Westminstenders: A test of logistic planning

[RedToothBrush]

We are witnessing a demonstration in Government crisis management.

For the past week journalists have asked the same questions and politicians have said they've already done it / are doing it in the near future. But as time wears on, the inability to produce the answers or demonstrate results is proving illusive.

This will have consequences.

It is a demonstration in how planning has proved to be lacking in certain areas.

With Brexit in mind, the lack of vision, coordination with business and wider capability and capacity this does not bode well.

Its a massive, massive family

Oh I know, but still ...

Growing up, for some reason, JFK was put on such a pedestal. As a geeky nerdy type I was fascinated by the Apollo and space programmes, and obviously he is key to that. Plus his knack of snappy soundbite speeches. I know all heroes have feet of clay, but John and Robert seemed the straightest you'd possibly get in politics of the time. Especially considering their scumbag dad.

better link .... and its not even a complete list of the clan !
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kennedy_family

(goes off to turn up "Sympathy for the Devil" and "Gimme Shelter" for good measure. Back in 15 ...)

And of course the Kennedys have the money to indulge in riskier activities - flying private planes, skiing, taking drugs etc. Sounds as if the latest one went out in a canoe with her son to retrieve a ball and then got swept out to sea. So maybe a different attitude to risk as well?

ListeningQuietly

Interesting thought, thank you. Yes, Sunak has a PM in waiting air about him. (ditto Cuomo in New York seems more Presidential than Trump)

LouiseCollins Britain is coping well? Really? Exceptionalism at its finest! Have you watched what is going on in the rest of the world??? All the countries like Taiwan, South Korea (who had to deal with a sect of christian zealots intent on infection) and Hong Kong who have implemented rigorous monitoring testing and quarantine processes, the gold standard learned from the SARS epidemic, and are on top of their outbreaks already.

Chinese doctors published the details of the infection rates, hospitalisation, ICU and ventilator rates in the lancet in mid January when those countries were already geared up. What did our government do? Perhaps it thought that the virus would respect western exceptionalism, instead it found rich pickings. Italy showed us how it would be. Still put its faith in British exceptionalism until science bought it up against reality.

I lived through the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. From the earliest days people wore masks, stayed home, observed social distancing, respected the testing and quarantine arrangements (tower blocks herded en masse into an old holiday camp). I said then it would be so much worse. I am not enjoying being proved right. Each time I go out for essential shopping I have to do a constant swerve because a significant minority (40%) just wonder along oblivious, I had to stop dog walking a while ago as runners and cyclists splitter past you within inches, some even spitting, spreading their viral load, putting their PB above everything. They closed Richmond Park to them so last weekend they made national TV crowding the towpath (that video was real that is how it was this weekend) mobile.twitter.com/julian5news/status/1246712647296462848?s=21 Our national response is scary.

The Crick had to initiate and implement its own testing for UCL hospitals because the government had not thought to enlist all the labs with PCR reading skills and resources to the supposed national effort to reach 100000 tests, something other countries did straight away, and there are 3500 environmental health officers in local government trained to do contact tracing who have gone unused.

It is government by three word slogan and British exceptionalism and not evidence based policy properly implemented. And it is killing people, and putting me and my family at risk.

Can one of you science/medical bods explain to me why antibiotics are being prescribed?
I just heard on the news that BJ, stable , doesn't have pneumonia(coughs), is on antibiotics.

His breathlessness and need for oxygen is purely down to the progression of the virus in the lungs?

I wouldn't ask, but a dear friend of mine spent 24 hours in the local emergency room, have had flu like symptoms and having difficulty breathing. She was told she had developed double pneumonia because of the flu and prescribed antibiotics (I don't believe she had an x-ray or CT) - was stabilised and sent home . A week (?) later she was rung and told that she had covid19......her test was positive. Which to me was unsurprising.

Anyway I just don't understand the prescription of antibiotics in cases where it is known patients have covid19.... or when they have classic symptoms. Is it insurance?worry of secondary infections?

Anyway I just don't understand the prescription of antibiotics in cases where it is known patients have covid19.... or when they have classic symptoms. Is it insurance?worry of secondary infections?

In one

Does this really win him votes in the USA ?

Yes, it probably does @BigChocFrenzy.
The USA has an even stronger belief in its own exceptionalism than the UK.
And America first is a popular slogan for a country where international travel is not the norm for many people.

mrslaughan possibly using antibiotics if unsure whether viral or bacterial pneumonia or if there's a risk of complications or because there's a concern that bacterial infections are being missed due to CV?

The USA has an even stronger belief in its own exceptionalism than the UK.

As a continent comprised of 50 states, the majority of which exceed the size of the British Isles considerably (as the WW2 US troops were told Britain is the size if Idaho with 1/96th the population), it has to be said that comparisons can only take you so far ...

Although that said, if you take it as a given the US would become the world superpower (for a while) then it's almost impossible to understand how Britain did .

Although the media is saying he doesn't have pneumonia - of any type - so why he needs antibiotics is a mystery. Perhaps the press reports are inaccurate... I believe nothing Downing St tells meat the moment.

Unless it's standard treatment in Covid 19 to give antibiotics to fight off anything else in the body so the body just has the virus to deal with.

Although the media is saying he doesn't have pneumonia - of any type - so why he needs antibiotics is a mystery.

It's not uncommon to give antibiotics prophylactically - DW has them each time she has a bladder botox treatment. They'd protect from a bacterial infection, which a patient is far more at risk of if they have just kicked a nasty virus like C-19.

Looking forward to today's press conference and any light that could be shed on Trumpy's wierd offer to make BJ a Guinea-Pig for his quack remedy in which he or those close to him presumably have a stake.

In particular Trumpy's claim to have spoken to 'all of the doctors' and the 'people' he has in the hospital.

WTFF?

My dad - qualified as a doctor in time to be called up as a surgeon lieutenant in the Navy in WW2 - used to refer to the times where antibiotics were routinely prescribed as “cover” for any surgical procedure, including dental procedures, as a prophylactic against infection. He always insisted on antibiotics after dental surgery, even though he routinely declined any form of anaesthetic. He could be a little strange.

Emily I don’t think I said Britain is “coping well”, feel free to correct me if you know differently, it’s been a loong thread this one! What I said was that “we” i.e. the people of Britain had shown more resilience than we have been allowed to be credited with before.

To support that I’d suggest that accepting the levels of temporary restrictions currently in place on our lives with very little protest, virtually nil violence as far as I am aware and people largely following what the govt is asking of them is good evidence of resilience. I suggest this is a good thing, perhaps you think differently?

I can’t comment as you clearly can on SARS. One thing I do note though is that Hong Kong is tiny when compared to the whole of the UK, and China is vastly larger. China also has a statist apparatus that is prepared to intervene in the lives of its citizens to a far greater extent than we would normally consider acceptable in the UK.

DW was plagued with UTIs as a result of the MS fucking up the bladder. So much so that doctors felt it was better she permanently took a low does of Trimethoprim to ward them off.

In the end things were resolved when DW was able to self catheterize at will and therefore ensure a completely empty bladder, which prevents UTIs. Good job too, as long term reliance on any medication is a pretty shit life. Especially antibiotics with their gut-cleansing propensity.

we” i.e. the people of Britain had shown more resilience than we have been allowed to be credited with before.

I actually think that UK citizens seem to be displaying less resilience than I would have expected.
There are endless threads on here about how people couldn't possibly cope without the parks being open, older people can't possibly manage without a daily trip to the shops and the Guardian is full is similar articles along with complaints about heavy handed policing.
The US state I live in shut it's parks and public areas even though gardens are much less common. I honestly thought that the USA would complain more due to its focus on personal freedom. But I have been surprised, people here really have sucked it up with much less complaint.
I think I had bought into the stuff upper lip myth much more than I realized and much more than is warranted.
A no deal Brexit isn't going to work well based on the last month.

Fascinator but alarming link from IHME posted by Innui on stats thread

It has projections until 1 August for total deaths and hospital / ICU capacities and notes the lockdown restrictions etc

covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom

In pre-review stage, so caution, but

it has UK with late peak and total deaths at 3 x Italy

I expected the UK might be somewhat worse than some countries, but not to this extent
I thought the USA would be the most likely to suffer badly, but for its population size it doesn't

UK 66,000 deaths total and peak on 17 April with nearly 3,000 deaths
Italy 20,000 and 27 March - passed

Also has
USA 81,000 and 16 April
France 15,000 and 5 April - passed
Spain 19,000 and 1 April - passed
Germany 9,000 and 19 April

BIG issue is that all those run out of ICI beds and sometimes also hospital bed capacity

• except Germany, which is projected to have a large spare capacity of everything

Well, let's see how real life compares with projection until 17 April

BCF I don't think France is out of ICU beds. They have been evacuating patients from the Paris region to the west of the country by helicopter and TGV. I think Normandy has taken 36, which suggests we still have capacity.

What is hopeful is the projection of new deaths tailing to almost zero by 1 June in all of Europe and the USA

• if that is true, then pressure to open schools and restart the economy over summer would likely be irresistable

The big unknown is what kind of later peaks & levels to expect after summer,
say between October - May 2021
and what kind of restrictions

Missclimpson Maybe France has created more ICU beds since the official figures were taken by the paper ?

covid19.healthdata.org/france

Germany has been taking critical patients from both France and Italy for some time
We were told they had no ICU beds available, but maybe it was creating a bit of space for possible new arrivals

Also, would you know if some harsh choices had already been made and some patients were not e.g. ventilated
as has reportedly happened in Italy ?

Apparently France now has 9000 ICU beds. I think Germany took patients from the Grand Est / Moselle region.