Westminstenders: Penny dropping time

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson already seems to be hinting at protections for workers rights and the environment that he promised are to be dropped.

Along with enshrining Brexit in law to the end of Dec 2020 thus creating another Brexit no deal date. This time without any safety net in parliament.

"won't Johnson be more liberal than he suggested" they cry

About that...

Giving, not going, damn it.

The ERG and much of the Tory party want only a bare bones tariffs & quotas trade deal,
which many in the EU think could be done in time for the heads of govt to approve something

The EU will then sit back and wait for the Uk govt to realise by EOY 2021 how inadequate those bones were in avoiding a deep recession

Adam Parsonss@adamparsons* (Sky)

...... Plenty in Brussels think it's perfectly possible to do a deal.

Not a comprehensive, bells and whistles deal, but something on trade and tariffs that can be updated later.

Various diplomats, and a few prime ministers, have told me this

Any purely domestic legislation can be repealed by the HoC, including any promises by BJ
However, he is unlikely to do so for as long as a bare bones trade deal is the aim

It's only international treaties that are binding in international courts and / or may have penalty clauses or damage awards if repealed

As I said on another thread, a bare bones deal could be done by the end of next year so that both sides can say they have adeal and there's nothing to stop both sides continuing to talk about side deals a la Switzerland (though the EU did say it didn't want another CH situation).

Personally I would have thought that it would be easier to extend transition without extending transition - ie say everything is the same legally until it is agreed otherwise and then spend years changing things for the sake of it, but I don't suppose Johnson will do that as it would be BRINO.

legislation to prevent an extension could easily be overturned by later legislation

With a big majority this is easily done. So why the big fanfare of ruling out an extended transition?

The voters are all honeymooned up having given the big majority so there's no need to suck up to them.

The ERG are emasculated so there's no need to suck up to them.

The EU have said trade deals take longer- so is it to pressurise them?

It just doesn't make tactical sense to pretend you only need 12 months.

Any politicians raison d'être is to be in power.When newly elected you want to exploit your honeymoon period. You want a maximum period in office.

Why not use the facts not to say this can be done quickly but to say the opposite. Say there's a lot of work now to sort out our ongoing relationships. With a big majority surely you would try extending the parliamentary fixed term beyond 2025 saying it is to see the job through.

Any other authoritarian regime would try and wangle a longer term surely not pretend it's a quick job.

That’s all very well until they start publishing the lists of “traitors” and people start attacking them.

Or imprisoning them - but I come from a family where people were prepared to go to prison for their beliefs. We have to stand up to be counted and we do have to be aware that this might well be costly.

lonely The govt don't want the kind of trade deal you are thinking about,
because it would stop their dream US FTA and a bonfire of regulations

They'll just grab whatever bare bones goods deal - no services - that can be rushed through by 31 Dec 2020

The proposed law to rule out transition is just to reassure the ERG and Tory party members that he really means this

Yes, we hope that wanting to hang onto those new Tory seats will cause a policy change

However, it is still probable that we will exit transition with the most bare bones tariffs & quotas deal,
then enter a long recession in 2021, with some businesses going bust and others moving abroad

At some stage, public pressure is likely to force the govt into talks for a more comprehensive trade deal,
but we don't know if that will take 6 months, a year or even until this govt is kicked out

The EU would definitely prefer an eventual Norway++ type deal, but in the meantime can live with a bare bones deal - until eonomic reality eventually strikes the UK.

This is because they have a big trade surplus on goods with the UK, but also a large services deficit
but mainly because they average about 10% of their exports to the UK vs 45% of UK exports to them
So much less of a hit

And of course they'll continue trading with the rest of the world as before
The UK won't

BigChoc - fully agree - you put it much better than I did.

At some stage, public pressure is likely to force the govt into talks for a more comprehensive trade deal,

I would hope so, but the public were easily misled this time with 'get Brexit Done' and 50,000 more nurses and 40 new hospitals.

This is why I personally, although I went on all the demos, don't want a 'People's vote'. The Referendum was won by lying and cheating, this election was won by lying and cheating, another Referendum would be won by lying and cheating.

At least this way, the excuse that Remainer MPs stifled democracy won't wash as easily.

The UK would struggle to source much of its EU exports from elsewhere,
especially fresh food, fruit & veg, JIT components and materials

In contrast, the EU can obtain most UK exports from within itself, or from those 70 countries with which they have an FTA

Probably the one UK export that they can't source elsewhere - in the short term - are the Airbus wings
and they certainly don't need those very often, just at intervals of months, unlike the requirements of e.g. a JIT car production line

That's why any bare bones deal is likely to leave the UK waving through most EU imports,
but the EU can impose its standard checks - NTBs (non-tariff barriers) - on non-EU goods

Can't help but feel BigChoc is correct.

We have nothing they might want and could not get elsewhere in the way of goods. Airbus wings are currently made only in NE Wales, but that will change. Tory Blue NE Wales, you voted for this.

And new Tory Blue NE England, keep your eyes on Nissan. You voted for this.

Foreign manufacturers in the UK would keep going as long as possible, to get as much remaining value from their UK investments as possible,
probably just not retooling for the next model cycles

And of course new investment, into new tech, being v much reduced
e.g. the new Tesla production already going to Germany instead of UK

So more a gradual shutdown of one model at a time over the next few years
and new models not being brought in

Unless of course adding warehouse / inventory costs to a formerly JIT business process is too expensive / not feasible

However, I'd expect the lower Sterling to help to some extent - depends on what % of components and materials they can't source from within the UK

Tory Blue NE Wales, you voted for this.

Sadly yes, and although they say that the Leave vote in Wales was tipped by the English retiree incomers, I don't think all that many retirees choose to live in the Broughton area.

Sunderland itself hung on to its Labour MPs, so maybe they are beginning to wake up to the reality?

It will be gradual. Airbus is a peculiar beast. It is one company but with plants in different countries that compete for contracts. Hawarden has cornered the market in wings at the expense of making anything else. It has the tools and the expertise. The former can be relocated, and many of the latter on higher salaries could also move.

The small wings fly out on a Beluga transport. The big ones go down the river on a barge to the big ferry which currently runs from Hamburg to Deeside and on to as near to Toulouse as it can get. The removal of the Welsh detour would speed this up no end. The addition of paperwork to the movement of part-finished goods will add time and money. The case for relocating is persuasive.

See also the LHD Minis, which will be made in Austria where they currently make the deisels which are going to stop production soon.

Elon Musk blames Brexit for decision to build new Tesla factory in Germany instead of UK

This is the kind of lost investment and falling behind in new tech that will increasingly happen

Not so obvious as closing down something that is already here and employing people,
but can mean the UK won't be able to build enough high tech mass manufacturing to stay in these sectors for the future

Once a country loses enough of its engineering base and pool of skilled workers, it becomes even more difficult to attract new advanced tech manufacturing,
e.g.
"Musk said another factor behind the decision to place it there was due to Germany’s engineering prowess — the country is home to two of the world’s largest carmakers, Volkswagenn and Daimlerr."

Also, having "certainty" about Brexit won't help, when the uncertainty putting off investment was whether the govt would do what BJ is currently planning

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/13/elon-musk-brexit-to-blame-for-building-tesla-gigafactory-in-germany.html

Teslaa CEO Elon Muskk has blamed Brexit as the reason why the firm chose Germanyy rather than Britainn as the country to launch its new Gigafactory.

I don't think all that many retirees choose to live in the Broughton area.

If youve ever visited Broughton its very very English, talk to anyone in a shop in Welsh and they look blank at you, its on the outskirts of Chester

I imagine there will be a last flourish of investment in the UK to squeeze the last value out of existing investments, before the tumbleweed. Possibly analogous to the last huge catches of cod off Newfoundland in the early 90s, before the fishing industry collapsed (and remains collapsed 25 years on).

Not sure how surprised I am about rise in vote share for Cons among 18-19 yr olds. As first time voters, I bet many of them are highly influenced by the voting intentions of their parents... You can't have it all ways. There was a lot of talk on here about 16 year olds getting the vote

The addition of paperwork to the movement of part-finished goods will add time and money.

I can't imagine it adding any measurable time or money in the case of Airbus wings. Nobody's going to be queuing up to hand paperwork over or turning up at Customs with the wrong paperwork.

A significant proportion (probably the majority) of exports from the UK will suffer no (logistical) disruption whatsoever, even in the case of the hardest Brexit. It's the exports which rely on being able to treat Dartford to Paris as having no more obstacles than Dartford to Manchester which are at risk.

we’ll hunt like a pack Tweet accompanied by a photo of middle aged blokes. That’s a wee bit disturbing.

...It's not just the export of the wings. It's the import, export and re-import of the bits the wings are made of.

"we’ll hunt like a pack" Tweet accompanied by a photo of middle aged blokes. That’s a wee bit disturbing.

If you imagine them patrolling the Atlantic looking for shipping, it rather takes the curse off

Hunt like a pack--the dead sheep similie comes to mind.

"A significant proportion (probably the majority) of exports from the UK will suffer no (logistical) disruption whatsoever, "

Without a Norway++ type deal, the 45% of exports to the EU Single Market will - under international trade law -
have to be treated like those from any other 3rd country with whom the EU doesn't have a Norway deal,

so they will face the full range of checks
and service exports will stop, except for those (mostly financial services) that the EU will need until it can take them all over internally

Around the world, it isn't tariffs that are the main block to countries trading freely;
it's all those NTBs (non-tariff barriers)

So Uk exports will face NTBs not just from those FTAs with 60-70 non-EU countries that won't roll over on the same terms,
but the 800 or so other trade arrangements, standards agreement, rules of origin agreements etc that the EU - but not the UK - has with the rest of the world

Most of these can be renegotiated in time, but would probably take decades - since the UK hasn't the negotiators to manage many in parallel -
and mostly on less advantageous terms than the EU managed with its economic superpower leverage