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Brexit

Westminstenders: Following the EU lead

969 replies

RedToothBrush · 02/05/2020 17:50

Coronavirus poses a particularly Irish shaped question. How the UK responds to Irish plans for ending lockdown and whether Arlene continues to back an all Ireland plan will be fascinating to watch and see justified regardless of which way we go.

The UK for all its new found independence is looking very closely to the success / failure of EU strategies before making our own plan public. Mainly because we've yet to write one.

Johnson hasn't led much. He's delegated. Yet he gets all the praise for doing the sum total of fuck all and never being the bad guy. There always another fall guy to blame.

Economically we are stuffed and promises of a very quick bounce back don't look likely based on public confidence and willingness to return to places like pubs restaurants and shops.

Our ability to adapt to new conditions at short notice has been tested and businesses can not afford to do this again soon.

This is the background to which we go into talks. Both sides need an extension to serve their best interests. Johnson is determined to cut our nose of to spite our face for the sake of his legacy and to keep those paying the back handers and dodging tax happy.

OP posts:
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JeSuisPoulet · 07/05/2020 22:59

BCF I enjoyed your post about the data going in being the most important for modelling. I did say that in my first post to my modelling friend on FB, which prompted him to look at German figures and resulted (3 days later) in him declaring Merkel "wrong" Grin

He is so busy showing off his skillz he hasn't realised how many people are watching his personal mathawank session with added eugenic lube with Shock face.

BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2020 23:00

Late March, there was a "leak" - probably official ! - from the German Health ministry of a worse case prediction:
1 million German dead

That seemed to be simple multiplication too,
with the 70% infection rate Merkel warned about, on our 83 million pop, with what our experts estimated for the death rate

BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2020 23:04

Sky - Friday papers:

The Guardian
reports the government is "urgently trying to regain control" of its plans to ease some lockdown measures
as it faced criticism over mixed messaging.

The Times
Britons will be kept in lockdown until at least June
as there are fears outbreaks in care homes and hospitals could make any significant relaxation of the measures too dangerous

The Daily Telegraph
leads on Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer's calls to protect the VE Day generation from coronavirus in care homes,
< clever lockdown politics, smarmy bugger >
as it emerged the government "paid little attention" to concerns that care homes could collapse under the strain of the pandemic.

Westminstenders: Following the EU lead
Westminstenders: Following the EU lead
Westminstenders: Following the EU lead
RedToothBrush · 07/05/2020 23:13

That's real cold water being poured on hopes of an end to lockdown. Trouble is it's starting to breakdown anyway...

I have that feeling where I'm starting to worry again. Messaging and expectations need to be fairly aligned otherwise you get additional problems. (Basically we might be just about to enter a point where we manage to fuck up lockdown and render it ineffective unlike other countries).

I hope I'm wrong.

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2020 23:35

Well, red the UK govt have been fucking up most things since 2015
So looking at the record ...

Seriously though, the daily level of new cases is still much higher than countries now relaxing lockdown
and as I posted upthread, under Merkel's new braking criteria, would qualify the whole UK to be locked down again

So I hope lockdown would continue until figures are much lower

  • but with limits removed asap on outdoor activity for households observing social distancing e.g. exercise, sunbathing, picnics
BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2020 23:40

I'd like to protect over-60s, which is the German age criteria for increased risk,
with an UBI equal to full state pension, to run until they actually receive state pension

That would especially protect some of the lowest paid, who are usually at the highest risk
I'm thinking especially of the 60-65-year old HCPs and care staff, also those in supermarkets

BigChocFrenzy · 07/05/2020 23:41

Same for all the others who are shielded

JeSuisPoulet · 07/05/2020 23:44

Red I can see that happening too. I think it is more by design and deliberate mixed messages/communication though...blame the silly people, take the heat of us with a second wave much worse than the first - see "our" govt wave wasn't so bad after all!

Peregrina · 07/05/2020 23:46

I would just say that it seems to me that NHS capacity was built up for COVID at the expense of many other treatments

Yes, a friend's long awaited surgery for a knee replacement postponed. MIL's test for cancer - cancelled. Admittedly this was something they were not sure about, so this might not be too much of a problem. I don't know what happened to the woman I know waiting for a heart bypass. It ought to have been possible to isolate the Covid patients and keep a reduced service available for the rest.

BTW - I think the lockdown is breaking. I think if it does break and they have to re-impose it, there will be a significant amount of anger.

Sir Keir Starmer's calls to protect the VE Day generation from coronavirus in care homes,

Smart move Sir Keir. No one under 92/93 can have seen active service in WW2 and even anyone born in say 1939 is only going to have sketchy memories.

Emilyontmoor · 07/05/2020 23:59

Smart move Sir Keir I get the rational point, quite correct but the people jumping to the jingoism are not rational. They will not bother to do the maths and will lump all the over 70s into the war generation (probably the over 60s too). Even people I thought were sensible are jumping in the red white and blue emoti train this Friday, it is depressing that they do not get the irony.

FrankieStein402 · 08/05/2020 00:02

The important bit is Whitty's expert estimates of max 80% infection rate and max 1% death rate

I understand the point you're making but that's just providing the 'oh shit' number, one number isn't enough - how do you decide between lockdown levels, how do you identify the levels of icu/ppe etc that are needed - models of some sort have utility.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 00:07

"It ought to have been possible to isolate the Covid patients and keep a reduced service available for the rest."

The problem was that they were not organised or equipped to do this until more recently

  • it really needs v quick testing of each patient on entry - so there were a lot of hospital-acquired infections for patients who went in for other things and caught it from people who had not yet displayed symptoms.

Also, there are a significant % of false negatives, so even with the best system, every country has had some infection spread in hospitals

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 00:26

Frankie Levels of ICU / PPE would be 20% of that worst case figure - Whitty should have taken that from Chinese & Italian data

Imperial's ½ million dead scenario would have highlighted the high need for PPE - if it was indeed designed to calculate PPE requirements at all ?
If so, it was just ignored until too late

However, the govt and Whitty already knew there was insufficient even for a flu pandemic, because their 2016 test proved it
So they should have been ordering a lot more anyway, professional judgement, but they were too late and other countries had bought it up

Lockdown is as early as you think the public will tolerate, because early has the most effect.
Strictest is always best in theory, but might not be adhered to

  • would the Imperial model even calculate compliance level vs strictness ?

imo, there was too little data about COVID to feed into a model and get any better results than a CMO and staff using their experience and intelligence

I'd have had more confidence if the pandemic had actually been flu, which the code was designed to model,
but even then a model should support Whitty making such decisions, rather than leading him.

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 00:30

The model would provide useful supplementary info

e.g. I suspect Whitty got his "3-week peak" in the worst case scenario from that,
not his judgement
He could have played with flattening the curve and several scenarios to get a feel for the parameters that he could actually change

However, the basic decision on ordering lockdown asap - and ordering loads of PPE, should have been taken anyway by a responsible govt

Emilyontmoor · 08/05/2020 00:31

mrslaughan Yes but it looks as if the Italian to Spanish understanding worked well enough to communicate the pandemic response. Of course in business interaction you need more subtlety of interaction, especially as Cantonese is the more difficult language, 9 tones instead of 4. However I am quite sure language had little to do with the world’s, and in particular the UK’s complacency in the face of a pandemic Taiwan was signposting in December. Imagine if we had all reacted then as they did, or even Hong King by January or South Korea by February. How many would have been saved?

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 00:42

BoE Governor

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52577048

The governor said the recovery would be "nowhere near as fast" as the fall we are currently experiencing.
This is based on an assumption the economy will only be gradually released from lockdown.

Its numbers contain some considerable expectations that consumer and worker behaviour will change,
and continue for some time, with forms of voluntary social distancing.

On the other hand, Mr Bailey expects the recovery to be "much faster" than seen with the financial crisis a decade ago,
as long as there are "the right measures in place from the public health side - that is, no second wave -

and the fact that it's supposed by the very sensible things that the government has done in terms of the measures that the chancellor has put in place,
that economic activity can recover much more quickly".

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 00:53

What I'm sure wasn't in any model is the fact that a global pandemic means every country scrambling to buy PPE
So the market running out.

The code also may not have highlighted ventilators - being intended for flu - but Italy showed the importance of those

So the decision about PPE and ventilators should have been to order as much as you can,
not limited to the assumption of the best case lockdown scenario

That again is experience, common sense and looking at rl in Italy

BigChocFrenzy · 08/05/2020 01:02

Coronavirus: Leaked report reveals government was warned pandemic plans were 'not sufficient'

Leaked some days ago

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-leaked-report-reveals-government-was-warned-pandemic-plans-were-not-sufficient-11984773

A secret report warned three years ago that the UK's plans for dealing with a health pandemic were "not sufficient", it has been revealed.

The leaked Whitehall document drawn up three years ago said contingencies worked up in case of an outbreak such as the coronaviruss^ crisis would not be able to "cope".

The 57-page dossier by Public Health England, obtained by The Guardian newspaper,
was commissioned after a 2016 simulation of a flu pandemic codenamed Exercise Cygnus.

mathanxiety · 08/05/2020 06:51

Just chipping in on the question of Mandarin vs 'Chinese'...

My local high school calls their course 'Mandarin Chinese'. This might be like calling a British language course Irish Celtic/Gàidhlig Celtic/Cymraeg Celtic, or Scots.
It's very unusual to see a course called simply 'Chinese'. Rosetta Stone specifies that they teach 'Mandarin Chinese'.
www.rosettastone.com/learn-chinese/

Mandarin is aka 'Modern Standard Chinese' (Putonghua) and is based on the dialect of Beijing, though there are several dialects of Mandarin. It's a heavily promoted, semi-artificial language, similar to Taiwanese Mandarin but not exactly the same.

Cantonese is the main everyday language of HK and Macau, with MSC taught in schools and becoming more prominent. Cantonese (Yue) is being squeezed out. There is a serious political motive behind the spread of Mandarin in Canton/Guangdong and into HK.

The major Chinese languages (there are 7-13 regional groups, or 8-10 depending on how you count them, with a total language count of about 300 in all) are, generally speaking, mutually unintelligible and even subgroups within those main groups are mutually unintelligible, to different degrees, with some transitional geographical areas where merging of languages or learning of neighbouring languages is occurring or has occurred. There are also non-Sinitic languages, in the north, far west, and bordering Laos and Vietnam.

The idea of a nationally understood language has always been part of the approach by any administration, Imperial or Communist, seeking to establish and maintain control over the state's many and varied ethnic groups, 56 in all as currently recognised. The term 'Modern Standard Chinese' is as much a political manifesto as a name for a language. It's the language of literacy for hundreds of millions of Chinese.

mathanxiety · 08/05/2020 07:13

ListeningQuietly
Test Trace
Lockdown and made up 2m rule not needed if you make those two work

Test trace - and then what?
Hospitalise? Send positive testers into quarantine?

What about traced contacts? Do they go into quarantine?

What about all their families and contacts?

For example:
Test/trace is conducted in a school with 30 staff members, and all of them have had lengthy periods of contact with someone determined to have an active case. Let's say it's the PE teacher. She sees all the students at least once a week. She sits and eats her lunch in the staff room.
Or maybe it's someone who works in the lunch room, who sees all the students daily and works alongside the rest of the staff.
Does the school have to close if all the teachers and staff have to quarantine?
Do vulnerable individuals working in the schools have to return to work or risk losing their jobs? Pregnant women, individuals with asthma, heart conditions, older individuals who are overweight, those with diabetes?
Let's say there was a recent parent teacher meeting - do all the parents who sat across a desk from the PE teacher have to quarantine?
What about students with certain medical conditions?
Where do the children go if quarantine is advised?
Who looks after them when their school is closed?
Do their parents have to stop work or try to pawn them off on grandparents?
Should grandparents look after them?

How do you avoid a situation where employees of major factories, bakeries, refineries, food/beverage processors, etc in certain towns end up shutting their doors at a few hours notice, which you are going to have to do if you rely on 'test trace' and schools shut down as a result of this approach?

How do you make those two work?
Your post seems to rely heavily on the assumption that hardly anyone will test positive and there will be little or no disruption as a result of a positive test in any working environment.

mathanxiety · 08/05/2020 07:16

I am speaking as someone who went grocery shopping today and found beef purchases limited to five lbs per customer, thanks to closed meat processing facilities.

Also speaking from a city that is going through withdrawal symptoms thanks to the closure of the factory that makes the best corn tortillas north of Mexico City, because a worker there died of covid 19.

Those plants shut because an employee died, but they would also have had to shut if an employee tested positive.

TheElementsOfMedical · 08/05/2020 07:35

@Peregrina @Emilyontmoor What do the Malay Chinese community speak? I studied with some years ago, and I know that they said that Chinese people used to mock them for their expressions and accents. Not real Chinese.

Did somebody call? Grin Get ready for a LONG derail - feel free to scroll past Grin

The historic Chinese diaspora are very complicated in SE Asia. There were multiple waves of migration from China to SE Asia for differing purposes, from different Chinese provinces and they acted in varying ways when they arrived.

The dialects and languages spoken in parts of the Malay Peninsula reflect the complicated history.

Chinese migrants from later periods (say 19th - early 20th century) were often "shipped in" as labourers for farming, tin-mining, and rubber-tapping. Many came from villages in Fujian and Guangdong, bringing their local gang disputes with them to Malaya which helped to decide where each group would settle. Therefore (roughly speaking) in northern parts of the Peninsula, the majority of settlers were from Fujian so Hokkien (as it is called in SE Asia) became the main dialect for everybody. In the middle part of the Peninsula, the majority of settlers came from Guangdong and so Cantonese is the main dialect. In the southern part of the Peninsula, a different group of Hokkien-speakers settled. Obviously people came from other parts of China with their own dialects, just that they would also have to learn the majority local one in order to get on with work/shopping/socialising.

The Nyonya (or Peranakan Chinese) are considered the "oldest" arrivals in SE Asia - they came for trade or politics in relatively small numbers as early as the 15th century onwards, and initially intermarried with local Malay gentry. For obvious reasons often they were wealthier, more educated and privileged than the later waves of labour migration - they were able to take on administrative roles, etc. Very approximately, the Nyonya population is based around historic trading ports - usually considered to be the British Crown Colonies of Penang, Malacca and Singapore. Nyonya people speak: their ancestral dialect of Chinese, the majority local dialect of the area, and (reflecting their "standing" in colonial society) English and Malay. Penang and Singapore Nyonyas tend to speak fluent English as their additional language. Malacca Nyonyas tend to speak Malay as their first language, with Chinese dialect as the secondary language.

Because the Chinese migrants were either uneducated recent-ish labourers from poor background, or had been "away" from China and immersed in SE Asian culture for centuries, all these groups would have lost fluency and vocabulary, and developed a local SE Asian set of accents and unique way of speaking incorporating the background soup of other languages spoken around them. So yes, a bit of a pidgin. In fact, several pidgins developed with different language bases.

It wasn't until post-independence in the mid-20th century when SE Asian countries started looking East instead of West that up-to-date "proper" Chinese language (i.e. Mandarin) education became really popular and widespread among the [ethnic Chinese] general population. For example, Singapore made a massive push, making Mandarin Chinese compulsory in education, plus a huge public information campaign with the slogan "Speak Chinese, It Helps." Singapore being so influential, Mandarin soon also became the majority dialect spoken in the southern part of the Peninsula.

Now ask me what I speak if you want another LONG read Grin

KonTikki · 08/05/2020 08:09

The Lockdown will crumble today and tomorrow; VE day Bank Holiday, warm weather. Then start reinstating itself from Sunday / Monday onwards as we enter a much cooler week.
Also, don't honestly think the great British public really do want to go back to work just yet.

Peregrina · 08/05/2020 08:41

A big Union Jack is now flying from the house opposite.
But at the same time, the clapping for the NHS barely happened last night, although about four streets away some people seemed to be having a sort of party with people dotted around the road, and you could hear their sound system belting out, although that stopped before 8:30.

Peregrina · 08/05/2020 08:46

Reflecting upon the flags flying etc. - it has made me think how difficult it can be to stand out from the crowd - therefore, how difficult it might have been to stand out against Nazi Germany at the time.

I do wonder if those enthusiastically supporting VE day have paused to think about how the draconian restrictions on our freedom with lockdown have been passed with little Parliamentary scrutiny and can begin to make connections. My DH used to get fed up with me saying that we were in danger of going down the slippery slope as the Germans did in the late 1920s and he said oh no, can't happen here, but now he realises that it could.

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