Westminstenders: Manifesto or Bust?

[RedToothBrush]

The Brexit Party aren't doing one.

The Labour Party apparently can't afford theirs.

The Conservatives will just lie anyway.

And the LDs got upstaged by Prince Andrew's resignation from royal duties for being a fuckwit.

3 weeks to go...

The Tories have just ripped off Labour’s free hospital parking policy.

Apparently it doesn't apply to outpatients according Rachel Shabi on Sky

• sly bastards

At last, someone mentioned some polling! Apart from the big Datapraxis analysis, there have been 5 new polls released today, and on the whole they look pretty tasty!

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
BREX: 3% (-1)
Conservative Lead: 12 Points.
via @YouGov, 21 - 22 Nov
Chgs. w/ 19 Nov

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+3)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 12% (-2)
BREX: 3% (-3)
Conservative Lead: 19 Points.
via @OpiniumResearch
Chgs. w/ 15 Nov

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (+4)
LAB: 28% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-)
BREX: 3% (-6)
Conservative Lead: 13 Points.
via @BMGResearch, 19 - 21 Nov
Chgs. w/ 15 Nov

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 43% (-2)
LAB: 30% (-)
LDEM: 16% (+5)
BREX: 3% (-3)
Conservative Lead: 13 Points.
via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ 16 Nov

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 32% (+1)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-)
Conservative Lead: 10 Points.
via @SavantaComRes, 20 - 21 Nov
Chgs. w/ 19 Nov

Average Conservative Lead in Today’s Polls: 13.4 Points
Verdict: It's A Good Thing Corbyn Likes Gardening

What was the average conservative lead in 2017?

Average Conservative Lead in Today’s Polls: 13.4 Points

Do you know what the Conservative lead was in the 3 weeks before the 2017 election?

Conservatives were on 45%
Labour were on 33%

So roughly similar. A lot can happen in three weeks.

I ignore all polling predictions unless (as @basilpots does) the proportion of "Don't know/won't say" is included and analysed . Last time I looked at the data sets, it was averaging 15-20%

Ditto with those "projections" that don't include the SNP: even if they STS in Scotland (35 seats), let alone even a conservative () drop in the number of Conservative MPs from 13 to (at best ) 3 and the SNP increase to (say) 45, means that the Conservatives have to win even more seats in England in order to win a majority in WM.

And don't get me started on NI and Wales

So effectively, we're back to "who the fuck cares about NI, Wales and NI?" - it's what happens in England that matters.

A resume of 2017

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/tories-on-12-point-lead-over-labour-in-final-pre-election-poll

And it depends on how the vote is spread between the seats.

I don't think there is quite the same enthusiasm for Corbyn as there was last time, but again, it depends on which seats his votes are.

I am certainly hoping that the Tories lose in Scotland......

Alex Wickham@alexwickham

So they were privately pleased with Prince Andrew's two interventions

— each time he commits news (i.e. minutes after LibDem manifesto launch) it hurts opposition and eats up another day where something can go wrong for the Tories

“He’s clearly one of us,” jokes a Tory official

I am certainly hoping that the Tories lose in Scotland......

The obvious Labour-SNP tie-up exposed in the Question Time debate and elsewhere leaves only two parties in Scotland for which to vote if your priority is preventing Indyref Mark 2: Conservative and Lib Dem.

That should make some of the Tory seats in Scotland rather easier to hold than they might otherwise have been...

Boris Johnson's Campaign Plans An Immigration And Crime Blitz As They Fear Corbyn Will Close The Gap

https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexwickham/boris-johnsons-campaign-plans-immigration-crime?

The mother of ‘Baby P’, Tracey Connelly, is said to be up for parole during the election campaign
— and the Tories can be expected to use the case to make the argument for a tougher justice system,
and accuse Corbyn of being soft on crime.
< The Tories have been in charge for nearly 10 years, not Corbyn >

WASPI Westministenders:

Labour pledge payments to 3.8 million WASPI women (born 1950s) whose pension age was increased

If this policy among a key voting group looks popular, how long before BJ nicks it ?

@BigChocFrenzy, AFAIK he has ruled it out.

.

Love this “nopetochope” campaign

mobile.twitter.com/hashtag/NOPETOCHOPE?src=hashtag_click

BJ has ruled it out ?
ABC From his past record that just means a swift U-turn

Former Tory MP re the Baby P story:

Nick Boles@NickBoles

I am not naive about the rough and tumble of political campaigns.

But there is something truly loathsome about exploiting a child’s murder for political benefit.

No wonder my 81 year old stepmum is planning not to vote Tory for the first time in her life.

sadly Chope will definitely get in.
his majority might reduce but the demographics of that seat are solid
still amazed they did not kick Chope into the Lords after his knighthood and give the safe seat to Bozo

I like #getjohnsongone

God help us all

My Dad, a teacher, worked for the GLC after the Inner London Education Authority was abolished and before the GLC itself was abolished by Thatcher against the wishes of most Londoners. We went to the last night fireworks. There was a huge count down of days to the end of the GLC hoarding on County Hall - opposite the HoP. I remember a French friend being incredulous that the Government could remove democratic structures overruling the majority of a large, in fact, capital city and the other metropolitan authorities - how could it be possible? This could never, he was sure, 'appen in Paris.
Mrs T and her Government were not keen on opposition.

Labour pledge payments to 3.8 million WASPI women (born 1950s) whose pension age was increased

If this policy among a key voting group looks popular, how long before BJ nicks it ?

3.8 million, that's a lot of votes. And it's not as if the Tories have to actually do it they can just lie about doing it, like they do about everything else.

I remember going to those fireworks!

It is a lot of votes, from women who don’t like Johnson to start with.