Westminstenders: Events...

[RedToothBrush]

Events have taken over. EU / UK negotiation have been put on ice due to covid-19.

The US has banned all travel from Europe - apart from to the uk and Ireland - in a manner which is highly political to drive wedges.

The effects of leaving the European Medicines Agency may be much more serious than anyone could have anticipated.

There's a oil price war going on between Saudi Arabia and Russia which has further driven market fears led by covid-19.

There the crisis in Turkey with Syrian refugees which is also distracting the EU.

We are facing lockdown and economic turmoil over the next weeks and months.

Johnson is having his leadership moment with deaths projected to possibly exceed UK WW2 deaths.

We are desperately trying to recruit negotiators as it's suddenly become apparent we don't have enough to carry out all the trade deals we want.

The civil service will be stretched to its limited by covid-19. Yet we also have Brexit to consider.

Where next? How bad are things going to get?

DGR
Who on earth thinks that's what the government wants ?
Oh bugger, I just realised .....
The Tory party gets more money from legacies than it does from membership fees ....
This is part of their plan to build up their financial reserves !!!!!

The only chink in the armoury that I can work out is when we get petrol.

I would go to a self pay service station. Take a wipe for the touch screen. You shouldn't need to get close to anyone else.

Now that many countries are banning travel to and from, is that likely to impact on food supply chain, in the way that no deal was considered likely to? (sorry, asking here due to reasoned level of debate)

"What if researchers went in to every school and tested one child from each year group."

Maybe, but could cause panic
Results leak, even the tests themselves would alarm some, because their school was / not chosen
Think of parents so sensitive they won't even let their DC be weighed; samples would be distorted by this as well

Emotions run high when it comes to kids and whatever calm & logic there are now could fly out the window
if say there were clusters in certain schools
or if the total % were anything but tiny

"The only chink in the armoury that I can work out is when we get petrol."

Another advantage of using only feet or bike

Now that many countries are banning travel to and from, is that likely to impact on food supply chain, in the way that no deal was considered likely to?
Unlikely because the food tends to come by truck around Europe and the drivers are quite happy to not deal with other people

"is that likely to impact on food supply chain,"

So far, noone is banning export or import of goods, other than face masks and other med supplies in shortage
No shortages of food expected atm in countries that grow for the UK market

All economies are being hit, so govts will try to keep international trade running smoothly,
to reduce damage to businesses

(If things get really bad, then imported goods could theoretically be delivered to ports and then put on British-reg lorres for further transport,
but this would be cumbersome and unlikely - and hauliers probably don't enough UK-reg vehicles.)

WHO questions UK response to coronavirus

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news?page=with:block-5e6c9e8a8f085c6327bbfcb8#block-5e6c9e8a8f085c6327bbfcb8

World Healthh^ Organization spokeswoman Margaret Harris has questioned the UK’s approach to developing “herd immunity” against Covid-19

Dr Harris told BBC Radio 4’s Today:

“We don’t know enough about the science of this virus, it hasn’t been in our population for long enough for us to know what it does in immunological terms.

“Every virus functions differently in your body and stimulates a different immunological profile.

We can talk theories, but at the moment we are really facing a situation where we have got to look at action.”

Deathrate now 21☹️

Thank you for replies. At least they have confirmed I’m on the right track.

My DH and I have to face this thing with the realisation, that should he get the virus, it is unlikely that he will get support.

It really is a matter of life and death.

Very weird and surreal.

Thank you LQ and BCF I appreciate your replies.

It's a sobering thought to be frightened to go out☹️

Also the poor bereaved families of those that have died of Covid cannot arrange a funeral yet as they will probably have to be tested and isolated.

Some of my gym friends fly in and out of China regularly for work ... I can easily see how it would have been circulating worldwide among healthy business people for quite a while

Same (half my team is in China) but it looks as if case numbers prior to late Dec were small. So while nothing is impossible, I'd say that it's unlikely that there were significant numbers of cases outside China last year.

For a start, it's highly infectious so clusters would have got started earlier! What we know of how the disease has circulated in for eg Washington state points to introduction from China in January.

Apparently this organisation is now providing weekly updates on COVID-19 as well as flu and other respiratory illnesses.
www.rcgp.org.uk/clinical-and-research/our-programmes/research-and-surveillance-centre.aspx

Alex Wickham @alexwickham
NEW: Britons should get ready for “changes to our way of life and what our country looks like”

— ministers say measures will be extended for months rather than weeks
— lasting from the end of March until at least the summer and “perhaps a lot longer”

Home-working will become the norm for millions of people for months

— likely that many companies will extend home-working until June at least
— Govt thinks it is difficult to see how football fans will be able to return to stadiums in April and May

Foreign travel will become extremely difficult from next month, senior ministers believe

— stricter FCO advice
— other nations imposing blanket, unpredictable restrictions
— contingency plans for insurance industry as 100,000s face cancelled holidays

No10 internally scathing at Trump response / travel ban

— they think it is irresponsible and based on anti-immigrant politics rather than science, since virus is already widespread through US
— say UK strategy is far more similar to Germany than America

Ministers urging Boris Johnson to pass laws to radically extend the government’s emergency powers beyond the 30 day time-limit

Civil Contingencies Act limits suspension of rule of law to 30 days

Ministers worried Commons could shut for longer than that

One senior minister admitted that the prime minister could be forced to delay the Brexit transition period and said the UK was “almost certain” to enter recession

(yes this was relegated to bullet point four of the story)

www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/coronavirus-boris-johnson-tougher-restrictions
Britain’s Way Of Life Will Change For Months, Senior Ministers Have Warned As They Prepare Emergency Measures To Fight Coronavirus
The government will introduce more stringent measures following internal doubts over their "herd immunity" and "flatten the peak" strategies.

After my musings earlier this week on the number of fervent pro-government supporters surrounding Coronavirus, I'm wondering whether to revise my thoughts about a recent influx (yesterday-today) of possible astroturfers from the Nudge Unit. Either that or a few sock-puppeting NCers.

Posters showing up on existing threads or starting new ones, reciting particular memes about herd immunity/mildness of illness/urging MNers to "volunteer" for infection/appeals to patriotic stoicism and national pride in British boffins/carefully calibrated snubs at foreign overreaction.

Plus a second lot who show up all agreeing with each other, proudly declaring that it's a hoax/only flu/exaggerated/deliberate minimising of numbers of cases/deaths (clearly meant to wordcloud any low-information readers who don't understand exponential growth), there won't be x million British deaths despite no action because there were only 3000 Chinese deaths (clearly meant to wordcloud any low-information readers who somehow missed the memo about China's massive control effort).

It's fascinating yet disturbing.

I am just catching up (not quite there yet)

Red - thanks for your thread earlier about tribes. I have been incredibly anxious today , but that made me feel better about my perceived feelings over the government not doing enough. Boris playing on and encouraging division in society buying him on the arse.

I definitely think it was around pre-Xmas - in Asia anyway. DH boss wife - early 50's good health ended up in ICU in Singapore with what was described as almost certainly a virus, but un-identified. Viral pneumonia very very sick. All the symptoms of Covid 19 , just did have a name.

Self isolation - my nephew is supposedly in self isolation , they do have a big house - but in practice I am not sure how it protects the population, given my sister is still popping out to do shopping. As his symptoms have developed I would say there is a v v strong chance if is Covid 19 - but he could go back to school on Monday given that that is 7 days after the onset of symptoms. He hasn't been tested. He won't be back at school as he is too sick. But I am not sure the isolation for 7 days will be really effective

Just to add the whole Herd Immunity things seems like a very high risk strategy - everything I am reading from biological scientists is saying that this is unlikely because of the mutation rate of viruses.

Sos- I think schools will close very shortly. My sons school is preparing them for it emotionally (so it's not a surprise and also making it clear it's not a holiday and work is expected) and in a physical sense of setting up further platforms to communicate work.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/disease-dodging-worried-wealthy-jet-off-to-disaster-bunkers

Super-rich jet off to disaster bunkers amid coronavirus outbreak

‘Self isolate’ for some of world’s richest means Covid-19 tests abroad, personal medics and subterranean hideouts

Peter Foster has just posted these stats in Italy. As someone has asked, is the death rate for the over 70s because of triage (presumably, yes).

That didn't take long, to give up on his golf resorts:

Sky News Breakingg@SkyNewsBreak*

Reuters news agency reports
the U.S. is due to extend Europe travel restrictions to the UK and Ireland from Monday night
citing U.S and airline officials

Reports are that only 2 people under 50 have died in Italy

Ah, can see your picture now, which agrees

The Tory party gets more money from legacies than it does from membership fees ....

Saw a suggestion that Boris should come up with a clear plan on how he'd be replaced if he were to become incapacitated, since a Tory party leadership election might not be practical, and unlike the US, we don't have a rigid constitution in place to deal with such matters (since we discovered the Queen isn't really a head of state anymore).

Do we still have a deputy PM ?