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Brexit

Westminstenders: Election Special 3

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/12/2019 09:43

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Peregrina · 14/12/2019 21:40

What would be needed for the UK to change to Proportional representation?

For the Tories to lose. So its receded into the distance for now.

But beginning to take comfort - the Tories haven't been 'lent' quite so many votes as they would like to think. It's very much that old Labour lost.

I have also read that donations to the food banks have increased substantially since the election. So some of us are still decent people who do believe that there is such a thing as society, and do believe that it's right to help one another.

chatongris · 14/12/2019 21:40

I fell for the "youthquake" and high turnout reports too.

I've had no time to reflect on this but it's quite possible that there was high turnout but that this simply meant labour votes piling up in constituencies they would win anyway.

I see no sign that Labour is going to learn from this, any more than they did from the 2017 election which many Labour activists actually seem to think they "won". But I might rejoin so as to vote in the leadership election. It's about time for some reverse entryism.

CendrillonSings · 14/12/2019 21:49

the Tories haven't been 'lent' quite so many votes as they would like to think.

The Conservative vote share is 43.6%, higher than Blair's 43.2% in 1997, and the highest total for any party since Thatcher's first victory with 43.9% in 1979... Smile

SwedishEdith · 14/12/2019 21:50

Chaminda Jayanetti
@cjayanetti
Labour leadership banter outcome is Rebecca Long-Bailey wins with tankie support and then she turns round and kicks them out.

twitter.com/cjayanetti/status/1205958186446065664?s=20

Her or Rayner could both be quite ruthless here. Thread mentions their lack of not being from the old factional machine. Interesting thought anyway.

mathanxiety · 14/12/2019 21:51

I think part of the success of the leave campaign was that it managed to paint us as servants and rule takers to Europe, rather than influential members of one of the most powerful groups in the world.

(And I know we have a horrific colonial past and were wankers for huge chunks of history. Not least to Ireland and Scotland. But people want to take pride in their country, not feel ashamed of it. And at the end of the day, it's people who chose who is in power.)

Ugh. I feel like I may have just made a populist argument. And not even one I fully agree with.

It's all in the presentation, isn't it? It doesn't have to be populism. It can be genuine pride in cultural shifts, or pride in developing from one type of economy to another. But older narratives have proven very strong in the UK. If the older narrative persists alongside the new version of 'what makes Britain Great' then you get a situation where there are buttons ripe for the pushing, as seen in the referendum and in this election.

Ireland managed to move from a strongly anti-British stance from 1920 to 1960 to 'partners in Europe'. Despite historic neutrality, Ireland's membership of the EU ties in with Robert Emmet's 1803 speech at the dock in which he hoped to see Ireland take her place among the nations of the earth. Historic ties to the US have never translated into becoming an American poodle (though the war on terror saw Ireland's airspace and airport facilities used for 'extraordinary rendition' purposes). Ireland takes pride in influencing American politics for its own purposes via voting blocs and congressional lobbying. Even though the influence of Catholicism is waning in Ireland, historically the RC church was an important link to a wider European and global civilisation that was not British. Irish people of an older generation tended to have a feeling of commonality with the Poles. Importantly, the history curriculum in Irish schools has for many years emphasised Ireland's place in wider European culture and history. As Irish law has come to reflect wider European humanist values, many have taken pride in that too, though it has been difficult for some to see a culture they identified strongly with transmuted into a more pan-European/Scandinavian version.

The UK always had a narrative in which a plucky little island built an empire and then went it alone against The Hun Parts I and II, in a Greeks/ Romans partnership with the US - this is the influential partnership that appeals in the UK. The anti-EU 'servants and rule takers' narrative was only successful because the EU message jarred so obviously in the minds of many with the imperial vestiges. I also suspect there are many who do not see the colonial past as problematic.

Interesting to ponder how the Reformation didn't produce much fraternal sentiment across northern Europe and into Britain.

Peregrina · 14/12/2019 21:55

Fuck it. People want Brexit done, so let them have it up to the teeth. They had all the facts, all the info and chose to believe a proven liar.

This was my initial thought but then thinking on about a friend who might well have voted Tory to 'get Brexit done':my argument will be, you chose to vote for a party which is led by a known liar and cheat. When he reneges on the promise of 50,000 more nurses or 20 new hospitals and you find that you or your family are suffering, remember that this is what you voted for, but then ask yourself what can you do to atone for this? How can you make good to counteract the harm you have unthinkingly unleashed? Playing on the fact that Johnson is a known liar, so why did you believe him, is I think, the important point.

Another died in the wool Tory that I know will just need some plain speaking. When she blabs about food bank users not being able to cook, she will get reminded that I support foodbanks because 'there but for the grace of God go I'. When she sounds off about young people wanting it all and grumbling about their gig economy jobs, I will remind her that her husband had a job with a jolly good pension, and why does she not want youngsters to be able to look forward to the same security when they are older?

TatianaLarina · 14/12/2019 21:57

The comment about Marina Wheeler passing as white is really not OK.

You seem to have misunderstood: it was a comment on Boris’s attitude to race. But from someone who thinks that Boris can’t be racist because one of his wives was mixed race - I don’t expect you to grasp racial nuance. Perhaps inverted commas would have helped.

The picaninies comment was satirising colonialism (and Tony Blair) but I agree it was stupid.

You mean that’s what he claimed after the fact. It was in fact, merely colonial:

It is said that the Queen has come to love the Commonwealth, partly because it supplies her with regular cheering crowds of flag-waving piccaninnies,"... later referring to African people as having ”watermelon smiles."

thecatfromjapan · 14/12/2019 22:01

I just don't see Momentum being kicked out.

In fact, this election result has (ironically!) left Labour more dependent on Momentum support.

TatianaLarina · 14/12/2019 22:04

As are more of BJ’s bon mots on Africa.

Westminstenders: Election Special 3
Westminstenders: Election Special 3
Westminstenders: Election Special 3
Peregrina · 14/12/2019 22:04

The Conservative vote share is 43.6%, higher than Blair's 43.2% in 1997, and the highest total for any party since Thatcher's first victory with 43.9% in 1979...

Thank you Cendrillon, you have illustrated my point beautifully. If you had come along to say that the Tories vote share was 50% or 60% then yes, the Tories would have been lent or won more votes. But you couldn't say that, could you, you must always have a little gloat. You really are a very sore winner.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 14/12/2019 22:05

Tatiana
Marina Wheeler who is half Indian and of Sikh heritage did not try to pass as white. There are plenty of images of her in traditional Indian clothing with Boris Johnson. He visited her family in India numerous times. There is no nuance in what you said.

HesterThrale · 14/12/2019 22:06

I could see the next election having shades of the 1945 one about it, if Labour get themselves together:

-Tories complete a major national event (ok Brexit’s not quite like the war) and think the electorate will gratefully vote them back in. But the voters, who will probably have had enough of hard times and misery by then, give a landslide win to another party that’s fresh, new and can create a fair country fit for everyone.

Well. You never know.

chomalungma · 14/12/2019 22:08

The Conservative vote share is 43.6%, higher than Blair's 43.2% in 1997, and the highest total for any party since Thatcher's first victory with 43.9% in 197

If people DON'T vote for one party, then the percentage share for the other parties will go up.

But yes - the vote share is higher.

How do the turnouts in this election compare to other elections?

chomalungma · 14/12/2019 22:11

But the voters, who will probably have had enough of hard times and misery by then, give a landslide win to another party that’s fresh, new and can create a fair country fit for everyone

Labour or the Lib Dems need to see what problems Brexit causes and think of some not too radical policies to overcome some of them, ensure that it's affordable and only targets those constituencies that matter in the election with simple soundbite slogans.

They need a leader that can't be targeted by the media and doesn't have a past that can be weaponised.

TatianaLarina · 14/12/2019 22:11

Marina Wheeler who is half Indian and of Sikh heritage did not try to pass as white.

Of course she didn’t try and ‘pass as white’. I’m saying that in Boris’ little right wing colonial mindset Marina does not look mixed race and therefore is acceptable to him and his rather silly family (I don’t include Jo or his mother), the Tory party and all its racist, nationalist followers. Marina is a friend of a friend and by all accounts very nice.

Peregrina · 14/12/2019 22:13

I can tell you about the Wantage, Oxford West and Abingdon and Henley turnouts: 74%, 77% and 77% - all pretty much the same as in 2017. The filthy weather didn't put anyone off.

Bolsover was 61% down from 63% in 2017.

chomalungma · 14/12/2019 22:16

Interesting on turnout.

1979: 76%
1983: 73%
1987: 75%
1992: 78%
1997: 71%
2001: 59% (Wow!)
2005: 62%
2010: 65%
2015: 66%
2017: 68%
2019: 67%

EU Referendum: 72%

Labour should be looking at ways of increasing the turnout at the next election.

Westminstenders: Election Special 3
Peregrina · 14/12/2019 22:18

But the voters, who will probably have had enough of hard times and misery by then, give a landslide win to another party that’s fresh, new and can create a fair country fit for everyone.

Yes, but I think more will be needed. While Churchill was busy on the World Stage, Attlee was quietly getting on with running the domestic agenda. The War time government produced some sterling pieces of work, the 1942 Beveridge Report which laid the foundation for the welfare state, and the 1944 Education Act. The latter I think could have been implemented better but in itself was a good piece of legislation.

chomalungma · 14/12/2019 22:22

This is also interesting.
The hexagon map.
The red wall is still there to a degree.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2019/results

Westminstenders: Election Special 3
ListeningQuietly · 14/12/2019 22:23

thecatfromjapan
Every party survives because of its funders
Corbyn is now toxic to the funders, as are Momentum
they will be gone by the time Brexit is done

sadly Brexit will be done
but Jeremy and Seamus wanted that all along so they will sleep well

chomalungma · 14/12/2019 22:24

And the changes that took place

Not as many in the North East as I thought.

Westminstenders: Election Special 3
mybrainhurtsalot · 14/12/2019 22:25

I joined Labour some weeks ago so I can vote for the next deputy. I did wonder at the time if I might also get a chance to vote for the next leader before too long.

Having spent the last few weeks canvassing nearly every day, I heard only positive stuff about Corbyn from the volunteers, but if Corbyn was brought up by the people who opened the door to us, it was invariably to say something negative.

The volunteers were a broad mix and very friendly/welcoming - I have no idea if they were affiliated with Momentum. I do wonder if party members with less complimentary views on Corbyn just keep quiet; I certainly did. It will be interesting to see what happens in the leadership elections.

You can pay monthly and standard membership is a bit over £4 a month. If you’re usually a Labour voter who feels dismayed by the Corbyn years, why not join to have a say in where the party goes next...

thecatfromjapan · 14/12/2019 22:32

That's a good point, Listening. I'd forgotten all about donors.

Peregrina · 14/12/2019 22:40

I also looked at Rotherham's results, since I lived there for a short while 45 years ago, at the time when we had two GEs:

*Sarah Champion (Lab) 14,736 (41.33%, -15.11%)
Gerri Hickton (C) 11,615 (32.58%, +6.17%)
Paul Hague (Brexit) 6,125 (17.18%)
Adam Carter (LD) 2,090 (5.86%, +1.24%)
Dennis Bannan (Yorkshire) 1,085 (3.04%, -0.73%)

Oct 1974 Election
Labour 25,874 64.6%
Conservative 8,840 22.1%
Liberal 5,350 13.4%

What interested me about the 1974 one is that Virginia Bottomley was a Liberal, and I that she is the one I will have voted for. I have no recollection of this. She later became a Tory.

I think this is quite a good illustration of the Labour vote collapsing, more than anything else. If you look at the Tory landslide year 1979 Labour got 26580, and the Tory got 13145 - which is still more than they managed to do this year.

CendrillonSings · 14/12/2019 22:44

But you couldn't say that, could you, you must always have a little gloat. You really are a very sore winner.

Far better that than a sore loser Smile

I was just adding some actual facts to your observations about the Conservative vote share - which is now the highest won by any party in the last 40 years!