = deaths / million population, rather than IFR (Infection Fatality Rate)

SkyNewss@SkyNews*

Data visualisation journalist @jburnmurdoch says the UK has the second worst #COVID19 mortality rate,
but England alone would have the highest mortality rate in the world.

mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1266332047448117251

“It really depends on where we draw the borders.
If we’re looking at the UK as a whole, the UK is now very slightly behind Spain for the worst mortality rate of all countries that we have this data for.

If we were to change that and look at England alone, England is now actually the highest in the world.

“This is over the whole period for which any country has been seeing a Covid outbreak.
So for the UK and for England we’re talking about the last eight weeks of data, which goes back to the period in early to mid-March
and takes us right the way through to the latest data we have which comes to May 15.”

I said early on he should have called the police if getting threats and I am sure they would have a record of it. He needs to prove it was happening if it is part of his "defence".

Perhaps they were busy attending to domestics at no. 10 ?

From my Twitter feed .. (archaeologist Francis Pryor is more direct ...)

They should have consulted with Ben Warner earlier on the best communication management approach. Instead Dom and Boris decided what to say between themselves. That turned out to be a mistake as it revealed both of their true attitudes to the public (outrage at being told what to do by the great unwashed). Now big time backtracking with the 'threat of violence' line of defence. That might have worked if it a) had any tenuous relationship to the truth and they b) thought of it as their first explanation. Really too late to bring it in now.

Anyone remember me mentioning Barnard Castle and coincidences ?

If you want proof that the Universe is trolling us, did anyone know (before HIGNFY) that "Barnard Castle" is centuries old slang for a pisspoor excuse ?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnard_Castle_(castle)

"Barney Castle" is a phrase in the dialect of County Durham meaning "a pathetic excuse", generally thought to derive from the incident when Bowes retreated into the castle. Eric Partridge included the phrase in A Dictionary of Slang and Unconventional English (1937).[12]

Up until now, I have innocently assumed Johnson's majority would keep him comfortably in power until the next election.

Now I am wondering if he will face a leadership challenge after the next big cock-up. He has already nailed his colours to the Dom and been widely condemned for it. Given this Government's terrifying ineptitude, it could happen before the end of 2020.

DG - nice try!

@spottedelk

DG - nice try!

Huh ?

Up until now, I have innocently assumed Johnson's majority would keep him comfortably in power until the next election.

In times gone by, it might have. But these are unusual times and they can't all work to favour one side (as Charlie Brooker noted recently The cunts can't keep rolling sixes )

That said, I can easily imagine this government refusing to go after any of the traditional (but mysteriously informal) failures of government - losing a vote on a manifesto or a money bill. At which point: what ? What then ? Now we know her Majesty is of fuck all use (I say "now" some of us have said that for decades, only to be told to shut up and tug our forelocks) there really is no power to hold a corrupt or bankrupt government to account.

For nerdy old gits (raises hands) of a certain age and waistline, it's hard not to imagine no. 10 as akin to Davros' bunker in "Genesis of the Daleks" where all the moderate scientists are flushed out for early retirement while the bully boys move in.

(Too niche ?)

I can't see them wanting to get rid of him right now. They firstly, in their eyes, must miss the deadline for an extension to the transition period, with the EU. Then come December they must crash out without a deal. So next spring would be a good time for the leadership contest - when the economy is in a total mess from the effects of Covid and Brexit combined and that is when Johnson and Cummings are likely to throw in the towel. Which also fits with the story in the Mail about Cummings quitting in six months.

No sane member would want to be leader now.
Much better for the party to let Johnson own the clusterfuck(s) to the bitter end and get rid of him next summer
with a leader who can rebuild the country
using those 2.9m fresh Hong Kong UK citizens

From the BBC Live reporting...

This should not be treated as a political crisis', says scientist

There will be an increase in infection rates as a result of the way the lockdown is being eased, according to a scientist who belongs to a group which advises the UK government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage).

Prof Robert West, who is part of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours but is speaking in a personal capacity, says the government is "not taking its responsibilities for political leadership seriously" and the easing poses "a huge risk".

"This should not be treated as a political crisis but as a health crisis. If you treat it as a political crisis it's all about managing your reputation, if you treat it as a health crisis it's about saving lives," he says.

Asked about the impact of the lockdown conduct of the PM's top aide Dominic Cummings, he says trust in authority will become "even more important" when restrictions apply to some people but not others.

My underlining. Quite.