Westminstenders: Penny dropping time

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson already seems to be hinting at protections for workers rights and the environment that he promised are to be dropped.

Along with enshrining Brexit in law to the end of Dec 2020 thus creating another Brexit no deal date. This time without any safety net in parliament.

"won't Johnson be more liberal than he suggested" they cry

About that...

...It's not just the export of the wings. It's the import, export and re-import of the bits the wings are made of.

A significant proportion of my business concerns moving parts for the aerospace manufacturing industry, particularly in NW England and NE Wales. The physical import and exportation of parts isn't expected to be a particular problem.

For this industry it's the potential changes to trade policy, tariffs and NTBs that are the issue (along with exchange rates I assume), rather than the physical import and export of goods.

That isn't the same for all industries of course, as we've discussed ad nauseam.

Until the UK gets on the EU databases for 3rd countries, all UK exports to the EU of meat or meat products will stop dead

That database process usually takes 6 months+ and there may not be time next year to agree it

• if the EU is even prepared to do so within a bare bones trade deal.

It would be bitterly amusing if ongoing US developments resulted in a very different 2020+ US administration that suddenly loses all enthusiasm for Brexit or it's UK bestie.

imo, the Airbus wings are the most likely sector of high tech manufacturing exports that we'll be able to keep going

Because there is no obvious short term substitute for the EU,
they are very high value single set items with good profit margins
and they are nowhere near as affected by JIT as e.g. cars

So the EU will cooperate wrt agreements & import arrangements to keep them coming for as long as they can't source them elsewhere

That doesn't apply to most other manufacturing sectors
Or to farming / agriculture
Or to most services

The Brexiters economist Prof Minford said this kind of very hard Brexit would wipe out most Uk mass manufacturing and farming / agriculture,
but that the advantages of Brexit would make all this worthwhile. Somehow.

I have to say, in passing, that the UK supply-chain of SMEs and micro-businesses supplying the likes of Airbus is enormous. We get parts which travel between 5 or 6 different engineering companies in the course of a couple of weeks. Losing Airbus would mean a lot more than losing jobs in Chester Wales.

DG Any US administration would support a UK-USA FTA that is so advantageous to the USA,
especially their huge high tech multinationals, agribusiness and pharmaceutical sectors

They may never again be in such a strong negotiating position, compared to what will be a desperate and weakened UK
It would be a steal that no POTUS or Congress could responsibly refuse

The NI frontstop keeps the Irish American on side,
so no blocking there

What would change is the US attitude towards the EU, which would be much friendlier and cooperative
However, that is a separate issue from taking advantage of the UK's vulnerable position

Thanks BCF

I guess I just won't ever believe that even the current lot really think a Trump US FTA is in anyone's interests.

Also the workers' etc regulations that can then be avoided didn't restrict us from being the 5 the strongest economy. So actually is the benefit of avoiding those regs really as beneficial as the ERG lot believe- or is that fantasy too.

Once the bare bones goods deal - no services - is rushed through by 31 Dec 2020 that's the Tory job done. So voters can then go back to their habitual voting pattern.

It still seems to me that spinning a proposed longer transition would be winnable. This would be especially so with Cummings spin to manage expectations in the honeymoon of big majority.

Then they could justify a shocking extension to their 5 year term now. The ERG would try and flex their muscles- but they are weaker now and surely would buy in to justifying a longer term for themselves.

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Kier Starmer seems nice - I don't think he deserves ruining his life by dealing with any of this tbh.

Foreign manufacturers in the UK would keep going as long as possible, to get as much remaining value from their UK investments as possible,
probably just not retooling for the next model cycles

Not sure this is true. Was at a conference last week with people who are very closely involved with the auto industry. In a barebones FTA with no JIT and tariffs, you'd be looking at closures in 2021-2023 of plants making mass market (low margin) vehicles.

Losing any large business normally means putting many of its suppliers at risk too

Then there is all the discretionary spending by all those workers on buying bigger houses, home improvements, white goods, new cars, clothes, meals & coffees out / takeaways, hairdressers, nails ....

which would typically be cut back a lot and kill off many of those very small local service businesses

"Was at a conference last week with people who are very closely involved with the auto industry. In a barebones FTA with no JIT and tariffs, you'd be looking at closures in 2021-2023 of plants making mass market (low margin) vehicles."

Yep, in that post I included
"Unless of course adding warehouse / inventory costs to a formerly JIT business process is too expensive / not feasible"

Some manufacturing already have a sufficiently low profit margin that they can't absorb more costs
and some JIT production becomes ridiculously complex without um, the current JIT bit that is why they invested in the first place

I once worked in R&D for a major car producer that sold its low volume top of the range line at an actual loss per vehicle,
because customers wouldn't buy them at a higher price

• the business wonks assessed that keeping those customers on the mid-range mass-market cars that were profitable depended on keeping the loss-making flagship

Returning to it now being illegal to boycott Israeli goods and services, isn't that effectively removing any fiction that they need to be remotely competitive in any tendering process ? Even if their bid is 10x the lowest, you have to select it, as to not do so is "anti semitic" ?

A car model development cycle is typically about 4 years, with a much cheaper mid-cycle enhancement

So that's not many years for all models to come to the end of their life
of course some will already be halfway through or nearing the end

Meanwhile, in other news the Post Office is facing a criminal prosecution over it's beyond-belief incompetent handling of a shit IT system

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/12/18/post_office_trial_fujitsu_horizon_judgment/

Notice how people were sent to prison based on bogus "evidence" from the system. Bad luck them we "don't do" compensation for wrongful convictions anymore.

This is probably a high water mark for justice. I can't see such cases being allowed in future. Especially when the judges are all politically vetted beforehand.

No, DG I don't expect that would happen for extreme cases
There would only be disputes where prices / delivered goods & services are fairly close to competitors' bids

The major issues are:

1. another burden on UK business, not just exporters AND on councils

I've worked for a US company affected by this - any US company in the world has to obey the previous anti-boycott legislation which has swingeing penalties
It required annual training for everyone - even R&D - and constant vigilance to avoid any connections of any type to customers, tech institutes or suppliers involved in any way in the boycott
Lots of time and resources

2. the democratic deficit

central govt taking over yet more powers from democratically elected local govt
and rendering the opinions of local people worthless on what may be an important magtter of principle in some areas of the country

Even worse if the law extends to blocking individuals making their own private shopping decisions

above refers to anti-boycott law

[Sir] Deadwood watch ...

johnredwoodsdiary.com/2019/12/17/letter-to-the-chancellor-about-the-proposed-changes-to-ir35/

To be fair he is pressing Sajid to honour commitments given pre-election ...

Shocking miscarriages of justice there, DG with innocent plebs being thrown in jail to cover up fuckups by the high-ups

Then trying to get rid of a judge who dared apply the law

Would never have come to light without the brave reporting by Computer Weekly who decided to find the budget for this

More "business-friendly laws" could have both blocked the reporting, made businesses immune and changed the judge

Shocking miscarriages of justice there, DG with innocent plebs being thrown in jail to cover up fuckups by the high-ups

Well at least we don't need to worry about compensating them now. Phew !

JustAnother

I know that area well, having grown up not many miles away and yes, it's not a welsh speaking area. But they are not the moneyed retirees that are supposed to have tipped the balance to Leave. I suspect they are people who feel exactly like those in Bolsover and Blythe that have now gone Tory - decades of lack of investment going back way before Thatcher have made them absolutely fed up with things. But why they expect a Government led by a lying Bullingdon toff to do anything for them is beyond me.

Any comments on Corbyn throwing all of the Labour staffers under the bus while protecting Seamus Milne

Also note that the EU import tariff on manufacturing equipment is around 10%

so if there will be a hard border it makes sense for companies to extract their factory fittings from the UK before the end of 2020

Trying to pretend all the Brexit prep has been done ?
or the UK moving to a different negotiating process, since DexEU couldn't produce the expected unicorn ?

Lewis Goodall@lewisgoodall

NEW:
Govt confirms that the Dept for Exiting the EU (DexEU) will be wound up after January 31st.

No great surprise.
It's been a troubled department.
< record % of civil servants quit early >

Most in Whitehall think it was a disastrous move setting it up in the first place.

< putting fuckups like DD then Raab in charge may have been the main problem >

Still, if it is an attempt at signalling that Brexit "got done" and the govt is focussing on other things it is illusory.

Thousands and thousands of civil servants will still be working on Brexit across Whitehall, with thousands and thousands of hours of work to do.

Joe Owen@jl_owen

I think .... means that the Queen will have made more speeches in Parliament during 2019 than Jared O'Mara
😂🤦🏻‍♀️

👏🏼
(what about support from English councils & mayors ? London's Khan has been positive. Anyone else ?)

Welsh Government@WelshGovernment

We want everyone who has made Wales their home to know - you're welcome here

We’re providing additional support to help EU citizens living in Wales apply to the EU Settlement Scheme


https://gov.wales/preparing-wales/eu-citizens

We value your contribution & want you to stay.

#MigrantsDay

Without a Norway++ type deal, the 45% of exports to the EU Single Market will - under international trade law -
have to be treated like those from any other 3rd country with whom the EU doesn't have a Norway deal,

Sorry, I missed this BCF.

My point was that a lot of that 45% won't be disrupted at all, from a logistics point of view.

The aircraft wings are a perfect example. There are no extra 'checks' to be carried out at all. Conformity checks are ongoing as part of the manufacturing process. There are no delays in queues at the south coast. No paperwork likely to be incorrectly completed.

A huge proportion of our exports never have to touch the south coast ports, or get involved in clearance at a lorry-load basis. When you take into account bulk, container, non-urgent RoRo, air, and direct rail freight there's a huge amount that doesn't have to go through (or stop at) Dover - even if it currently goes through Dover for convenience.

There's still a huge amount that ideally will need to go through Dover though, as you know.