Westministenders: Canada Plus and the Transition Phase

[RedToothBrush]

As we approach the 31st January, we slowly tick towards exit and transition.

Things are not yet signed off though the No Deal planning has quietly been stood down with no press release and the government have said they won't talk about trade deals post 31st Jan because the public are bored of them and don't understand.

The new EU president has said that the UK doesn't have time to make a full deal with the EU before 31st December with a deadline which isn't flexible.

We still have no idea what the government plans are. We still have many EU citizens feeling very vulnerable.

Perhaps we should start talking about this rather than Royals for a couple of weeks...

YouGov @YouGov
YouGov's @chriscurtis94 takes a look at who Lab-Con switchers are, what they believe and why they jumped ship in today's @timesredbox

49% of this group say the main reason they switched their allegiance due to Brexit. While only 27% cited the leader...

...that's not to say that Lab-Con switchers like Jeremy Corbyn - they really, really don't. Just 5% hold a favourable view of the outgoing Labour leader, while 76% have a very unfavourable view.

By contrast, 81% have a favourable view of Boris Johnson.

74% of Lab-Con switchers say that Labour left them, not the other way around. The party "used to represent people like me, but no longer does".

46% say the Tories never used to represent people like them, but does so now.

RTB
That is an interesting analysis
BUT
as per the cud chewing several of us did last month, the numbers jumping all the way from Labour to the Tories were clearly incredibly small.

The big movements were
UKIP >> Tory
Labour >> Stay at home
Lib Dem >> the four winds

Is there a constituency location for those 1056 ?
Did they actually affect the result ?

Just that the issue identified last week about the changing age demographic in the "red wall" is surely much more significant ....

We shall see when the Labour and LibDem leadership results come out

Vital, could, ifs and maybe's

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vital-industries-to-benefit-from-post-brexit-britain?utmsource=d74fbeb0-78c2-447e-b2ac-fce8161d640d&utmmmedium=email&utmcampaign=govuk-notifications&utmmcontent=immediate

Ah, found you.
Tired, I stumbled into t'other place.
'Cor!', is all I will say...

Best stay here, pinboard.

Jason, that is a very scary page if you turn to it for an explanation, as promised, of "how" UK industry will benefit from Brexit. It's like an explanation of how to repair your car that just says "repairing your car is a really good idea."

I did start an experiment in the 1980s growing moss in the back windows of my car, but it didn't seem to add to the power

But surely it makes it more 'green' ?

RTB -- as others say, it's an interesting analysis.

I have said before, the statement 'Get Brexit Done' needs probing more. Is it,"get us out of the EU" or is it really, "shut up about Brexit and get on with fixing the real problems of the country"? I myself suspect that for many of these Labour to Tory switchers, it's the latter. Johnson has so far succeeded with the shut up bit, but hasn't begun to deliver on fixing the real problems. These admittedly will take time, but I would certainly expect to see progress by the end of the year. Real progress, not something agreed by May's Government.

Secondly, I would want to see a split in the YouGov research between male and female. Here I would expect the Labour no longer represents us, as being more of a male view as heavy industry has gone, but (older) men still hold the same attitudes, whereas Labour is now more likely to represent the predominantly women's work areas - public sector, retail, caring.

Did anyone else notice that in the link posted by Jason118 that Liz Truss is whittering on about FTA's with other countries whilst ...

Dr Laura Cohen MBE, Chief Executive, British Ceramic Confederation said:
We and our members want to help Government achieve their ambitious timescale for an UK-EU trade agreement by the end of the year, as 57% of our members’ exports are sent to the EU. We appreciate the opportunity to raise this and other important issues on trade with the Secretary of State.

I too have read Jason's link and feel despair. I used to live in N Staffs - er more than 45 years ago, but spanning the time before we joined the Common Market and afterwards. I can say that even then the 'Potbanks' were losing out to overseas competition from the Far East. Why? The usual stuff - lack of investment, poor management, inability to provide what the market wanted. It wasn't, to my knowledge, a strike prone industry, so industrial relations cannot be particularly held to blame.

I notice that Liz Truss is almost wetting herself with excitement about a US/UK Trade deal, but the industry spokespeople are more concerned about EU/UK trade deals - of which she makes not a mention.

Currently, the simple average US tariff on ceramic imports is 6.7%, but for ceramic tableware tariffs can go as high as 28%. Removing or lowering these tariffs would be a boost for the industry.

Yes, undoubtedly true, but a) see my paragraph above, and b) with an America first policy, is that likely to happen?

It beats me, why the sort of people who lament that the EU has grown too big and we don't have any clout with them and want out, are happy to throw in their lot with the equally big USA, but have no say in the Governance of the organisation.

Cross post with frumpety there. Like their "Public Sector bad, Private Sector good" mantra, it's now "EU bad, USA good".

I doubt very very much whether the USA would want to take those 57% of exports. They might want the high quality stuff, like Wedgwood, but that is now made in Indonesia.

It beats me, why the sort of people who lament that the EU has grown too big and we don't have any clout with them and want out, are happy to throw in their lot with the equally big USA, but have no say in the Governance of the organisation.

Is it because 'we' have been wrongly told that 'we' have no say in the EU ? That everyone else will be lining up to do amazing FTA's with us that benefit us far more than them ? because ;
A. we are very important
B. we think we are very important
C. we are pretty sure everyone else is convinced we are important
D. we must still be important because of The Empire
E. we are no longer important but hope that nobody notices this fact until the FTA's are agreed

F. The USA was once a Colony, if we cosy up to them, we will get them back.

Trump complains that there is a trade deficit with the UK (and EU).

He sees the new trade deal as an opportunity to address that.....

"the issue of brexit" covers a multitude of sins.

Also, initial polling after the GE gave exactly the opposite - it was the leadership of Labour that really mattered to former labour voters, this appeared to be backed up by labour activists on the doorstep.

Scarily, if it really is Brexit, then we are stuck with the tories for a decide or more.

I talked to a colleague this week about the Labour manifesto.
He'd voted Tory after latching onto the nationalising Rail promise

he'd missed the fact that its based on SNCF and Deutche Bahn
because Labour utterly failed to sell some of their top ideas as "tried and tested"
wazzocks

I am now crossing fingers and toes that those with a vote on the matter choose pragmatism over ideology

There was an article a while back noting that US trade tariffs have very little effect at the state level where you have 50 disparate economies to sell too.

ntbo, Trump wants to reduce the US trade deficit with the UK, not increase it

Even without his small fingers in the way, the USA has long had many NTBs (Non-Tariff Barriers) that UK companies will have to work hard to overcome

International Trade Barrier Index

Singapore is #1, no surprise, the ERG dream

The UK is doing well at #8, ahead of some E27 countries, behind a few others
BUT ...
the USA is at #54 !

So much for Tory admiration of the USA model of "free" trade
They have so many barriers, especially at state level.
Even between US states in some cases.

DGR
Drive from Massachusetts into New Hampshire and see border issues writ large

Vital, could, ifs and maybe's

What the actual fuck did I just read?

These people are such fucking amateurs. They think it's a game. It's not. They are playing with people's livelihoods and lives.

I hold them and all who voted for them in utter contempt.

DH is from the potteries.

I suppose the best that can be said is that they will get what they voted for.

Mistrigri, I can second both of your last posts, except the DH being from the Potteries. Mostly decent hard working folk, if they think Boris Johnson is interested in them, I am afraid I though, 'bloody fools'.

Now an old fashioned Tory like Michael Heseltine, would have tried to do something.

Collaboration and centralisation are rather different
as you well know

Precisely. The EU tends towards Centralisation and harmonisation not collaboration and co-operation.

The EU tends towards Centralisation and harmonisation not collaboration and co-operation.
Evidence please ?

Dear westmisterenders
on the "Arms" I've been accused of having a post about Corbyn/Neill which upset everybody
OK I drink a fair bit but that passed me by
anybody got a time stamp?

Listening, at a guess this is just someone flying a kite to telling porkies. Unless it's a weird stalky type who makes notes.