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Brexit

Westminstenders: Following the EU lead

969 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2020 17:50

Coronavirus poses a particularly Irish shaped question. How the UK responds to Irish plans for ending lockdown and whether Arlene continues to back an all Ireland plan will be fascinating to watch and see justified regardless of which way we go.

The UK for all its new found independence is looking very closely to the success / failure of EU strategies before making our own plan public. Mainly because we've yet to write one.

Johnson hasn't led much. He's delegated. Yet he gets all the praise for doing the sum total of fuck all and never being the bad guy. There always another fall guy to blame.

Economically we are stuffed and promises of a very quick bounce back don't look likely based on public confidence and willingness to return to places like pubs restaurants and shops.

Our ability to adapt to new conditions at short notice has been tested and businesses can not afford to do this again soon.

This is the background to which we go into talks. Both sides need an extension to serve their best interests. Johnson is determined to cut our nose of to spite our face for the sake of his legacy and to keep those paying the back handers and dodging tax happy.

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HesterThrale · 08/05/2020 10:11

Thanks Mockers! I need to learn more about this.

Btw, Johnson’s speech on Sunday is at 7pm.

So if he does announce any changes at all for Monday, it wouldn’t give employers /businesses /police /schools much time to prepare. So my guess is there'll be hardly any immediate alterations at all.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52585373

Peregrina · 08/05/2020 10:12

I would say then that this was only partially correct - it's an official language; saying the implies it's the only official language. Perhaps I am being pedantic.

MockersxxxxxxxSocialDistancing · 08/05/2020 10:14

See Irish, the "First Official Language" of the Republic, but in practice all official business in govt and the courts is conducted in the second official language.

BurneyFanny · 08/05/2020 10:18

but every character is a vowel

Other way round, none of the characters are vowels.

prettybird · 08/05/2020 10:18

Some interesting graphs here (if it's not already been posted), splitting countries amongst those that are "winning", those that are nearly there and those that still have work to do spoiler alert, the UK is not in the first two categories

https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries?fbclid=IwAR1Zkq0S2WiczBYda9cRMcfY8QTm8wCpIcWfOLJnuLlIpsiaVUrv_VH3HLI

Clavinova · 08/05/2020 10:19

French dentists have copied German doctors by posing naked over shortages of ppe;

www.dentistry.co.uk/2020/04/29/french-dentists-pose-naked-protest-ppe/

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/german-doctors-pose-naked-in-protest-at-ppe-shortages

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 10:22

"You'd need good regional data for this. The UK's regions are too large and critically have no devolved govt structures."

That's one of the problems with the UK, Misti being so heavily centralised
The national govt does most of the thinking and for several years now, that govt has been pretty thick.

There aren't adequate devolved structures to compensate, at least not in the English regions
NS for example, partly looks so competent because Westminster is so shambolic

I've been surprised how well the federal system in Germany has worked during this crisis,
with the 16 states each having their own elected leaders and Parliaments

Before, I expected that a serious threat within Germany would cause chaos with them pulling in 16 different directions.
Merkel has had to do some cat-herding, but it's been surprising how sensible the various leaders and main parties have been - so far ! -
and imo having to get such wide regional and political consensus has turned out to be a strength

Also, the technical competence of the 401 administrative districts, each with their own health officers, sounded a recipe for chaos,
but it has worked very efficiently, as they know their own patch so well.

The 200+ labs scattered around the country were amazingly quick to react to the crisis when called upon,
whereas one would expect the small number of UK super-labs to be more efficient

One weakness I do see here is the month-long delay in obtaining detailled national statistics,
a rare example of inefficiency,
because of the need to obtain and analyse data from so many sources

Germany needs to aim for the ONS standard
Better and faster data helps decision-making

The ONS is the one shining light where I'd say the UK fulfills BJ'S ambition to be a "world leader"
Hopefully that won't be cut back, or sold off to the USA for its data.....

Emilyontmoor · 08/05/2020 10:23

Elements Flowers Thanks! Fascinating.

My grandfather in law was a sanitary engineer in Hong Kong around the war years, he got an extra allowance for speaking Hakka as well as Cantonese. The Hakka people of course had the barren rock to themselves until Jardine persuaded Britain (by a very narrow parliamentary majority) to fight his trade war for him in the mid nineteenth century. One of those moments where it could have turned out so differently.....

Peregrina · 08/05/2020 10:27

I assume that the dots over various parts of arabic script are the vowels? Are they only put in for the sake of clarity - lk w cld do in nglsh if we need to?

Peregrina · 08/05/2020 10:30

"You'd need good regional data for this. The UK's regions are too large and critically have no devolved govt structures."

But we could have made much more use of the local structures that we still have, but the present government isn't interested. They would much rather bung money at their wealthy cronies in private firms.

DGRossetti · 08/05/2020 10:43

Morning all ...

I wonder if the newspapers are/were trying to engineer an end to lockdown "by accident" ? Much as the real reason the Berlin Wall came down was due to confusion and incompetence within the East German government ?

I feel I've been unfair to the East Germans now - they can't have been more useless that this lot.

Emilyontmoor · 08/05/2020 10:44

Maths Testing, contact tracing and quarantine are in place and successfully controlling the pandemic, and reducing death rates, in several countries in Asia.

I am not sure how it works elsewhere but in Hong Kong if you request a test then someone in full PPE turns up at your door usually within an hour. If positive you go straight to hospital. I posted a link to a SCMP article about the special COVID negative air pressure wards that have been set up even for well patients. They are monitored and moved to treatment wards if they develop any treatable symptoms. Their contacts are traced and they have a holiday camp and a couple of new build blocks where the contacts are sent for 14 days quarantine, temperatures taken several times daily. Yes it can result in whole workplaces being quarantined, notably the SCMP office itself. Incoming travellers have to self isolate for 14 days and are fitted with wrist bands to make sure they comply, one student who went out was set on by umbrella wielding grannies. I have several friends who have been in quarantine, it is basic but nobody minds as it is keeping everyone safe. There have only been 4 deaths in Hong Kong. Reading the stories of those who went into quarantine here when it was still operating I get the same impression that people were resigned to it because they could see it was for good reason. The arrangements were all already in place as a result of SARS as they were in Taiwan and South Korea along with a whole raft of other measures such as mask wearing, temperature taking in public places/airports etc. School closures, working from home and a public willingness to comply. Of course they acted quickly and kept a lid on it. The end result is that businesses are still operating with social distancing , restaurants are open and people allowed to meet up providing it is in a maximum of 4 people. It works.

Of course with 20000 cases a day, limited testing, not utilising the public health infrastructure for contact tracing etc. Etc. Etc, the U.K. is far from having the resources to implement that now...,

Clavinova · 08/05/2020 10:46

I would just say that it seems to me that NHS capacity was built up for COVID at the expense of many other treatments.
Yes, a friend's long awaited surgery for a knee replacement postponed.

Similar in other countries -

Australia - 26th March - "Starting on Thursday, non-urgent elective surgeries in Australia's public hospitals will be suspended" ...

"The new rules apply to both the public and private health systems."

"All category three surgeries and most category two surgeries will be temporarily suspended."

"According to the National Elective Surgery Urgency Categorisation Guideline published by the Australian Health Ministers' Advisory Council, surgeries usually deemed category three include:"

Total hip replacement
Total knee replacement...

www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-what-do-the-changes-to-elective-surgery-mean-for-you/12091804

ohdrearydrearyme · 08/05/2020 10:55

Finally delurking - I've been reading along and appreciating the analysis and chat since the first thread - to talk (at length, sorry!) about Arabic.
Arabic has a limited number of vowels sounds. Basically a, i and u, as well as dipthongs of these. Each vowel can be short or long. The long vowels are written, the short vowels can be represented, but usually appear only in writing for schoolkids learning to read. The dots you see form part of the letters, and are not vowels. For example, b has a dot under it. The same shaped letter with two dots above it is a t.
As far as mutual intelligibility goes, books are written in Modern Standard Arabic, which follows the same grammar rules no matter where it's written, but is essentially the mother tongue of no-one. Essentially it works as a lingua franca. Different dialects of Arabic vary in how much they diverge from MSA, with vowels and consonants being pronounced differently in different regions, and vocabulary differing as well. Thing about the vocabulary difference between the UK and America, it's like that, but greater. Egyptian Arabic is not as close to MSA as some other dialects, but Egypt has a large movie industry that means their dialect has become fairly widely understood.
In case it's not already apparent, I'm a language nerd.
On the question above of which language to learn, I'd second Malay. Nice and straightforward and also really cool in how word formation works.
Back to lurking now...

DGRossetti · 08/05/2020 10:56

I wonder how people with conditions that can't wait (pregnancy being the most obvious) are faring. Cancers spreading, not being identified, cardiovascular issues going undiagnosed, silent chronic conditions like diabetes stealing peoples limbs and sight ? The rise of DIY dentistry leading to some spectacular infections and deaths ?

Oh well. Shit happens. I guess.

QuestionMarkNow · 08/05/2020 10:56

The NHS capacity was build in refusing to take in patients until they are very sick rather than just having difficulty breathing.

All countries have done that but the uK has gone much further.

That’s why, despite having the highest number deaths, we haven’t had the same level of overwhelmed seen in Italy for example.
It’s not that we had more beds (we had less) or that we were better prepared.

DGRossetti · 08/05/2020 11:00

ohdrearydrearyme epitomises the problem in the UK at the moment ... the educated, intelligent, thoughtful and considered people are keeping their heads down, while the agenda-drive war of the media rattles above threatening to remove anything above the parapet.

Nixons "silent majority" made real.

QuestionMarkNow · 08/05/2020 11:01

As for conditions that can’t wait.... of course this is the real issue. How many people have or will die because they dint receive the right care? What if there are more people dying because of that than Covid? People who died from te lack of access to healthcare, suicide, domestic violence, fear over accessing care (eg pain in the chest)

I don’t think we will know until things have settled down and you can look at numbers/total number of deaths etc.... (As long as deaths cause is reported accurately....)

DGRossetti · 08/05/2020 11:10

As for conditions that can’t wait.... of course this is the real issue. How many people have or will die because they dint receive the right care? What if there are more people dying because of that than Covid? People who died from te lack of access to healthcare, suicide, domestic violence, fear over accessing care (eg pain in the chest)

People dying is fine. Generally death is cheap. In fact deaths are quite handy for the public purse, as they mean no more pension payments. (Why do people think smoking is still legal ?)

It's much more about the people - a non trivial number I fear - that will emerge from this not dead, but disabled. Sight fucked because a progressive condition wasn't treated. Limbs lost because diabetes went unnoticed. Hearts and lungs weakened because of preventable heart attacks. Strokes that could have been prevented leading to paralysis and a need for daily care.

A potential massive increase in disabilities under the least sympathetic government since VE day (see what I did there ? Seems to be a game we can all play.) leading into a period when I imagine most benefits are going to be stopped and reduced anyway.

It used to be said about The Black Death that the living will envy the dead.

HesterThrale · 08/05/2020 11:10

ohdrearydrearyme Hi! Thanks for delurking to explain about Arabic. Fascinating.

There really is a spectacular wealth of knowledge amongst the readers of this thread.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 11:14

Those opposed to lockdown are inventing fanatasies about large numbers dying because they can't go to hospital

However, urgent cases are being seen - if people choose to go
Some treatments are being cancelled, because doctors assess the risk of infection as unacceptable to staff or patients

Ending lockdown won't magically end either the risk, or the fear of going to hospital or doctors' waiting rooms,
where so many infections occur

Those deaths won't be "from" COVID, but they will be indirectly caused by it - NOT by lockdown

Without lockdown, there would be far more infections, so far more people not being treated for non-COVID ailments

ohdrearydrearyme · 08/05/2020 11:16

@ DGR, in my case, essentially, what could I usefully bring to any discussion? I am not from or in the UK.
I feel a connection, though, as I did do my PhD there, but left immediately after finishing, as it was made explicit to foreign students like me that we were unwelcome and had one month time (could have been three months, I forget) after graduating to wrap up our affairs, after which we should be gone. Some people did jump through various hoops to remain, but to me it felt ridiculous to work hard on remaining where I was not wanted. This was the late 90s, btw, so the problems of this ilk in the UK have been present a long time.
So now I just observe sadly from afar.

FrankieStein402 · 08/05/2020 11:19

The specific covid-sim model seems to be focused on modelling infection/death rates with the fundamental uk modelling cell being population density in 1km squares - intervention modelling is based on 4 'Place types' (work, school, home, hospital I think)
Apart from what you might proxy by various parameters there is no obvious resource modelling. If any that would be another tool using the outputs from this. It's not really flu specific as the virus behaviour is parameterised.

However, as you say, the key actions for HMG to take were identified by cygnus - but I think they were so frightened of the NHS failing, either by Italy, the model or witty's back of envelope calculations they focused on flattening the peak and whoever predicted ventilator needs - simply forgetting about ppe, care homes etc.

Cobra could not have read cygnus and did what they did/didnt.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 11:20

Although my eye specialist and my GP will be open as normal from Monday,

I won't be going for my delayed eye checkup
or my delayed annual bloods etc at the GP (just the standard ones for over-60s)

My dentist will open the week after, but I won't go for that delayed checkup either

The risk has not changed from one day to the next just because of a govt decision - which was driven by economics

Even though the risk in Germany is currently far lower than in the UK and I'm fit,
I judge the risk of being indoors with a bunch of other patients is significantly higher than the risk of something I haven't noticed being serious.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 11:22

The risks, direct and indirect, come from the virus, not from govt restrictions