Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...? Part deux GE 2019 special.

[placemats]

New thread.

General election 12th December 2019. Results out on Friday 13th. Unlucky day for some.

So this election is unusual in that it will focus primarily on Brexit and referendums with domestic issues tagged alongside, for some parties.

Ha, looked it up. 50.7 % leave, 49.2% remain, or as the local paper put it “...... overwhelmingly votes leave.”

3dogs

I suspect the Russian Interference Report will be milked for all it's worth by the Tories, because as with all other Russia-related reportage, it conveniently distracts from all the interference by Saudi Arabia (as evidenced by the Guardian report that for some reason homed in on Russian guests and ignored the Middle East). And from the interference both covert and flagrantly overt coming from across the Atlantic. By comparison with the Robert Mercers and Koch Brothers and gung ho founders of private investment banks of this world, the Russians seem to have to work pretty hard to get a handshake or a game of tennis.

Who is Shore Capital's Howard Shore and why did Shore Capital and companies linked to it donate £450,000 to the Tories as of the date of the article (more than five years ago, that is, when Brexit was just a twinkle in the eye of the captains of this or that fund or private bank)?

Shore Capital, incidentally, is based on Guernsey well duh
www.cnbc.com/video/2016/06/15/eu-is-a-failed-project-shore-capital-.html
'EU is a failed project' - Shore Capital. Well, well, well...
Here we see Howard Shore sharing his thoughts on the EU and how the UK needs to compete on a global basis and make the economy 'more dynamic'.
Perhaps by making a heaping bonfire of EU-guaranteed workers' rights?
This man comes across as the sort who always considers what's in any given proposal for him before deciding on its merits. What possible offshore proposals of the EU's could have motivated the stink eye in the direction of the EU, I wonder...

The home secretary was placed with Lord de la Warr, director of Cluff Natural Resources, which is exploring underground coal gassification in Warwickshire, as well as Wafic Said, the Syrian-Saudi businessman who helped broker the al-Yamamah arms deal.
The Home Secretary in question was Theresa May.

On one table were representatives of the little-known Tory dining club, United and Cecil. Since 2001, its members have donated over £900,000 to the party through the club, without individuals being named.

The defence secretary, Philip Hammond, shared a table with the Saudi Arabian head of the Arab British Chamber of Commerce, Afnan Al-Shuaiby; the table was paid for by Lord Clanwilliam, a PR adviser who works for the government of Bahrain, which has faced criticism over its human rights record. Clanwilliam declined to comment.

What's all this ^^ then?

I think the only reasonable conclusion to be drawn from all of this is that the UK is and has been for quite some time a wholly owned subsidiary of whoever-wherever-whatever has the deepest pockets, Saudi Arabia being the obvious culprit. Not Russia.
sites.tufts.edu/corruptarmsdeals/the-al-yamamah-arms-deals/

Article linked by BCF upthread:
www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/01/-sp-tory-summer-party-drew-super-rich-supporters-with-total-wealth-of-11bn

I'm still stunned that Sinn Féin would stand down to help a Unionist, the widow of an RUC Chief Constable -
and to actually vote for her

SF is clearly the leading NI party in waiting, with the DUP vote looking pretty shaky, and it is the largest Remain party, but it refuses to take its seats if elected. Encouraging its voters to come out and vote for other Remain parties without needing to consider taking seats if elected is very smart. SF is a little vulnerable on the question of the Oath with the prospect of NI being stuck in a No Deal nightmare barreling down on it.

Sylvia Hermon has stood as an independent after leaving the UUP and there has been a sort of gentlemen's agreement that they won't put up a candidate against her up to now, but under new UUP leadership they are putting up a candidate against her this time, and so her seat might be under pressure. Her majority against the DUP candidate last time round was just over 1000 votes. The fear is that with Hermon, the UUP and the DUP standing, as well as a nationalist candidate, the Hermon vote might be split between UUP and the lady herself, with SF having no realistic hope, and the DUP could limp in.

NHS worker here in a Lan/Con marginal - no brainer.

Because of the General Election, the closing date for the petition you signed has changed. All petitions now have to close at 00:01am on 6 November. This is because Parliament will be dissolved, which means all parliamentary business – including petitions – will come to an end until after the election. This means the petitions site will be closed and people will not be able to start or sign petitions.

Facebook bans political ad posted by ex-Downing Street aide

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50296664

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50280691?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter

Promised starter homes 'not built yet'
In 2014 the government promised to build 200,000 "starter homes" for people under the age of 40, sold at a 20% discount. But the National Audit Office (NAO) finds this has not resulted in any being constructed.

The reason? The legislation needed to push the project forward was never passed, it says. This means that sites in Plymouth, Bury, Basildon, Stockport, Bridgwater, Cinderford and Bristol are now being used for housing more generally, rather than all of it being affordable.

Labour says ministers have wasted years and millions of pounds. But the government says it has a "great track record" on housing and has delivered more than 430,000 affordable homes since 2010.

What a fucking suprise

@Icantreachthepretzels

I will let you know what my final thoughts are. We are quite a remainy constituency which might just swing things for the lib dems. I will keep my ear to the ground.

That's so depressing Just. The NIMBY's are out in force here, trying to block the latest iteration of the city building plan. On the other hand, our neighborhood has seen a big social housing regeneration project, with dilapidated maisonette blocks replaced with a mix of terrace and low rise. It's mixed social, affordable, and market, suspect the not enough of the first though.

Will Hutton
@williamnhutton
· 10h
Elections are always about competing narratives - and the Tory narrative, as some privately concede, is really weak. Get Brexit Done: but to what end? Its a party with no intellectual anchorage and no larger purpose. Such parties rarely win outright.A reason for hope

Don't forget, those of you who are in Con/Lab marginals, but where LibDems are polling strongly, that these potential votes could be coming from now politically homeless Remain Tories. The sort who would almost never vote Labour, but a vote for the LibDems is one less for the Tory candidate. Especially if that Tory is a Brexiteer.

Not enough quick profit in the social housing market MShip and this worries me so much, I blame BCF mainly for this , I think a Labour government is the last chance we have of at least trying to some semblance of fairness back into the country and if we dont, here im in agreement with BCF, we are going to get increasingly more and more authoritarian governments, whether thats left or right (I dont particularly want an authoritarian left government) with increasingly more draconian measures to deal with dissenters, and to top it all off I do believe for once, the every 5 year NHS cry of Labour that we are actually at the make/break point of the NHS due to funding and the hostile enviroment, urgh what the fuck do we do? right?

@PicardJE at the FT

In the 2015 election the Tories promised to create 200,000 “starter homes” sold at a discount to young first-time buyers.

So how many have been built so far?

Zero, according to Whitehall’s spending watchdog.....

This just popped up - it acquires a new relevant with the refusal to publish the Russian report

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/26/boris-johnson-security-evgeny-lebedev-perugia-party

"A trip Boris Johnson made to Italy for a party held by a billionaire socialite ended with the then foreign secretary at an airport “looking like he had slept in his clothes”, struggling to walk in a straight line and telling other passengers he had had a heavy night.

Pictures of the now prime minister along with an account from a fellow traveller shed further light on Johnson’s weekend away at the home of the media owner Evgeny Lebedev, who is known for hosting uproarious parties for the rich and famous.

Johnson has refused to answer questions about the visit in April last year, including whether he flew to Italy against the advice of his officials and without the 24/7 security detail usually assigned to the foreign secretary."

What I really want to know is why, if Johnson wants to get Brexit done, he didn't pursue the WAIB. We'd have been out before Christmas.

If the electorate falls for this (and they probably will) then gullible isn't a strong enough word.

Chris Taylor
@ctaylor1902
·
13m
Replying to
@Peston
and
@BorisJohnson
In heavily Remain Norwich, Chloe Smith’s recent flyers don’t even have ANY Conservative branding on them! No clue as to the party she represents- almost like she thinks they’ll be unpopular here...

Uh-oh

Own goal by the BBC. While I think there is some merit in the argument that if their news coverage displeases both sides then it is getting something right, the ease with which Conservative and Brexit party/UKIP stooges can get through audience selection processes eg for QT is genuinely concerning (especially if some of them are actors as seems plausible).

See also the non-apology for wrongly correcting the audience member who referred to Vote Leave breaking electoral law.

Michael Gove urged to apologise for sharing antisemitic tweet falsely attributed to Labour member

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/michael-gove-twitter-antisemitic-jewish-labour-member-corbyn-momentum-a9184601.html

Porter told MPs last month that vulnerable people would die as a result of social care cuts if the funding gap between resources and demand widened further

The Guardian article was published on 2nd July (with Theresa May as PM), on 1st August they published this article;

Pledges to fix social care could cost Boris Johnson dearly
"PM faces political and financial perils that have defeated his predecessors"

"fixing social care in England and Wales has proved intractable and politically perilous for both Labour and Conservative governments in recent years. But, if he is to be taken at his word, the prime minister is not deterred."

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/aug/01/promising-to-fix-social-care-could-cost-boris-johnson-dearly

Is it just me, and I'm very aware of my own bias so would appreciate others view on this, or does the wheels look like theyre falling off the Tory £350,000,000 bus?

@Mistigri you mentioned a few pages back that if the WAB passes we have 11 months and then it’s not No Deal it will be No Trade Deal.
What does No Trade Deal mean? How is it different from No Deal?

Poster: I think having called the election, they kind of don't know what to do with it. It's odd really: you'd think they had a campaign plan ready to go.

I don't doubt that they are still the favourites, but I think that nervousness is setting in about whether Johnson is a liability, whether the Russian election meddling report will leak/blow up (probably not but you never know), and what the CPS will do with the information given to them by the Met about election law breaches (nothing probably, but would you be sitting comfortably while waiting to find out?). They also still don't know what Farage will do.

Plus if the PM runs in his current constituency there is a real risk that he could lose, but if he jumps ship he looks frit.

So while they are the favourites, they do look to have everything to lose.