Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...? Part deux GE 2019 special.

[placemats]

New thread.

General election 12th December 2019. Results out on Friday 13th. Unlucky day for some.

So this election is unusual in that it will focus primarily on Brexit and referendums with domestic issues tagged alongside, for some parties.

“It just seems the common sense thing to do and it’s such a tragedy that that didn’t happen but I don’t think it’s anything to do with race or class.” JRM

AskingQuestions I don't think that what is being reported about JRM's comments on Grenfell is materially any different from his words.

We are left with 'stupidity', 'deference to the point of stupidity' and other personal failings including lack of common sense as reasons people stayed in their flats in Grenfell, and when he says that he and (his wife? the interviewer?) would have made a run for it the implied comparison leaves him fair game for all the shit that will stick on him.

It's not unhinged BCF - he is trying to associate Corbyn and Stalin.
The education debate and anyone complaining about offshore tax havens are being presented as evidence of the imminent declaration of some sort of People's Republic.

We have seen that tack on these threads.

............
The more the Russian Report circus plays out, the more the Saudi and American influence flies under the radar. Even reports on the acquisition of the Independent and the London Evening Standard, both Evgeny Lebedev media holdings in the UK, focus on the Russian angle and not on the fact that the Saudi Arabian regime now enjoys a 30% stake in major British media outlets.

Give an entitled overpromoted public school boy enough rope.........schadenfreude isn't attractive but I can't help it when it comes to this.

At least the Lib Dem's are saying ' we want to remain in the EU and will overturn A50'
Pretty straightforwards regardless of what you think of Jo or the party. Their other policies I know less about. Not teaming up with labour is also not surprising as Lib Dem's tend to ' side ' with the right ( not that she would this time around , but only because of Brexit!)
Labour's policy on Brexit was made a bit clearer to me by Keir Starmer on tv interview. Although having to agree a deal, then vote it down then go for another referendum is a bit less straightforwards. With a majority it might be ok but I think most people realise a labour majority probably won't happen.. ( i can't see that happening)
The tories will do whatever they can to stay in power! That's how it looks to me.
Austerity ending being one.

Do you know if I were a betting womsn (Im not) I'd put money on a tiny labour majority, with a supply and demand with the SNP. There just isn't that feeling of a winning side with the Tories. The electorate feel betrayed by the bus enthusiast. Jeremy Corbyn comes across as calm and measured, what he says about social justice makes sense, what he says about Brexit seems fair. The other 2 just seem self serving. Jo Swinson sadly comes across as shrill (that may be my internalised mysogeny) I can't bring so self to vote for unequivicol revoke.

I think Swinson had to rule out a formal coalition, certainly with Corbyn. A lot of her potential voters are extremely anti-Corbyn.

Interesting thread last night from @sturdyAlex on twitter:

The media is obsessed with whether Labour and the LDs will enter coalition with another party.

And yet it never asks itself who the Tories will do a deal with?

It's a kind of subliminal bias by political reporters and interviewers that reminds voters that Labour can't win a majority. And most likely they can't; but the campaign isn't over yet and the result will be influenced by those one-sided reports and interviews

I'd put money on a tiny labour majority,

That's an enormous hill to climb with a roughly 8 point Tory lead. The death of Labour in Scotland makes a Labour majority virtually impossible, ever let alone in this election.

But it's possible that in a no overall majority situation even with the Tories as the largest party, it will be easier for Labour to form a coalition or to obtain confidence and supply from other parties than the Tories. The DUP may not want to play this time, BXP probably won't win any seats and the independent tories (if they win their seats) won't support the Tories' flagship policy.

I agree with Misti.

I suspect the Conservatives were ready to go with a whole load of, 'Vote Swinson, Get Corbyn' adverts.

Which would have gone down very badly with the voters the LibDems are targeting.

It's not great - but it's where we are in this election.

As for comparing a tax hike (which would add something like £8.50 to the tax of people earning £80,000) to the deaths in Stalin's purges ... words fail me.

It's grotesque.

Especially when you remember people are dying - right now - through NHS cuts, through cuts to mental health provision, to provision for the homeless; and life expectancy has stalled or is falling.

It's actually messing with people's ability to process evidence and truth.

But, again, it seems to be where we are in this utterly grim election.

It's not unhinged BCF - he is trying to associate Corbyn and Stalin.

Which is as unhinged as trying to associate Johnson and Hitler.

Just had that same conversation with DH. Please show me the 8 point lead cos DH was just talking a 12 point one

I can't see Corbyn doing well at all . If labour had a leader people could believe in they might have a chance, but they don't.
Even the young have deserted him I think.
It's just my view and it's depressing but this election is so lacklustre and people just don't know who to vote for.

JRM's comment was just so revealing about his overall mindset - if horrible things happen to you it's not that you have incredibly bad luck, it's because you're serious (therefore implying you deserve it). This is his attitude towards the poor, disabled, etc in general. His comment is just a little peek behind that curtain.

Stupid, not serious.

@hopefulhalf

Go to Britain selects website... You’ll be able to find a polls that fits a whole range of figures!

The LDs, who do after all want to win seats (it is kind of their raison d'être ) are basically appealing to centrist remain voters who cannot stand Corbyn but who don't want to vote for a hard-right pro-Brexit party either.

There are a LOT of voters in this category up for grabs and you can't blame the LDs for wanting to grab them!

If I think of the 30 or so people in my immediate work circle at work, many of whom are Tory remain voters who live in seats that the LDs will rightly be targeting - I don't think any would vote explicitly for a Corbyn government.

OTOH, if the Best for Britain people really think that they can get 30% of remain voters to vote tactically they have another think coming. The LDs cannot target Tory remainers without putting off many Labour remainers, as this thread shows.

But tbh I think there is a good chance that many Labour remainers will return to the fold anyway - as tends to happen at GEs. I think Tory and centrist remain voters are a much more sensible target for the LDs as a party; unfortunately this is probably not a winning strategy if your main objective is getting remainers to vote tactically as a bloc. But in a situation where Labour will not envisage any electoral alliances even in seats they cannot win, I don't think the LDs can be blamed for that.

I can't see Corbyn doing well at all . If labour had a leader people could believe in they might have a chance, but they don't.

The thing is, Labour were doing really badly in the polls before the 2017 election, about as badly as they have been this time. People said then that no one trusted or liked Corbyn and that was the reason for their poor poll showing. The election campaign concentrated minds though and JCs strong qualities came through. I wonder if we might be surprised again. (By the way, I’m no Corbyn supporter so this isn’t just wishful thinking from me).

But ... 'the profit motive' ...

The 'profit motive' killed - burned alive real, actual humans, With real, actual wishes, dreams, hands, feet, faces, in Grenfell Tower.

There are good reasons to dislike, even hate if.

Pretending the victims were stupid, deserved it, not like me and you (who are in some way exempt from being victims of the 'profit motive), just loads insult onto inequity.

There are good reasons to question the profit motive.

Jacob Rees Mogg won't question the profit motive.

He'll have you blaming the victims of the profit motive

And, yes, that could end up being you - or your family, or your friends.

Blindly forcing the profit motive as a substitute for compassion, moral considerations and ethical base really does end in a fire of our values.

Questioning that profit motive is not Stalinism. It's quite the opposite, in fact.

Just had that same conversation with DH. Please show me the 8 point lead cos DH was just talking a 12 point one

Off the top of my head and I was talking about the average.

Think we'll see some movement in polls in the coming weeks, as the unusually high percentage of "don't knows" make their decision. A lot of Labour voters who are sulking about their party's Brexit policy will return to the fold.

placemats

OTOH, if the Best for Britain people really think that they can get 30% of remain voters to vote tactically they have another think coming. The LDs cannot target Tory remainers without putting off many Labour remainers, as this thread shows.

Many posts here also show (albeit not so much in past few pages) there are plenty of people who will ‘hold their nose’ and vote for either Labour or the LDs if they felt that was necessary to defeat a Tory candidate.

Whose comparing Johnson to hitler ? He's just a arogant over previledged idiot. Not especially bright , who has surrounded himself with yes men.

I agree Oakenbeach: plenty. But surely nowhere near the 30% that people are estimating is needed. I suspect that you (like me) move in professional circles where there are plenty of centre and soft right remain vote looking for a home. Not sure this is representative of remainers more widely.

Remember that the single biggest group of remainers are people who voted Labour in the last two GEs.

Honestly.
What a disgrace.
Jacob Rees Mogg,for example, loves the 'profit motive' so viscerally that he would literally dehumanise all those who suffer pointlessly for them profit motive' as kindling for those who end up with the profit.
It's obscene.

Oakenbeach Wed 06-Nov-19 06:38:57
"It's not unhinged BCF - he is trying to associate Corbyn and Stalin."

Which is as unhinged as trying to associate Johnson and Hitler.

Au contraire.
You can't help noticing the extreme nationalism, the hankering after a glorious past, the xenophobia and racism and strong tendency to demonise those it targets including even the British poor, the anti-intellectualism, the intemperate, hate-filled language, the association with Nigel Farage and UKIP, Marine le Pen in the cheering section along with libertarian right wingers in the US, the money flowing from anti-democratic quarters in the US, the ease with which the Conservative and Unionist Party associates itself with the DUP despite its well known fundamentalist, racist, bigoted and xenophobic platform and despite - or maybe in admiration for its paramilitary wing, the populism and promises and the money tree, or the contempt for Parliament.

Whereas universal state education is actually a lot more Finland than the USSR circa 1934, and an end to offshore squirreling away of billions and higher taxes for the rich used to be a generally accepted way of conducting an economy and a society - this was back when the concept of 'society' was something everyone could get behind of course. Before the American libertarian think tanks started to get their tentacles into the UK.

You know, I sometimes cannot believe how far we have travelled.

We are supposed to deal with this Conservative Party reasonably and dispassionately.

But that, in and of itself, is a concession.

These people have taken over the Conservative Party.

And they do not have good intentions for the majority of the UK.