The Brexit Arms: Are We Nearly There Yet? 🇬🇧🚗↩️🇪🇺

[SingingLily]

No, not yet, but soon. Just 24 more sleeps until we legally leave the EU at 11pm on 31 January and finally enter the transition period after what seems like centuries of argument, dither and delay. We do so with hope, optimism and a determination to be a good friend and neighbour to the EU, but for now, no one said it better than Winston Churchill.

“This is not the end, this is not even the beginning of the end, this is just perhaps the end of the beginning.”

The Pub Rule is the same as it always was: all welcome but only if you leave goadery outside. The first drink is on the house.

Frumpety, once we legally leave the EU on 31 January 2020, we will no longer be subject to the Lisbon Treaty so how can Article 50 apply? It can only apply to member states of the EU. We won't be a member state anymore.

From 11pm on 31 January - providing Boris's WA bill is made law and providing the EU ratifies it - we will have a new timebound treaty that expires on 31 December 2020.

If the EU doesn't ratify it, we leave anyway.

Either way, the Lisbon Treaty no longer applies.

Morning, all,

Just 23 sleeps till Independence Day. The withdrawal agreement is in the second day of the committee stage and will continue to be debated tomorrow. Mark Francois is distraught that his Big Ben amendment was not selected but I wouldn’t put it past him to climb up the clock tower and grab the sally himself (look it up). In the meantime, Jezza will have his 13th last go today at holding the Prime Minister to account at PMQs, this providing a masterclass to Labour leader hopefuls on how to be an effective LOTO.

Due to a double delivery of eggs from Dungannon, this morning’s complimentary breakfast tray features scrambled eggs and toasted homemade bread. Please help yourselves.

Kettle’s on ☕️☕️☕️

Lurking on the corner managed a private lock in so glad to see breakfast

Morning all

No casualties reported as yet which is promising

If no casualties then Iran has achieved its primary aim (to save face) & de-escalation has become much more likely

Am at work so will miss PMQs 😟
Will catch up when I get home tonight
Hopefully Jezza will be as 'impressive' as he was yesterday.....

Have you seen how much compensation NI are demanding?

Good morning all.
I couldn’t resist the smell of your breakfast wafting into the snug where I’m warm and cosy. As you’ve tempted me out, a generous helping, especially of the eggs as they are from my little corner of the U.K.
The countdown is on. ⏰.
As always Dusty thanks for the memeories.

Morning all

Thanks for the new thread lily

If no casualties then Iran has achieved its primary aim (to save face) & de-escalation has become much more likely

I think so too Dusty they had to save face with a strike, I feel sure that most/all military personnel would have been moved out before Trump took action initially (and any remaining shortly after) Iran would have been aware that the sites would be empty before they launched their missiles. Sad that a civilian plane seems to have been caught up in it.

Hopefully, we will get a de-escalation now (except for the media of course!).

I will also miss PMQs today so will be catching up on that later.

Morning all.
Scrambled eggs are just the thing for my tonsillitis ridden teen. Her "helpful" big sister warned her to look out for sepsis and think carefully about the risks of antibiotic resistant gonorrhea. Her wee sister rushed off to look up the difference between bacteria and viruses.

"The UK has already ruled out extending the transition beyond the end of the year. However, the EU might well wait until after the formal deadline to ask for such an extension passes on 1st July before it seriously engages with the 31st December 2020 deadline for trade talks".

This is why Steven Barclay reiterated continuously yesterday that there will be no post 2020 extension. A hard deadline is the only way the EU will engage at all.

Really good concise round up of the likely issues and route map for trade talks here.

www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/01/stephen-booth-today-the-clock-starts-ticking-down-to-the-next-big-brexit-deadline.html

Have you seen how much compensation NI are demanding?

For the double egg delivery this morning? Don't be daft. They apologised to me and offered to take them back to NI but I said no worries, we'll use them up. And I paid for them, so we're straight.

They can't afford to lose a good customer like me but if they start that nonsense, I'll buy my eggs locally. See how they like that.

Honestly, some people.

Is it too early to make up a jug of Pimms?

Sorry. Stephen Barclay

"The UK has already ruled out extending the transition beyond the end of the year. However, the EU might well wait until after the formal deadline to ask for such an extension passes on 1st July before it seriously engages with the 31st December 2020 deadline for trade talks".

Superseded, howabout. That was Boris's original WA bill, the one where he had to incorporate all sorts of concessions to placate the Letwin/Grieve lot before the GE.

The WA Bill Mk II - the post GE one which had its own second reading on 19 December - strips out that clause and actively prevents any minister from seeking an extension beyond 31 December 2020.

I don't know why Stephen Booth refers to it.

Jezza is trying to reintroduce the extension clause as an amendment now that the new improved bill is in committee stage but for once, the parliamentary arithmetic is against him. That's what I was trying to explain to frumpety.

Here's the confirmation from the BBC re the removal of the extension clause.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50125338

Thanks Lily that makes sense in the context of the WAB.

I think the confusion may be that there are provisions within the WA Treaty with the EU allowing for an extension (about to go out or would check). While the UK legislation will now prohibit Boris asking for an extension it is argued he could either a) create legislation to alter this at a later date b) seek to use Executive powers in International Treaty negotiation to make a discretionary exception (more difficult as express Act instructing to the contrary)

Similarly the EU June deadline is not "real" either as they could alter it by agreement, as they did with the Art 50 extensions.

In fact other than Leaving under Art 50 on Jan 31, nothing in the WA or WAB is not subject to subsequent negotiation, no matter how much either side pretends otherwise. Sammy Wilson pointed out quite convincingly yesterday that unless Boris stands firm on possibility of "No Deal" the EU will continue to press for further concessions on things already "agreed" eg the divorce payment arrangements.

create legislation to alter this at a later date

Yes, it would require a separate bill.

seek to use Executive powers in International Treaty negotiation to make a discretionary exception (more difficult as express Act instructing to the contrary)

Would be subject to judicial review - potentially ultra vires as he would be acting in defiance of statutory law. The ERG would love the challenge.

In any case, the only WA treaty ratified by the EU was Theresa May's and although she signed it, it was never ratified in UK law so remains incomplete.

Hope your daughter feels better soon, btw.

The 23rd of June and the 31st of January were my much-loved grandparents' birthdays. I have no doubt they would've been enthusiastic Brexiteers

Mine definitely wouldn't have been.

Singing sorry I thought as we will still be in the transition period until the end of December , not a lot actually changes ?

frumpety not a lot changes in practical terms during the transition, assuming the WA is ratified by both sides. However in legal terms everything changes because we will have Left.

So eg no awkward situations where the EU has to pretend to include us in things, no UK MEPs, no interaction with any EU legislation, new or old, other than as agreed within the terms of the WA.

Of course it is also the case that rejoining would only be a cumbersome back of the VERY long queue situation if both sides chose to make it so. Politically it seems unlikely that either the EU or UK could unpick leaving
without an extreme show of bureaucratic nightmare though.

Thanks Lily. Scrambled eggs for lunch were just the ticket and she at least feels loved cos I bought her antiseptic strepsils and a lemon.

Well if the unpicking of decades of treaties/trade/legal connections can be undone currently, I'd think reconnecting them would be just as possible.

An interesting article on the so called Red Wall.

unherd.com/2020/01/can-the-tories-cling-on-to-the-red-wall/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3

Some snippets

"...not had a Conservative MP in decades, but probably should have, given their demography”. - in other words they are not as "naturally" Labour as portrayed

There are 63 of them but only 33 went Tory - that leaves 30 more "at risk" for Labour (definitely gone if Clive Lewis gets the Leadership given his positioning on Newsnight yesterday)

The Tories won these seats despite not having up to date data or an established ground campaign or strong branded local candidates. If they work on these they can consolidate further.

Lots of opportunities for further consolidation in Mayoral and Council elections.

Experience from Scotland is interesting in this context. Despite Scotland being majority Remain and Left of Centre in all constituencies the Conservatives held almost half of their 2017 gains. In contrast Labour lost all of theirs. The difference was that the Scottish Tories who held on had put in a lot of local effort. In contrast some of the Scottish Tory losers had been higher profile at WM and a couple didn't stand for re-election.

That's an interesting article, Howabout, and it ties in with the change in voting demographics. YouGov notes that the tipping point - the average age when voters flip from Labour to Conservative - has dropped from 47 to 39. In addition, the Conservatives captured 48% of the blue collar vote this time (up from 44%) while Labour's share dropped from 42% to 33%. This was something that Dusty pointed out about two weeks before the GE but it was pooh-poohed by the passing trade.

I wish Labour would hurry up and decide who and what it stands for. It is not the case that the message was not sufficiently explained. Focus groups carried out by Michael Ashcroft in the weeks before the election demonstrated that voters had got the message only too well and were laughing openly at the manifesto. These were people who had voted Labour in 2017.

Frumpety, exactly as Howabout says.

Pan2 Possible perhaps...probable, no.

Not really scary - it can be both possible AND probable, once the extent of the effect of brexit is worked through.

Hopefully not probable at all. Having just returned to the UK after 13 years in Belgium (which is very dysfunctional in its own inimitable fashion), and being a Leaver, I don't expect probable to be on the cards unless there is a sea change.

Had the EEC remained as just that, I might have voted to stay, but there is absolutely no need for the layers of supranational government, with all the cost that entails, on top of our own. Had there been a vote on Maastricht and Lisbon, I would have voted no in both instances.

"....once the extent of the effect of brexit is worked through".

I disagree. The greater the impact of Brexit either positively or negatively, the harder it would be for either side to admit blame for prior reluctance or failure. This makes it far less likely that there would be an impetus to facilitate rejoining from either side. Where would the EU be if countries could Leave and Rejoin all over the place on a whim?

Mind you .... my old boss is Belgian. He loved nothing more than a politically "impossible" bureaucratic nightmare. If you were minded to bore him with practical objections he used to smile winningly a la Barnier and restate his preferred outcome. Mostly his methods actually delivered results with minimal head scratching - and if they didn't he was very adept at "moving on".

So a while back we were discussing current Scottish Labour MPs in English constituencies. I mentioned Pat McFadden and forgot to mention Annelise Dodds.

However my very Favourite is Barry Gardiner. He is joining the Leadership race. - Len McClusky backing him reinforcing my hunch he would be by far the most likely to embrace Brexit warts and all. We could have the dream Scottish ticket of Barry and Ian Murray as his Deputy - wonder how the SNP would cope.