Westministenders: No Australia Don't Have A Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Since Friday, far from letting things calm down, Johnson has doubled down stating that if we can't have a Canada Deal (which the EU says wouldn't be equal because we are much closer than Canada geographically) we will go for an Australia Deal.

This is the latest rehash of a managed no deal package up as something else which the EU have already repeatedly said no to.

So we are on track for no deal.

At the same time Johnson has got very excited about American food and how its great. Almost as if he wants no deal wit the EU to force a shitty bad deal with the us through.

Johnson and his chronies have also been trying to undermine journalistic transparency by blocking access to the lobby to some media outlets in a move that makes us look like a tinpot dictatorship. Fortunately there was a mass walk out of journalists but it remains to be seen how long that can be maintained.

Far from being a clean slate to move forward from its already proving that nothing has changed and old divisions are as deep as ever, if not worse...

However the budget HAS to happen during the tax year ....

the last one was on 29th October 2018 (in the 2018/19 tax year)
there was no budget in 2019
the 2019/20 tax year ends on 5th April
if the budget is after March 11th it will be limited on the tax changes it can bring in (for purely logistical reasons)
this page en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_United_Kingdom
shows that budgets have sensibly moved away from the tax year end in recent years.
If Sunak does what Dom tells him in late March, he'll make lots of enemies elsewhere

the clock is ticking

The problem with the UK Budget already having been delayed to 11 March is that legally, the Scottish Parliament (and I think the other devolved administrations but I'm not sure) has to agree its budget by 11 March This is so that the Councils can then set their council tax bands.

So the delay has meant that the Scottish Government has had to put forward a "best guess" budget, without actually knowing its income because its budget is a function of what UK spending plans are/Barnet consequentials

The UK Government didn't apparently even realise the consequence of delaying its budget and had to have it pointed out to them

Prettybird
The English local authorities have to set their budgets and submit them to MHCLG by 28 Feb.
Its yet another reason why the move of the budget to the autumn was a REALLY GOOD IDEA
but basically if the Govt sticks to the Javid rules, Local Govt is nadgered
if the Govt does not stick to the Javid rules, the Lords will have great fun holding them to account

And in other news - it looks like Thornberry will fail tonight
so
do we have a sweepstake on the April result ?

Starmer : Rayner

I'm finding the gaslighting about the 40 hospitals / 50,000 nurses pretty distressing.

Parrots /puppets/stooges?

I commented to dh that BJ has already in theory at least increased his commitment re nursing, as he got his stooges Cabinet to parrot that he was going to recruit 50,000 new nurses. Whereas the pre-election "promise" was for 39,000 new nurses and to get 11,000 nurses to stay in the NHS.

The 11,000 were the ones projected to leave, at current rates of nurses leaving. They have left and are leaving because of his government. And nurses leaving on mass has been turned into a statistic of nurses we are gaining. And people believe it. It's so unbearable.

I wonder how all this will look from 2040.

So if there is a Magic Money Tree budget, loads of big infrastructure projects (possibly of dubious utility or sense) will go ahead, putting public money into the pockets of all the usual suspects, such as Tory party donors, for years and years as costs go up and deadlines slip...what a good way of robbing the less well off to benefit the rich. And the lawyers (no disrespect to actual ordinary legal people).

They will say whatever they in the budget. Whether it has any bearing on future reality...In this day and age of social media and technology nobody's interested in discovering if the government follow through. Voting for Brexit has proved that.

Getting the cabinet to chant: I imagine it reminds Johnson of happy days in the Bullingdon Club. Cummings might orchestrate more of that to keep his protege contented.

Sunak says he wants 5% cuts from all departments.

So is anyone going to listen to the monkey or will they wait for the organ-grinder?

Oh wise people, can I ask for your thoughts?
We know Johnson is more interested in the thrill of the chase and has no interest in details or seeing things through. Leopards don't change their spots, so my take is that he wants to "get Brexit done" in its entirety so he can go down in history and receive adulation from the true believers. The logical conclusion would then seem to be that he will take the easy course of No Deal at the end of the year (as anything else would require effort and thinking), take the glory ("I've carried out the will of the people"), and then swan off in the new year leaving somebody else to pick up the pieces and take the blame for the inevitable problems.
Am I being overly negative or have I missed something?

UK could face ECJ if it fails to implement Irish protocol

Also, we would likely get No Deal, from the EU - and others
because who would sign a trade deal with a country that is already in breach of another international deal

https://www.rte.ie/news/europe/2020/0214/1115354-ecj-jurisdiction/

The UK can be brought to the European Court of Justice if it fails to carry out checks and controls on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, EU sources have confirmed.

Amid emerging differences over how the Irish Protocol will operate, sources say
Article 12 of the Protocol gives the EU the power to take infringement proceedings against the UK through the ECJ.
....
The Protocol will be implemented by the Joint Committee, comprised of EU Commissioners on one side and British ministers on the other.
......
It’s understood the EU will operate from a baseline that every good will be subject in principle to checks and controls,
and the only role the Joint Committee will have is to decide where the tariff exemptions fall,
and that it has no discretion to whittle down the degree of control and the level of paperwork.
...
RTÉ News understands that if the UK does not put in place a checking regime
or if it fails to carry out the correct checks and controls
then the EU can take infringement action, potentially leading to the European Court of Justice.

Article 12 (4) of the Protocol states:
"In particular, the Court of Justice of the European Union shall have the jurisdiction provided for in the Treaties" in respect of how checks and controls are applied.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0213/1115168-eu-law-northern-ireland/

The EU will "monitor" the extent to which EU law continues to operate in Northern Ireland after the post-Brexit transition period concludes at the end of this year, ^
according to an internal EU document seen by RTÉ News.

The document envisages the creation of "IT systems and databases", which will keep track of goods moving to Northern Ireland from Great Britain.

The working paper was circulated by the European Commission to member states
as part of its ongoing preparations for the free trade negotiations with the UK, due to get under way at the beginning of March.

The document describes the Irish Protocol, agreed between the EU and UK, as

"a fully legally operative solution for Northern Ireland…to remain in the UK's customs territory"
but one in which Northern Ireland would "apply the [European] Union’s Customs Code (UCC), as well as checks and controls,
on all goods coming from third countries as well as from Great Britain…"

Cornwall The UK govt has already said it is looking for an Australia-type deal, in order to avoid Level Playing Field rules etc

However, as in this thread title, Australia has no FTA with the EU
and only very limited trade agreements with the EU

So, slightly better than WTO / No Deal, but totally inadequate for the UK.

However, if BJ reneges on the NI Protocol of the WA, then that would almost certainly mean the EU would not agree to any deal
There is so little time for negotiations, that any row / roadblock could mean the clock runs down and transition ends without a deal

No Deal is probably not his specific aim, but is a likely consequence of his political bluster

I fully expect the UK to flip the bird at the ECJ wrt NI border checks, consequences be damned.

CornwallLass

The word leaking out is that Javid was not pushed but thoughtlessly barged out of the way by people not looking where they are going. Never occured to them he might not lap it up.

Every indication that BJ is the political equivalent of the incontinent elephant in the circus parade. He will stomp and trumpet and make himself the centre of attention, then leave some other poor sod to clean the mess of his non-existent bridges, his police cuts, assorted children left all over the place. (At least Cameron took his to the pub in the first place.)

Meanwhile some very worrying briefings about leaving the ECHR and sorting out the liberal elite judges....

The UK has never in its history broken an international treaty
So this would be a first for BJ - and the UK

The consequences not just for relations with the EU, but with every other country in the world, would be serious

It is possible that BJ and Brandon Lewis are ignorant of the legal requirements in the NI Protocol

• which BJ signed and the HoC approved. BJ is lazy, Lewis is stupid and both are twisty weasels

Considering all BJ's bluster over the NI backstop - before he conceded what would in practice be a permanent NI frontstop -
it is quite possible he will back down in the end and do what he signed up to

If we get No Deal, it won't be a cunning plan by BJ / Cummings, no conspiracy but another cockup

will help their case at the Olympics in Japan, they are in for rather a shock I think.

If the Olympics go ahead.

I am assumed by the stories of how China will help us build HS2 quicker. Anyone who knows much about Chinese standards and quality will be worried.

Indeed this morning there are alledged pictures of the amazing hospital built in just 8 days on twitter this morning. There is water leaking upwards. I do stress that they aren't verified as being authentic but it is very believable

Re our 40 new hospitals again I do wonder what this might mean in the context of our emergency coronavirus isolation pods turning out to be rusty containers and dodgy portacabins.

I saw comment yesterday after Johnsons cabinet chanting that this leaves him with two routes only as PM. The first is to spend like there's no tomorrow which if he is determined with his Brexit plan is going to clash with reality of shrinking tax returns (he will have to raise taxes somewhere) or he goes full on tinpot. Which given the chanting seems the path of least resistance especially given his laziness and lack of regard and attention to detail. I find it hard to make a case for a third way.

Meanwhile some very worrying briefings about leaving the ECHR and sorting out the liberal elite judges....

Why is this such a surprise?

Meanwhile some very worrying briefings about leaving the ECHR and sorting out the liberal elite judges....

Why is this such a surprise?

Well, quite. This was always in the ERG's crosshairs and the new AG is the ex chair of the ERG if I'm not mistaken?