Westminstenders: "They are ahead in the polls"

[RedToothBrush]

The nominations are in!

A reminder about polling...

... And its significance in this election.

In 2017 YouGov got it right. They did two types of poll. One was a general poll which was done on regional polling. Early versions of this during the campaign discounted the don't knows. Later ones guesstimated how the don't knows would vote. This polling turned out to be close to the result but not exact.

The other poll you Gov did was on a constituency level. It was right before the election and it proved to be the most accurate of all, until we saw John Curtice's exit poll (which was spot on).

This time around YouGov have just switched to a constituency version of their polling because its much more complex this time with various pacts in action. They will be promoting respondents on the basis of who is standing in their constituency.

I'm not aware of other pollsters and their methodology but YouGov is interesting because of how close they were to the result last time.

This time around we are also seeing the active use of polling to lead voters, rather than necessarily reflect it. The Lib Dems and Remain have done a lot in what they see as key marginals to aid their credibility as realistic challengers. It's a more sophisticated version of their infamous, 'Only the LDs can beat X here' barcharts of shame. But it's unlikely they will be the only ones to try and use the technique. They probably will just be a little more transparent about it.

John Curtice has gone on record as saying there are only two realistic outcomes for the election: A Tory Majority or a Hung Parliament.

For the Tories to win they need a significant lead in the polls. To be sure probably 10% lead because of the regionality and constituency anomalies. Anything less than 6 or 7 percentage ahead and it tips to a hung parliament. YouGov currently have them on 13pt lead... BUT that's without fully accounting for the 1/5 of voters who are currently undecided. Last time around those who decided at the last moment tipped heavily in favour of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

Who stays at home, or who spoils a ballot could have particular significance this time around as disenchanted voters are made up of a higher number of voters who do usually vote than usual and a broken tribalism. Thus making it more difficult to predict than ever before.

So be a bit wary of polls and what they show - and what they don't show...

Oh Hester I am so with you. To me, Johnson is utterly manipulative and a con artist. He knows he can fool people with his act, his shtick. Just like every sociopath from time immemorial. I wish people would see though the visage and deal with reality, not their fantasy.

I was driving along one of the main roads the other day and the lack of investment for just the basic maintenance jobs like cleaning signs, filling potholes, keeping verges weed-free is really evident.

I mean, I don't expect the Chelsea Flower Show, but neither do I want to peer past the Day of the Triffids when I'm trying to make a right-turn!

I read a while ago that Johnson was a good actor at school. He loved it.

He is fooling people. I personally don't think he's that believable. But watching that tea making video, which I'm sorry I know I go on about - he was doing this squinty thing with his eyes - and I was thinking 'I bet (forgotten his girlfriend's name) has told him to do that". It's a flirty/charm thing.

He's been told to flirt with the camera. He's trying to charm the public in the same way he's managed to get all those women into bed with him. I've met men like this who just turn on their charm to get what they want. Women do it too of course.

But it's weird having a PM do this. And people are actually falling for it. It's frightening.

I used to be a fan of HS2 until I looked into it more.

Given the scale of the environmental catastrophe occurring under our very noses, why not use 1/100th of that investment in wrenching firms away from the increasing obsession they have with bums on seats ?

In a parallel to the horror some people feel at the prospect of having to share costs with poor people, is a tendency for (some) bosses to have a horror that a remote worker might - just might - be able to do 8 hours office work in 6 at home.

There's also a totally unfounded and unresearched assumption behind HS2 that nothing will change while it's being built. Either in terms of demographics, population or other transport initiatives.

Like most huge infrastructure projects in the UK, the primary beneficiaries of HS2 will be the directors and shareholders of the firms that get the golden goose.

And sorry to piss on anyones parade, but I'm struggling to see what exactly HS2 brings to the party. At the moment, if I want to get to London to see my folks, from Birmingham I can drive it door-to-door in 80 minutes.

So any train journey to replace that means the actual New Street to Euston part of the journey can't take more than 30 minutes, as I need to as 20 minutes taxi ride from home to New Street, and 30 minutes tube to Rayners Lane. I'll leave the 5 minute taxi ride from there hanging.

Any slower than that, and there really is no point.

Mind you, in 20 years of living in Brum, never once has a train been cheaper than hiring a car and driving to London. Never once. I did have a boss try and insist I took a train, but he backed off when I showed him the need to book a hotel to get the timing right.

I know one chap found it cheaper to fly, on occasion.

Returning to broadband (!), not quite sure who has been speaking to who, but looks suspiciously like the Tories have been well and truly outgunned on that. Not from the UK side, but I do know that Netflix, Google and Amazon have all been quietly "nudging" various UK departments to try and up the UKs pathetic broadband offerings, as it's holding them back. So I find myself wondering who has been talking to who and what has been said. (Incidentally, they are also desperate to improve the US own offerings too ...). It might be significant that the Tories couldn't connect the dots, and Labour were able to pip them to the post.

There's also the "Facebook internet" idea

www.wired.com/story/what-happened-to-facebooks-grand-plan-to-wire-the-world/

which hasn't gone away.

Rumours (well DW just shouted through) that Eddie Stobart might be looking to join Woolworths as a pre Xmas casualty.

Bloody Corbyn.

.

DGR we got a train to London for £20 ish for family of 4. Youngest was free but his tickets would have been under £2 each way.

Granted it wasn't west coast mainline. But from our local South Midlands station.

Tanith you forgot the spoiler alert! You've ruined the surprise for when I get the leaflet (nobody has been round here yet). On the other hand...thanks for reading it so I don't have to.

Dusty it is so frustrating to see people fall for such a con. The same people who rant and rave about Corbyn.

Theres a lot of support locally for not cutting verges, well unless it's a safety issue.

Mistigri
Infrastructure spending promises are going to be a big feature of this election.
For eg the CONs yesterday promised "£500 million to reverse the Beeching rail cuts". This is literally a CON but people will fall for it because it sounds like a lot of money (it's not)
£500 million wouldn't even touch the sides. I work in natural resources so I'm familiar with the cost with big civil engineering projects. £500 million wouldn't even build you a new mine, let alone hundreds of miles of new railway.

Like Peregrina, I know of a railway that has opened during the past ten years. It was/is a new line, replacing one which was removed in 1963.

www.chilternrailways.co.uk/news/chiltern-railways-restores-direct-trains-high-wycombe-oxford

It was done with "£320m investment in brand new rail link" and it is about thirty miles from one station to the other.

£500m is indeed peanuts for this very theoretical project to undo all of Marples' cuts that were blamed on Beeching.

"Dusty it is so frustrating to see people fall for such a con. The same people who rant and rave about Corbyn.'

That made me nod and chuckle.

DGR we got a train to London for £20 ish for family of 4. Youngest was free but his tickets would have been under £2 each way.

This was 2005, 9am meeting in London (client dictated). No way to get there even on the earliest train, so I would have to have travelled the night before (because boss would have insisted I did my 9-5) and stayed in a hotel. We had 3 days notice for the meeting, and the fare would have been (from memory) about £150 - certainly more than the hotel.

Of course we could have asked the client to shift the meeting, but boss didn't want to give the impression we were a mickey mouse outfit.

Car was £80 hire.

Commuters might have a better experience of trains. But as a solution to get to meetings around the country, a car is the only viable option.

My last role - mainly WFH with trips to various offices: Eastleigh, Stoke, Glasgow, Bournemouth (obviously Belfast was a flight) every single one would have been impossible to get to and back in a day. I did once work out the series of transport connections needed to get to a 10am meeting at Eastleigh, and it started the day before. Whereas I could leave at 7am and be pulling into the car park at 9:30. All legal too.

Meanwhile, people in Paris can have a meeting in Marseilles and get back the same day without blinking.

What do I think about public transport in the UK ? It would be a nice idea.

AskingQuestions - that was the line I was talking about. I didn't know it cost £320 million. I think the old line was used but some new track had to be laid. I think that Bicester Village might have stumped up some of the cost also.

There is also a new line which opened in the Scottish Borders. I think David Steele made the journey on the last train before it closed and the first train of the new opening. Again more land had to be purchased, new stations built.

I don't want to be too much of a bore about railways, but some of the lines built were never economic. In the 19th Century the temptation was for each Railway Company to want to build its own line into London. There are times when planning nationally does make sense.

We have regularly travelled by train to Glasgow but I do agree it's not feasible in a day.

But it would be possible with flying?

I do hire a car when I go to the office. I have done public transport once as issue with hire car but it wasn't ideal and still ended up in a taxi for at least 20 mins.

Done Paris in a day before from Birmingham. It's a long day.

I do agree that the cost is often prohibitive.

Also when you need to book your flights to get best deals (personal travel) it's a long time before you can get cheaper train fares. So you can't look at both and compare.

Goodness me - it appears to have descended to the point where it’s completely fine to call me a lonely, special needs, terrier with a rat

Lovely 🤔

Look, come on.
If you don't like what bear posts (and I don't a lot of the time..) just scroll past.
Ditto clav or cend
Scroll past mine too because I won't stop pointing out the effects of austerity and telling people who vote Tory what ghey are complicit in
But we aren't school kids.
Let's just be adult and scroll on by.....

Comparing you to one is not calling you one.

Stating that doesnt help the false victimhood narrative, shame on you

Totally concur with Hooo.

I’m following the very wise advice upthread to completely ignore three posters on this thread. Just scrolling past is definitely the best policy.

Me too, just going to scroll, got upset last night with this insistent nonsensical buzzing. But I think that is the point. BCF responded so politely to the goady nastiness, directed at her, but I did get cross on her behalf. And I do generally read everyone and challenge my own bias, but deliberate goading and incessant repetition is a different matter.

I teach Functional Maths. Lots of people don’t understand millions and billions. In my opinion lots of politicians don’t either, judging from the things they say.

How did I manage to miss a whole thread?