Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

HenHarrier that’s very interesting and makes sense, except the glaring omission highlighted in point 11: BUT a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people.

If they really are adopting that strategy, why haven’t they done more to protect the vulnerable? Ban non-essential visiting of care homes, give stronger guidance for those groups to self-isolate now, close the bingo (etc.)?

That's interesting!
So dh is right. I wonder if ds1 did have covid-19 at xmas then? I doubt it tbh as his cough was productive, but he felt very ill :(
Ds2 seems fine if a bit snotty.

Just seen the catholic church may end celebrating mass.
It's got to happen hasn't it? Eventually?
Services coukd be live streamed?

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/varadkar-and-foster-to-discuss-all-of-ireland-coronavirus-approach

All Ireland COVID 19 response?!

hen That is an interesting read, but based totally on psychology and not biology.

What happens if immunity is not provoked by one exposure? What happens if the virus mutates (again)? What if immunity is short-lived? What if 95% infection is needed for herd immunity rather than 60%? What about low-paid care workers turning up to work when sick? What about reinfection?

Too slick by half. It's not a psychology lab experiment. The consequence of getting it wrong is many many deaths.

Another one: what are the effects of social isolation from their families on elderly people? We are facing not seeing our grandma potentially many months. Do we turn up anyway? Do we just not visit a 93 year old woman with dementia until a vaccine is found? Lonliness is deadly for the elderly.

That is an interesting read, but based totally on psychology and not biology.

Well, yes. That’s why the UK approach is so out of step with other countries. Lots of known unknowns plus all those lovely unknown unknowns.

New powers to detain victims, force schools to stay open (now sure how) and lower care standards for homes.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-emergency-laws-police-get-powers-to-detain-victims-b65fp7fvm

Lurker here.

My DH is the highest risk category - aged 74 with heart disease.

So we have begun to self isolate. He is staying in apart from taking the dog out on the South Downs away from everyone. Exercise is essential for both DH and dog who won’t “go” in the garden.

The family are keeping away. I’ve requested shopping to be left in the porch. The only chink in the armoury that I can work out is when we get petrol. We use the car to get to empty spaces for walking.

Any further ideas?

CV has clearly been circulating for a while. I had horrendous flu in late Jan and wonder if it was maybe not flu. We'll never know.

Quite a lot of my students were absent last week and in previous weeks lots had colds and coughs (45 per classroom). The French approach, at least on Wed evening when I did a "téléconsultation" with our GP because DS1 has a hacking cough, was still that if you don't have a fever you don't have CV, so some of those absent students may have been cases, probably mild. (There again, it's cold/flu season anyway...).
DS1 is still coughing.

I was out in town briefly today to get contact lense solution before battening down the hatches.
Zero social distancing, apart from a Scottish lunatic called Auld.
People shaking hands and fistbumping.

Old people on benches in the sunshine, heads together, chatting.
I passed the baker's: doors you can't open without touching the handle; saw one person cover their hand with their sleeve before touching it, no one else bothered. 5 people crammed inside, incl 3 ladies about 65-70, one of whom had serious cancer a few years ago. They were in a huddle and her 2 companions were holding hands because one is a bit doddery.

DS2 said no one has mentioned anything about 1m distances; they were all lining up as usual in twos until yesterday when the schools closed. His teacher said they wouldn't be shut long because CV's like the flu.

When the peak comes in France, it's going to be really bad.

A very good friend told me today about her friend who caught it in the Alps in Feb. Under 50, very fit and healthy. He spent 2 very bad weeks, and has been slowly recovering since then but is still very unwell. The "recovered" figures probably include a range of scenarios, from "fully recovered" to "hasn't got full blown CV any more, but..."

Then there are the long term effects of CV on lungs, etc.
There were some cases in China where people presented with palpitations and tightness in the chest, not thinking they had CV. They had a form similar to the 2012 Mers outbreak which can cause lasting damage to the heart.
www.nature.com/articles/s41569-020-0360-5?proof=trueMay

The only chink in the armoury that I can work out is when we get petrol.

Self-service pumps and use the disposable gloves?

Blimey. The Telegraph.

Full Brexit must be delayed so we can focus on our fight against coronavirus

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/03/13/full-brexit-must-delayed-can-focus-fight-against-coronavirus/

Full Brexit must be delayed so we can focus on our fight against coronavirus

There is a word - it's not quite schadenfreude - for the slight feeling of anticipation as the Telegraph is roundly denounced as a Remoaner traitor rag, and suddenly realises they have lost control of the train they stole the handle from ...

No way to slow down ...

HenHarrier that thread is an interesting read. I do get what the UK government is trying to do but I think more and more people are going to panic and self isolate themselves because they don't want to pass the virus onto their cancer stricken parent or elderly grandparent.

Social distancing clearly comes naturally to Danes! People would not usually meet anyone outside of their home anywhere anyway, maybe except for students. I went shopping on friday and the shops were quieter then normal but they had all stuck up sign saying 'max 15 customers'. In practise, no one was counting, but there were not visibly more then 15 in any shop I looked in. The biggest change here is that normally people will have large groups round to their houses so it's normal to see many cars outside every say, 1 in 8 houses, over the weekend/holiday days. These gatherings are clearly very popular, but I have seen literally no extra cars anywhere in our village. Very very very little traffic. As in, nearly none at all. It's only saturday so maybe people will weaken over the next few days and the custom will 'recontinue'. But I get the impression people are taking their responsibility seriously. Kids are only playing in their own gardens etc. Group cycling is also popular on saturdays but again, no cyclists today.

Seems one shop has solved it's staff shortages ...

Social distancing clearly comes naturally to Danes!

Same here in Sweden. If they decide to impose social distancing nobody will notice the difference.

I wrote my thoughts on that psychology Twitter thread on one of the umpty-million Coronavirus threads...

Like I said, a field experiment in natural vaccination. And why aren’t the vulnerable being better protected? 1) lack of resources 2) lack of political will 3) not difficult to infer from BJ statement in speech, will reduce social care burden at a stroke.

So dh is right. I wonder if ds1 did have covid-19 at xmas then? I doubt it tbh as his cough was productive, but he felt very ill :(

Unless one of you was in Wuhan highly unlikely.

Scientists are starting to put together a timeline, with the help of genetic analysis, and it is looking like the first case in humans was in November but that case numbers were extremely small until late December.

My DD18 in Paris has a slight cough + cold symptoms, as do most of her friends, but she has been checking her temperature twice a day for 2 weeks now (thanks to her paranoid mother who saw this coming in January) - and it's normal. I think it's highly unlikely she has coronavirus. DS17 has also just had a head cold/minor tonsillitis which obviously isn't anything more serious.

By the way - a French doctor friend of mine says that there are 4 young people in intensive care in Toulouse. One common factor appears to be use of NSAIDs (ibuprofen etc) instead of paracetamol to control fever. Doctors here are recommending paracetamol as the first line treatment for coronavirus fever.

Interesting about the earlier circulation ideas .....
I had a cough before Christmas that exactly matches the symptom list of mild Covid .....

Whitewave
Your policy seems sane and you just have to stay clear of as many people as possible until it has "washed through" your area.

Mistigri
Some of my gym friends fly in and out of China regularly for work ... I can easily see how it would have been circulating worldwide among healthy business people for quite a while

Random question re testing
What if researchers went in to every school and tested one child from each year group.
No need to take their name (the Head could record it but not the researchers)
That sample set would rapidly show how many schools already have it on the basis that kids are superspreaders but may have no symptoms
and could then allow the NHS to gauge how best to protect the vulnerable.

could then allow the NHS to gauge how best to protect the vulnerable.

Who on earth thinks that's what the government wants ? You might want it. Mumsnet might want it. But neither are in charge right now. (Or indeed, ever).

I've thought for some time this Great British plan probably comes from PHE, not BJ or Cummings

This initially reassured me, but lately I've been remembering brilliant unorthodox ideas that occasionally come up in R&D - and how they sometimes flop rather than soar

This smells of a brilliant plan that Whitty / PHE have had on their bottom shelf for years,
that they couldn't resist trying at this once in a lifetime opportunity

The problem with relying on psychology is that it is much less exact than "proper" science
People are notoriously unpredictable, especially if a budding populist or two see their chance for glory

Other health authorities, govts and certainly the WHO would be aware of this alternative strategy,
but none so far have dared use it.