Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...? Part deux GE 2019 special.

[placemats]

New thread.

General election 12th December 2019. Results out on Friday 13th. Unlucky day for some.

So this election is unusual in that it will focus primarily on Brexit and referendums with domestic issues tagged alongside, for some parties.

The tories are about to go on an unfunded spending spree like a 1970s labour government. or indeed a 70s Tory government. Thatcher was certainly never averse to throwing money at tax cuts just before, or promised in, an election. Otherwise I entirely agree except it won’t matter what is in the manifestos, what will likely win the election will be faking it to win the hearts of “the people”.

I’m afraid I don’t see Corbyn pulling off his 2017 trick again. Then he had the enthusiasm of the youth vote. I have seen him walking through a certain left leaning university and the students who once chanted to him on the steps now don’t give him a second look, he has lost them. He is now part of the problem not the solution. They will be voting LD and green as they did in the European elections.

the opposition parties needed to make themselves a positive alternative

Isn't this exactly what Corbyn is doing? Turning the focus to the NHS, maintaining food and environmental standards etc.

The LDs are campaigning to revoke, which is a positive alternative if you disagree with Brexit.

I wish they'd stop beating each other up on social media but that, unfortunately, is politics.

indeed a 70s Tory government.

Thatcher shrunk the state pretty massively (we can disagree whether she did the right thing, or whether she did a right thing the wrong way, but it's hard to argue that that's what she did).

The current Tory government, and possibly/probably the next one too, is just a Tory version of a 1970s LAB govt except that they are in hock to hedge funds and Russian oligarchs rather than trades unions.

Bear If several people agree with you, why is the one stroppy one important?

Becauase it’s not what I said it’s purely because I said it

Likewise bellini vowing to ignore me (except when she doesn’t)

They are 2 perfect examples of why these threads have become so difficult to engage on

Anyway - this is going nowhere as none of you think there’s anything wrong with what you do.

Isn't this exactly what Corbyn is doing? Turning the focus to the NHS, maintaining food and environmental standards etc.

This was last week, before campaigning started - turns out it’s what they did! 😆

Frances Ryan
@DrFrancesRyan
·
1m
James Cleverly being empty-chaired, The Telegraph’s mortifying Boris Johnson PR front page, Tory HQ being humiliated for doctoring a video, Stormzy calling out Rees-Mogg.... HOOK THE TORY ELECTION CAMPAIGN TO MY VEINS.

Corbyn is offering something clearly different, which might appeal to those wanting change, a clear break with austerity
Many Labour voters and normal non-voters do want to roll back Thatcherism and have another radical government, as happened in 1945

It'll turn off those for whom private schools & low tax are important, but those voters are against Labour core values, so not a target group.

He did far better in 2017 by looking radical and raising excitement;
I don't know if the same strategy would work again and whether this is more like a 1945 cusp GE, or a 1979 one.
If the Tories continue their unpleasant statements, a hung Parliament is possible, but how long can they be so clumsy?

He would be hopeless with Blairite policies and we saw in the referendum how useless he is when he isn't passionate about what he's saying, so at least he can be sincere & passionate about a radical manifesto

This made me snigger (nicked from Leonardo Carella on twitter, who you should follow if you don't already).

You have to click on the pic to get the point though

Ed Vaizey in Wantage standing down. So Johnson' bringing him back into the fold didn't help. Another one nation Tory gone, though.

The tories are about to go on an unfunded spending spree like a 1970s labour government

Who on earth believes that guff ?

If the Tories win, there'll be more austerity, more tax cuts for Tory mates, and a price ticket on the NHS that can be seen from space.

We've been told that manifestos are meaningless. By all means if you want to get smacked in the face, be my guest. By don't whinge that you pressed a button saying "press here for a smack in the face" just before you got the smack in the face you're complaining about.

My experience of Tories is that they do vote for a smack in the face and then whine about it.

I’m minded of a song I heard once sung by assorted villains in a pantomime: “Do you want any dirty work done, any dirty work today?” That really is the government image now.

"Having a policy of ignoring people who you’ve disagreed with in the past is just narrow minded"
No, pet, it's just you .

Thanks for all the wonderful messages of support. Today is a better day.

Can someone please remind me who has been in Government since 2016, i.e. the last 3.5 years? Forgive me if I suggest it was a Conservative Government, who within that time has extended Brexit, not once, not twice, but thrice! The supply agreement with the DUP is in tatters and the Government has managed to shed Conservative MPs quicker than a snake sheds its skin.

And yet, despite the facts, despite the ineptitude it's all somehow Corbyn's fault.

I'm not stupid.

No, pet, it’s just you

bellini

a) quoting me is hardly ignoring me is it?

b) I’m sure it’s exactly this kind of constant nasty provoking by some posters which caused MN to intervene in the first place

Does anyone know if estimates exist of what proportion of voters vote tactically in a normal election

Yes - there are papers on tactical voting in political science journals.

eg:

Johnson and Pattie (1991) found that about 4% of the electorate voted tactically in 1983, and 6% in 1987, with more tactical voting in Tory held seats than in Labour seats and tactical voting was highest in marginal seats.

Evans, Curtice and Norris (2007) analysed the 1997 election where Labour gained a huge number of seats and the Lib Dem’s gained their highest number of seats since the 1920s, but both with relatively low (compared to previous years) shares of the vote. They put it down to the electorate voting for “anyone but Conservative” which cost the Tories dearly (at least 43 seats). They concluded that tactical voting was going to be increasingly important.

But in 2006 Fisher and Curtice found that although chilly relations between Labour and the Lib Dems might have led to less voters switching between the two, it was less this chilliness and more a decline in hostility towards the Tories leading to a decline in tactical voting in the 2001 and 2005 GEs.

Glad today is better placemats

We all know that Labour would be 57654795379537957972549 points ahead in the polls if they had a credible leader who had more rightwing policies

Alastair PEOPLE’S VOTE Campbell
@campbellclaret
·
3m
No secret I am not
@jeremycorbyn
No 1 fan.But if I had to guess who is more genuinely motivated- him to get rid of rough sleeping and food banks or
@BorisJohnson
to get Brexit done and focus on schools hospitals etc it’s him.Johnson thinks exactly as
@JacobReesMogg
re the poor

Thank you Poster And yes, you are right - no pun intended!

I would also add ignore those whose only intention is to disrupt the conversation and put the spotlight on them. I was given this advice once and I'm glad it was given. Do not trouble your day responding to them.

Mistigris I don’t disagree but I well remember the frustration of her election campaigns, that people could be bought with tax cuts and false promises so easily. Personally I think she did the wrong things the right way What distinguished her from this shower was that she listened to experts, put together a plan and implemented it. And I do think that she swung that handbag in what she truly believed was for the good of the country.

I'm so pleased today is a better day @placemats

What's with Swinson and the bus, they seem to have become 'Jo's Liberal Democrats' - It's not a Presidential election?

I literally have absolutely no idea who to vote for - argh!

It wasn't that Tony Blair was a brilliant Labour leader that won the 1997 election. It was that the media decided it was time for Labour to lead and made him electable. Great conspiracy theory. Corbyn's a shit leader and you know it.

I'm gonna say it again....

I'm not at all sure that the tories want to win this election....