Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...? Part deux GE 2019 special.

[placemats]

New thread.

General election 12th December 2019. Results out on Friday 13th. Unlucky day for some.

So this election is unusual in that it will focus primarily on Brexit and referendums with domestic issues tagged alongside, for some parties.

What's with Swinson and the bus, they seem to have become 'Jo's Liberal Democrats' - It's not a Presidential election? Judging by Chuka’s sound bites last night on Radio 4 they are campaigning on the basis that they are the only party with a leader from the next generation. I think the exact words were “ We need a leader for the future not a leader of the past” He also made a tenuous point about her understanding technology 🤔 Imagining how Boris and JC cope with the demands of their personal technology that is probably not a high bar to clear....

@Emilyontmoor bloody hell!

My view would be that it just makes her look like a power crazed loon. That and the my way or the highway mentality, won't work with Corbyn, foot stamping over the debates and the #debateher malarky all over twitter. Shes certainly not winning me over!

And as for the Tories...

Tory Fibs
@ToryFibs
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Jeremy Corbyn's says he wants to govern differently. No "he" but "we". Not the elite but everybody. Not blue blood, but red blood. He wants to return the role of PM to its original role. Declaring an end to Presidential Politics.

Murdoch supporting Blair was certainly a factor in at least his 1997 landslide

• a Labour leader uniquely without the constant drip-drip of hate from NewsSpews Corp It was a quid pro quo for Murdoch's business interests

Blair moved Labour away from being a party of the left to centre / centre right, where there is a gaping hole atm,
but Corbyn can't fill it
and without Murdoch on side, any successor like Starmer however "moderate", would be ripped apart like Miliband.

The Tories and their media chums learned how effective Blair was at winning normally Tory votes and staying in power for so long,
so imo they'd tear vapart any Labour leader they feared might repeat that.
He'd be demonised worse than Corbyn.

Also of course, many voters do want a party of the left, same as many want one on the right, rather than 2-3 centre parties

I live in a Tory/LD marginal constituency where we currently have a Tory MP. Even as a member of the Labour Party I've pretty much decided to vote tactically for the LD candidate as we don't have a hope here, and i'll put my campaigning efforts into supporting nearby constituencies where Labour could win. Jo Swinson, while I understand the reasons for her position (and parties rarely if ever say they will back another party while campaigning), is not making this as easy a decision as it could be! I'm mindful though that in the same way when people say yeah but Corbyn that they need to be reminded that they are voting for a local candidate, not for him, that I need to apply the same thinking to Swinson, much as she puts my hackles up.

It wasn't that Tony Blair was a brilliant Labour leader that won the 1997 election. It was that the media decided it was time for Labour to lead and made him electable

As I posted above, it was a large tactical “anyone but Conservative” vote in 1997

I think they’re trying to make Jo Swinson out to be Brigitte Nyborg in Borgen. I.e. a compromise candidate for Prime Minister when both larger parties are fundamentally opposed and parliament is likely to be hung. Taller order under FPTP than PR IMHO.

John Curtice on BBC news just saying he thinks that Boris will stand in Uxbridge.

Thanks continuity. I'm trying to get a sense of whether 30% is a "big number" or not. (My view is that it is probably an unrealistically large number, although it is only remainers, so it's roughly 15% of voters, not 30%).

It's a big number compared to 1987, anyway ...

If the Tories win, there'll be more austerity, more tax cuts for Tory mates, and a price ticket on the NHS that can be seen from space.

Spending sprees aren't necessarily spending on good causes.

Tax giveaways are a "spending spree" in the sense that they increase the deficit (all other things being equal).

There is a real risk that this becomes a government that is forced to buy popularity (by giving away a bit of money to schools and the NHS while giving away a lot of money to corporate interests), while presiding over a low-productivity, low-growth economy and a very dissatisfied electorate. That sounds like a recipe for 1970s politics to me. Winter of discontent anyone?

Curtice is usually reliable

Probably the really well-informed political commentators would have heard by now of any moved to inform a local party that they'll receive a PM by parachute and / or if any Tory MP is being offered a peerage t jump

The deadline for nominations is 4pm next Thursday, 14 November

So any move would have to be damn quick

Murdoch supporting Blair was certainly a factor in at least his 1997 landslide That's true. On a very trivial level he was youngish, good looking and an excellent public speaker. None of the current leaders fulfil all these criteria.

misti I'm assuming the 30% may be an aspirational figure on all constituencies maybe. So in some 1% may be enough, but in places like mine you'd probably need more than 30% (though that may lower if we don't get a bxp candidate) not to mention highly unlikely and possibly accounting for the fact that some remainders will already be voting for the more challenging party?

"Winter of discontent anyone?"

I was thinking of the IMF stepping in, especially if GB No Deals on 31 Dec 2020

(yes, NI and expats would be safe, but GB would fall over a cliff)

Actually misti ignore that. Just had a proper look at their blurb and it's nothing to do with that 🤦‍♀️

I always thought Blair was mostly image, not much substance behind
I thought the same of Cameron
Still do wrt both !

I'd rather parties chose people who actually know stuff, have ethics and can make good decisions,
then intensively train up their public speaking and media skills

*This thread has been running for years without needing imput from mnhq.
It's not needed now either.

Same message was posted on the pub thread earlier - suspect it’s MNHQ being even handed*

One of the pub goers complained that they were potentially being treated unfairly if the same message wasn't put on here too 🙄

Oh ffs

Bercows of course the warning message is nothing to do with the number of deletions on each thread

Seems to be going quite well for the Tories today. And by well I mean not:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-50302173
Alun Cairns quits in Ross England rape trial 'sabotage' row

Has Cairns gone? I’m also beginning to wonder if the Tories want to lose this election.

Cairns gone. Nigel Evans laughing about JRM etc. Benefits street people to be put down.
Welsh Tories holding their own so far.

Yes - Cairns has resigned.

I always thought Blair was mostly image, not much substance behind
I thought the same of Cameron. Still do wrt both ! I'm very shallow.
I felt safer when they were both in power. They sounded in control.
Atm people feel unsafe with Johnson as PM and the other numpties leading the other parties.

Best For Britain
@BestForBritain
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Replying to
@BestForBritain
The beginning of a campaign generally sets the tone and defines the narrative for the whole five weeks. Right now the Tories not only look shambolic - they look as though they’re being found out. These people deserve to be defeated, and they can be. ~JL