Westministenders: Crisis, which crisis ?

[BigChocFrenzy]

Main crises facing the government:

. Negotiating a Brexit deal with the EU
. Coronoavirus
. Floods
. Allegations of some ministers - and Cummings - bullying civil servants
. More trouble threatened from Turkey / Syria

Unfortunately with all these parallel crises, we have a workshy lying arse as PM
and the worst collection yet of incompetents in Cabinet
who seem to have decided on a strategy of bullying their civil servants to avoid hearing any facts that don't fit with current Tory party ideology

Accept LQ - Covid is far more contagious than basic flu, no human has immunity to this virus - as it's not the mutated flu from last year....... it's a completely new virus.
No your attempts to minimise (out of concern for income?) are just burying your head in the sand.
On top of that - unofficial sources doubt the true fatal dates that both Iran and China are quoting.

Yes we need to practise good hygiene and be sensible - but don't minimise how serious this could be...... because that will in itself cause individuals to think "nothing to worry about" , and not practice very measures they need too.

And finally:

Hippos can run faster than humans on land, and swim faster than humans in water.

Which means the bicycle is your only chance of beating a hippo in a triathlon.

MrsLaughan
I guess yes, I do not want it to be bad as if it is as bad as people think it might be I take a 75% earnings hit this year
but I remain deeply cynical about the way the Government plan to use the Civil Contingencies Act to remove the rights of the British people
and when they will be returned

Basically, we don't know. That's the thing. And what upsets markets etc.

Sod the markets. I'm talking about paying utility bills.

Oh - I am deeply cynical, distressed and worried about where this government are heading..... I also get the concern over lack of earnings that is all very real.

But being a reasonable bad asthmatic - with a son who severely asthmatic (but well managed) and having a BIL and two nephews who are not only asthmatic but have a genetic condition (bodies ability to clear fluid from lungs compromised) that makes anything that effects their chest incredibly serious and potentially life threatening..... the way this virus operates makes it potentially deadly for them. On top of this we all live in a country which we know has a health system that won't cope.....
So when I see posts (not yours) about it just being like a cold and everyone is over-reacting- it pisses me off, and worries me. Because for them it maybe like a common cold - but to us it could be deadly in a way a common cold never would be.

Hippos can run faster than humans on land, and swim faster than humans in water.

Rule one in Africa (from Masai tracker).

It will outrun you. (Even snakes*).
It will outclimb you.
It will outswim you.

Humans - as an individual predator - are pretty pants. It's the teamwork that (literally) raises us above the beasts.

*Sadly lost to a house move one of my prize photos was me holding an 18ft python at a snake farm somewhere near Gedi.

Anyone who's short of hand sanitiser really needs their own still now ...

Covid19 has a higher mortality rate than good old traditional flu, but there is a lot more of the latter about and so it will kill more people but without the demented fuss.

Really mockers - I think you need to follow the science...... and the maths.

Covid19 has a higher mortality rate than good old traditional flu,

So excellent value for money then.

Expect 30,000 to 40,000 regular flu deaths worldwide this year.

South Korea currently has 2000 odd patients waiting for a hospital bed, and SK has about 3-4 times as many beds per capita as the U.K.

Anyone who isn't worried about this is not thinking about it right. It may not (depending on your age and health) be a huge personal risk. But at the population level it's fucking enormous, if only because of its potential to clog up the entire healthcare system.

Don't compare it with flu. You're talking about the excess mortality for flu, not the case fatality rate. Stop comparing apples and pears.

I saw a piece on the news, apparently a factory in Manchester that makes carex hand sanitizer is upping their production from 1,000 units a month to 1,000 units a day - should be back in stock soon.

Mistigri
I will compare it with flu because that is what the government advice poster states
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/869250/Coronavirus_advice_for_educational_settings_poster.pdf

And why would you now choose to believe anything this government tells you?

Ditto paragraph 5 here
www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-to-employers-and-businesses-about-covid-19/guidance-for-employers-and-businesses-on-covid-19
Corona viruses are not new
only this level of government hysteria is new

MrsL
I believe the civil servants who write the stuff
I do not believe the elected twerps

I will compare it with flu because that is what the government advice poster states

I have no issues with sensible comparisons with flu.

But comparing excess mortality due to flu with case fatalities due to coronavirus is just dumb as fuck. Sorry but it is. We have no idea what excess mortality from coronavirus is going to look like but it could dwarf the impact of flu if things go badly.

It seems to be less contagious than flu but has a higher CFR and obviously no vaccine and no immunity.

Interesting Misti - the stuff I am reading - from scientific sources is it's twice as contagious as flu?

But the thing is - we just don't know, China and Iran - numbers are not reliable. Here - not everyone who has symptoms is tested , (as in other countries) as there is just not the infrastructure and facilities to do this.

I know I keep banging on about this but the issue with this virus isn't really the overall death rate but what it does to hospital services. Flu hospitalisation rates are about 1-2%. For this coronavirus, about 5% of patients need intensive care (as many as half of these may die) and significant number of other patients need less intensive hospital care. Those sort of numbers quickly overwhelm a healthcare system unless you take drastic steps (temporary hospitals, as in Wuhan) or you ration care.

Mrslaughan, it's true that it's probably too early to say how contagious it is (and absence of immunity/vaccine makes direct comparison difficult).

For this coronavirus, about 5% of patients need intensive care
I've not seen that
was just reading about the Kirkland nursing home where 15% of over 80's have died
(but they have multiple prior instances of infection control failures there)

On the up side, with the Democrat race becoming a pretty straightforward Biden / Sanders then at least there is a chance that Trump will be given a scare ...

It is twice as contagious, with a death rate of 10-20 x higher than flu

Of course CVD, cancer etc kill hundreds of thousands per year in the UK
but you can't catch those from other people and it doesn't multiply

Most importantly COVID deaths are extra on top of the usual and a higher % of those who get it need critical care - which the NHS would struggle to provide if there are many cases.
I read a report from a Chinese hospital that said COVID patients needed twice as long on respirators as the average for other ailments

China didn't hammer its economy for fun; the rest of Europe is not cancelling trade fairs, flights etc for fun
Governments with access to the facts are taking some very costly measures
and we are probably heading for a global recession

Hell, I'm unhappy at how my brokerage accounts are doing, but minimising the crisis doesn't help and isn't convincing
If we don't get this under control within the next few months, then we'll all be losing a lot more money over the next years - and lives.

respirators ventilators