Westministenders: Peak something

[BigChocFrenzy]

Westministenders: Peak something

The story so far

COVID has changed the world for the next few years, like a slowly exploding nuke:

• killed well over 100,000 people
• made many people afraid to leave their home
• caused a Global Depression

Countries locked down because they needed the extra time to

Raise the Line while Flattening the Curve:

1. Flatten the curve of the numbers needing healthcare to a level the system can manage

2. Raise the capacity of their health services and public health systems - their testing and tracking process

Also, scientists desperately needed time to find out more about COVID:
how to avoid it, how to treat it

What happens next ?

Research teams around the world are working to produce a vaccine,
will become hopefully available within the next couple of years

In the meantime, treatment procedures are being developed to better treat COVID sufferers.

Also in the meantime, countries will need to gradually exit lockdown to rescue their economies from complete catastrophe.

Timing & measures for each country will be dependent on:

Death rate after peak,
health service capacity,
testing & tracing capacity etc

....and also what their govt and public deem an "acceptable" level of extra deaths & serious illness.

Possibly some countries will need to cycle in and out of lockdown,
whereas others will be able to accept the death toll with lesser social distancing measures.

The first few countries are already relaxing lockdown,
so the UK will watch, wait and hopefully learn what works and what doesn't

..... then copy these the correct way round

I noticed this too. I hate feeling like I need to question everything I read. It is exhausting.

You say that like it’s a new thing.

It could take Boris 1-2 months to recover. It can take 6 months to recover from pneumonia for example.

All of which is slightly irrelevant since he's slated to take paternity leave anyway.

So the continued Keystone Cops performance from the government is even more inexcusable - what were they going to do then anyway ?

I’m not convinced even Boris would take paternity leave. He might get put on gardening leave if he doesn’t recover though.

I had to go to work this morning and my route took me to a part of the coast with a VERY elderly population.
Beautiful clear air, very little traffic and LOTS of residents out walking.
No evidence of tourists. I did not stop for a walk as its their space.

The councils are REALLY struggling because car parks that make millions of pounds a year are closed .....

Poulet
My reading of that article is that the child in question tested positive for cold, flu and CV19 at the same time, but all very mildly, which was probably why he carried on with his activities.
The 3 ski schools thing sounds odd but if it was in the Feb half-term they are often booked up so he may have taken a session (hour/half-day/day) at several, depending on availability of classes at his level.

Sorry DGR I meant Auld of course!
Mrslaughan I will ask her about that! I suspect that varies from practice to practice though?

I found this on fb, no idea if it is genuine but it does suggest Mr Hancock has a conflict of interest re PPE. It's a PDF of a "Letter of Entrustment" so have had to screen shot each page (sorry if they are in the wrong order).

And the rest. What do you all think?

I know there are some very sharp thinkers on this thread (more than in government) so here's something to ponder:

jvalue.co.uk/papers/J-value-assessment-of-combating-Covid-19.pdf

Excerpt:

Paper for Nanotechnology Perceptions. Accepted Manuscript 6 The value of risk-aversion for developed countries is found to be 0.91, while the social discount rate, *r, should be taken11 as the rate of growth of GDP per head, found to be 2.03% per annum for the UK for the period 1961 to 2013.13 The UK GDP per head14 in 2019 is G = £33,141, while, from the latest ONS life tables (for 2016 – 2018), 141.8X. years.15 Inserting these figures into equation (C.3) gives the best current estimate of the value of a life year in the UK as: 1248£,209V (7) This implies that the Government and commercial organisations in the UK would be justified in spending up to just under a quarter of a million pounds on a scheme that would extend by one year the life expectancy of a citizen in the group to be protected

You say that like it’s a new thing.

No, not a new thing, but with events moving at pace, normal everyday stuff (eg food shopping, prescriptions) taking up more headspace and juggling home schooling with home working, more tiring and vexing than normal.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/government-shelves-priti-patel-s-immigration-bill-house-of-commons-1-6616651

A bit of good news.

I hope that all this love for key workers is changing the way people see immigration. I may be over optimistic, but its a start.

It would be good to see Johnson sack Priti Patel too, but I don't suppose that will happen. But we have to remember that Johnson wants to stay in office and since he knows the NHS has been the winner in this, with BAME health care staff dying, he might just risk defying his right wingers.

we have to remember that Johnson wants to stay in office

That might not be his decision anymore. He is an expectant father who has just recovered from a possibly life-changing illness being expected to take on possibly the hardest role in UK politics for over a century. Quite simply he may simply not be able to do it.

And that's before you consider that when he goes into that role, he's not surrounded by colleagues who wish him and the country the best, but a bunch of modern Tories instead.

And the Tories do enjoy a good bloodletting, although it might be a little too soon?

And the Tories do enjoy a good bloodletting, although it might be a little too soon?

Spin can only take you so far ... the fact the press have suddenly woken up and are asking questions they're not supposed to, and the incompetence of the government in being rumbled so quickly at trying to overspin it (which has signalled that the media are on the right track) might lead to a view that dumping Boris and the blame under cloak of health concerns is an opportunity simply too good to miss.

Obviously the incumbent - should they ooze from the same culture - will be tarred with the same brush of uselessness. But it seems the UK would be disappointed if it were to be any other way.

I hope that all this love for key workers is changing the way people see immigration. I may be over optimistic, but its a start.

Though if the offer is, "Come over here, work for us, never go home again because you'll be willfully killing everyone you care for if you travel," people may find that fewer useful people are interested in leaving home to come here in the first place.

I hope that all this love for key workers is changing the way people see immigration. I may be over optimistic, but its a start.

Depending on how badly hit the countries we usually steal receive immigrants from, it might become a little bit "bad form" to leave them, which could also affect peoples decisions to come here if they plan on returning at some point.

yoikes very sorry 💐

Aborea also very sorry💐

Wow

Dr Rachael Clarke on Sky right now absolutely disembowelling the govt. over their culpability and responsibility for over a hundred clincians dead because of inadequate PPE. The lack of stockpiles was either lazy criminal negligence or else it was a deliberate policy driven by austerity cuts, and still no apology.

I'm looking forward to Starmer prosecuting poor old Rabb tomorrow.

I'm looking forward to Starmer prosecuting poor old Rabb tomorrow

You seriously think that will happen ? I bet "the new way of working" will make damn sure no one gets to hear or see that.

Well seems like the Turkish consignment of ppe still not in transit to dear ole blighty! Apparently the people they were supposed to get stuff off in turkey haven't turned up with goods. Apparently nothing to do with Turkish government not letting it out of the country. The manufacturer hasn't turned up with it. Have we been scammed(again)?

Also on Sky: The senior Mandarin at the FCO tells the select ctee that the decision not to participate in the EU ventilator scheme was a deliberate strategic choice, no missed meetings or lost emails, govt were fully briefed, but decided that "We have left the EU" trumps everything.

That is actual "Brexit, Do or Die" made flesh.

Starmer has said that Rayner will face Raab.
Shame

And on the other side of the pond ....

The problem with this is BJ will pull a sickie for as long as he can, then it's paternity leave then look, it's summer recess!

Well seems like the Turkish consignment of ppe still not in transit to dear ole blighty! Apparently the people they were supposed to get stuff off in turkey haven't turned up with goods.

It's starting to sound more like a drug deal than international trade ...