Westminstenders: All bets are off

[RedToothBrush]

We are seeking an extension. Apparently. No prizes for guessing why.

There is no news but COVID news. And that's all there will be for a long time.

Enjoy your stockpile and your sunny uplands it brought.

Keep safe.

We will end up normalizing death on a grand scale: Italy is saying someone is dying every 10 minutes over there and they are not yet at the peak.

Mistigri, I think there are lots of untested cases here. I've so many friends who have had symptoms recently but not bad enough to call 15. They know the GP can't do much and medical services are overwhelmed. Advice is to call emergency services (15) if symptoms worsen. They're waiting to see.
I've had a sore throat, aches in the chest and lower back, odd leg cramps and chronic headache for 4-5 days. I know there aren't enough tests and when I rang 15 last weekend about DS1's chest infection (which I'm wondering about, too) it took 15 mins for them to answer.
I don't want to be a drain on the system, so I'm staying totally confined and have imposed serious hygiene and distancing rules in the house.
I think they have no idea how many cases there are in France, are not testing and tracing, and it's going to blow up in a week.
I can imagine lots of deaths are going uncounted, too.

I was out today on the Glasgow Underground. I was very conscious of sitting apart from other people, checking that no-one was sneezing or coughing, giving people I walked past a wide berth, not touching my face.... I even went back into the house as I was leaving to get gloves, as I realised I didn't have any in my jacket. I washed my hands thoroughly at my destination - and washed them again when I got home.

Didn't see any face masks though.

It really does feel dystopian. It's going to be a tough few months.

Yup my 80 plus Mum in the depths of the rural north had a bug last week. Crashing headache, sore throat, cough, fever, only thing she didn’t have was breathing problems, surely not the red trouser 4 by 4 brigade sharing their viruses from the skiing holiday in Italy? We, and science, will never know because we stopped testing....

Auld, not testing is a real issue because if we knew who had had it, we'd know who could safely do public facing work.

That said, all the evidence is that even if you only test symptomatic people, the majority don't have it. My DS and DH had a virus recently: headache, tiredness, sore throat, no mucus (so not a typical cold). I am 100% sure it wasn't CV and thanks to paranoid hand washing and much wiping of kitchen and bathroom surfaces, I didn't get it.

Already ?
It's hardly bloody started

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/19/exclusive-london-hospital-trust-becomes-first-admit-turning/

A London hospital trust has become the first to admit it is turning away coronavirus patients,
as NHS chiefs warned services in the capital are on the brink of being overwhelmed.

Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust said it has transferred Covid-19 patients to neighbouring hospitals, as demand for lifesaving treatment surges.

A senior clinician at the trust revealed that at one stage on Tuesday only one patient had been admitted to intensive care out of an eligible group of five,

although the trust insists all who have required ventilation have so far received it.

Telegraph is normally close to BJ, so maybe this will increase his sense of urgency

• probably more than Whitty or Valance can

The curve for UK deaths is in the v early stages, but it seems steeper than Italy's at the corresponding point

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/19/coronavirus-deaths-rising-faster-uk-italy/?

It has now been two weeks since the first confirmed death from coronavirus in the UK

• and since then the number who have died has been rising at a faster rate than in Italy.

..... Deaths rising fastest in UK and Spain

Research indicating that blood type may matter, but this research has not yet been peer-reviewed

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/18/people-blood-type-may-greater-risk-coronavirus-say-scientists/?

Scientists looked at blood group patterns of more than 2,000 people who had been diagnosed with the virus and hospitalised.

They found that those with blood type A were more vulnerable to contracting the disease and tended to develop more severe symptoms,
while those with blood type O had a "significantly lower risk" of getting the disease.

If you genuinely believe that he’ll pay more attention to a telegraph
journo than the medical advisers then I can’t help you.

Yes, Newsnight saying problems in London too.

Telegraph represent his Tory base, whereas scientists are just experts and "we've had enough of experts"

He understands politics; he doesn't seem to understand science

Yes, I do think politics, particularly his own career, matter more to him than anything else
He is different to any other PM we have had, in that respect

WHY ?
Before asking car manufacturers, why didn't they order more kit from the specialists ?

Tom Clarkk@prospect*_clark

An established British ventilator manufacturer on Newsnight saying:

• no extra orders in yet

• if orders come now, they won’t arrive for quite a long while

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

Labour market data now in from the 🇺🇸 too.

Some 281,000 Americans filed first time applications for unemployment insurance last week^ -^ up 33% in 7 days.

On a % basis it’s one of the biggest spikes on record.
This data is before the widespread shutdowns in the hospitality sector.

More than 41,000 unemployment claims were filed in Illinois on Monday and Tuesday as restaurants and bars across the state closed to dine-in customers this week. As Crain’s Chicago Business reports, “That's nearly 10 times the level of the same week a year ago.” [Crain’s]s]*_

This needed to be done but it won't be pretty.

PMK (not been here for a while, namechanged meantime)

I feel scared. Called my Mother this am - she is convinced it is all 'germ warfare sent to us by South Korea' and is literally washing her pension money in bleachy water to 'kill the foreign germs'. Apart from that, it is business as usual for all 4 surviving grandparents. Inc the one on oxygen for compromised lung capacity, the two with beginnings of Dementia, and the one who had a stroke 2 years ago.
of them still smoke. 2 of them are 'very fond of afternoon tea at the garden center'. Sigh.

I think BJ has been very slow to act. Criminally slow, in fact.

PMK.

My suburb is under a shelter in place order as of 6 minutes ago thanks to three confirmed cases in the last two days.

Read any MN thread to see how confused peope are about what BJ / the govt is saying and how the confusion enables many to justify in their heads, continuing their entertainment and leisure activities

There is a huge educational value in closures - and I believe also a huge public health interest. Nothing focuses the mind like seeing your local business district turn into a ghost town overnight and getting instructions from your children's schools about doing schoolwork online.

I have doctor aquaintances in a few countries and have heard news from hospitals all over and who and how people are dying. People who die are not all being tested. Please please please take this seriously no matter what your age and health condition. do everything you can in your own circumstances to stay isolated til more is known about this virus.

Pmk

Well that's it then Parliament closing down on 31st March. So how is anyone going to take government to task after that then?

Nothing focuses the mind like seeing your local business district turn into a ghost town overnight and getting instructions from your children's schools about doing schoolwork online.

Absolutely. People are taking it really seriously here (mostly - though not the bloke who got stopped outdoors twice in two days and now risks a 15000€ fine and a year in prison!).

I'll probably go for a walk in a bit and expect the streets to be empty.

Honestly I think London must be at the same stage as Paris which is now on day 5 of lockdown.

I am fairly sure I have it (but obviously, no test so I can't confirm it). Like everyone else, I am staying at home, treating with bed rest and liquids and isolating. We've been doing so since DS came home from school on Monday with a cough.

Replicate my circumstances by thousands. Assuming it does not get worse, my illness will never be picked up by the authorities and therefore never logged. It's concerning because I would have felt well enough to go to work earlier this week, when infectious. And people who have no choice on finances/work in an essential setting would have done so.

List of those who can use school childcare facilities

www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-maintaining-educational-provision/guidance-for-schools-colleges-and-local-authorities-on-maintaining-educational-provision

Assuming it does not get worse, my illness will never be picked up by the authorities and therefore never logged.

Eventually it will become possible or even routine to do serology testing to see who has antibodies.

Hope you get better soon and that no one in your family needs to go anywhere near a hospital.

It's worth remembering that even with the limited testing that is going on, many tests are negative. Other viruses are doing the rounds: as I said earlier my DS and then DH had one with many coronavirus symptoms (headache, fever, sore throat, but no drippy nose or mucus like a cold). However, it was just ordinary viral tonsillitis.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-they-call-it-the-apocalypse-inside-italys-hardest-hit-hospital-11960597

A lot of people who say they are essential just aren't THIS level of essential...

I was diagnosed with viral pneumonia last week (x-ray showed fluids in both lungs), had headaches, a temperature, couldn't go up the stairs or finish a sentence without getting out of breath, sweats, chills and the WORST exhaustion in my entire life. I never had any issues before (Not even a tooth cavity!).
I didn't get tested.
I really do not wish it on anyone, let alone anyone vulnerable.