Westminstenders: From Uxbridge to...? Part deux GE 2019 special.

[placemats]

New thread.

General election 12th December 2019. Results out on Friday 13th. Unlucky day for some.

So this election is unusual in that it will focus primarily on Brexit and referendums with domestic issues tagged alongside, for some parties.

James Kirkup: The hole at the heart of Tory economics

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/the-hole-at-the-heart-of-tory-economics/amp/?

I suspect the 2019 general election campaign will be very light on discussion of Conservative economic policy.
.....
Because a Conservative Party that relies on the votes of lower-income voters who like a more generous state is not a party that can easily maintain supposedly Thatcher-inspired ambitions to shrink the state and lessen the tax burden.

It may well be a party that tries to duck the hard choice between cuts and taxes by borrowing more;
the last couple of years suggest modern Tories aren’t afraid to splash borrowed cash on unfunded promises.

But if that continues, what remains of the Tory claim to be the party of sound money, good housekeeping and balanced budgets?
.....
Ideas of Thatcherism are especially relevant to this discussion when we get to Brexit and the economic model that Britain constructs outside the EU.

Brexit might bring Workington man to the Tories, but does he expect or want our exit to turn his country into a bigger, colder Singapore?

To develop a coherent economic policy, Tories will sooner or later have to confront the discordance
between what voters in Leave-leaning Tory target seats want
and the libertarianism of senior Tories such as Liz Truss.

Truss has won fame and popularity among a certain sort of Tory for celebrating the freest of markets and lauding young Brits as ‘#Uber-riding #Airbnb-ing #Deliveroo-eating #freedomfighters’. 🤮

Several of her colleagues worry that the voters needed to win this year’s election experience the economic disruption Truss celebrates as a negative force in their lives.

On the long list of economic questions for the Tories to answer one day:
can a party celebrate Uber and get the votes of taxi drivers?
.....
The Conservatives might, just, be able to win the general election without answering these questions and setting a coherent economic policy.

They will not be able to govern that way.

Hi - how's it working out for you guys? Have y'all worked out who you are voting for yet?

I know I have - traditional 'floating voter' - for the first time ever I know weeks in advance how I'm going to vote on the day.

Are there any voters out there who really don't know how they are going to vote yet? What are you wating for to make your decision?

It's not "no deal" if transition ends without a deal; it's "no trade deal". The agreements on the Irish frontstop and citizens' rights remain intact.

RTB that Chris Prosser piece is excellent. Though as the BXP gets squeezed this will become less important.

I wonder if he's done anything on Labour leave constituencies? I shall go and look. People seem to struggle with the idea that, in a Labour leave constituency, leave voters and Labour voters are not necessarily the same people (whereas in Tory leave constituency, leave voters and Tory voters are mostly the same).

Tactical voting here hate

Not thrilled at the choices but can live with it and - more importantly, perhaps - myself.

I'm in a Labour/SNP toss up seat. Still debating but leaning towards Labour. It's not as clear a remain position as SNP, but I don't care for the current Scottish government (it is definitely not as left of centre as it's often portrayed!) and I would resent my vote being counted as pro independence. I did vote SNP in 2017 as the constituency was a three way race with the Tories under Ruth Davidson, and the nationalists seemed to have a better chance (they did). The previous Labour MP is running again and he was a good constituency MP with real local ties.

PM accused of cover-up over report on Russian meddling in UK politics

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/04/no-10-blocks-russia-eu-referendum-report-until-after-election

Boris Johnson was on Monday night accused of presiding over a cover-up after it emerged that
No 10 refused to clear the publication of a potentially incendiary report examining Russian infiltration in British politics, including the Conservative party.

Downing Street indicated on Monday that it would not allow a 50-page dossier from the intelligence and security committee to be published before the election, prompting a string of complaints over its suppression.

The committee’s chairman, Dominic Grieve, called the decision “jaw dropping”, saying no reason for the refusal had been given,
while Labour and Scottish Nationalist party politicians accused No 10 of refusing to recognise the scale of Russian meddling.

Fresh evidence has also emerged of attempts by the Kremlin to infiltrate the Conservatives by a senior Russian diplomat suspected of espionage,

who spent five years in London cultivating leading Tories including Johnson himself.
....
The dossier specifically examines Russian attempts to interfere in the 2016 EU referendum.

Members of the committee – which meets in secret because of the sensitivity of its work –
had wanted to make recommendations to introduce greater safeguards ahead of the December poll.
....
In 2014, Lubov Chernukhin – the wife of the former Russian deputy finance minister – paid £160,000 to play tennis with Johnson and David Cameron.
The match was the star lot at a Conservative summer party auction.

Another guest at the 2013 fundraiser was Vasily Shestakov, Vladimir Putin’s judo partner.

Committee members were also briefed on an extraordinary – and for a while an apparently successful – attempt to penetrate Conservative circles by Nalobin, who instigated a pro-Kremlin parliamentary group, the Conservative Friends of Russia

I'm in a seat where tories have had more than 50% of the vote share for the past two elections.

Labour came closest last time, BUT:

Lib dem held the seat in 2010, and they seem to think that their polling reflects this is a possibility this time (slightly sceptical about this).
The Lib Dem candidate is a fairly popular Councillor.
Lib dems did hugely well in council elections.

I dont know how the balance will tip. We're a donut constituency and the centre of our donut is strong Labour, who has a good press presence locally.

The Labour candidate seems well though of too.

I'm a member of the local pro-eu fb groups and I'm hoping for some more guidance nearer the time.

Have we talked about the impact of Christmas post pressures and a possible strike on the election?

Older folks more likely to have a postal vote I think?

All you lucky actively enfranchised folk living in marginal seats. Our local Tory (at the time) MP had a majority of over 24,000 and even though he's now defected, there'll be another donkey along to don the blue rosette. Labour was in 2nd place and the LDs a way behind, but Best for Britain says I should vote for the latter. They were almost 30,000 behind last time. Go figure. Won't make a blind bit of difference anyway

I think there could be some surprising results in southern Tory constituencies Hasenstein. And I have my quibbles about the Best for Britain advice, but they are absolutely correct that a large Tory majority in a somewhat remain-y constituency will not be overturned by Labour. These are the sort of "nothing to lose" seats where Labour could usefully stand down (though I do of course realise that they won't).

I'm in a seat where tories have had more than 50% of the vote share for the past two elections.

The critical question is probably "what was the remain share of the vote".

The more remain-y the constituency, the more any national swing to the LDs will be amplified.

Me too Hoo - everything else is just noise.

We had a Conservative leaflet which completely omitted mention of the previously rebel Tory incumbent MP - presumably back in the fold too late for press. Anyway, it just witters on about the LibDems.

It's been a Tory seat since 2005 with Labour second, except libdem second in 2010. And that was a freak result due to Labour candidate iirc. Other than, LibDems a long way behind

And by the way, thanks to everyone who comes out and shouts for the disabled, the carers, the SEN children, the self-employed, the gig-workers, the homeless - I know there's more, but these are only the descriptives that I myself have experienced and do experience in my own life.

All of these have formed my various votes for whatever elections I'm voting in. I'm sure many here have also experienced these things - as well as I'm sure many here haven't experienced them, just use the 'bad experiences' of others as a theoretical drum to beat others with.

I'm in a marginal. My MP gets pretty much no positive endorsements on her Twitter feed. I'm slightly surprised she's not standing down - no-one would notice.

I’m in a Labour target seat, currently held by a Conservative MP whose majority was radically reduced in 2017. Luckily the tactical voting sites I’ve checked agree Labour is the party to go for, so at least I’m not faced with conflicting advice. Nonetheless I notice the Lib Dem’s projected vote share on one of the tactical voting sites is much higher than I’d expect.

It got me thinking, in voting intention polls from YouGov recently I’ve usually been selecting the “don’t know” option, but on at least one occasion I selected Lib Dem. As YouGov know I’m generally a Labour voter, they would have me down as a swing from Lab to Lib based on this poll. However, now there is an actual election scheduled, knowing my area and thanks to Labour having firmed up their Brexit position I will almost certainly vote Labour again.

Could the big swings to Lib Dems that are driving some of the tactical voting recommendations be based on disgruntled Labour voters signalling their disapproval via polls but who will return to the Labour fold now they have promised a vote on the deal? I hope these groups will be doing some new polls and adjusting closer to the time if necessary.

HateIsNotGood - I just can't understand why anyone who cares about the people you mention would ever vote Tory?

It is so depressing to live somewhere where you know your vote has no weight. My MP is Damian Collins, your typical red-trousered Tory boy.

Round here, most people are old, white, dont like them immigrants what keep washing up on our beaches (some of the shit people write on social media is astoundingly horrible).

My vote is useless, whether I vote LD or Lab - but I wont bloody vote Tory, just for my own conscience if nothign else.

YouGov stopped sending me surveys when I started to say I was a UKIP voter. I wanted to see what it'd then ask me. Found out fairly quickly they wouldn't ask me anything ever again. 😁

Did you say you were in York Outer on the last thread @ClashCityRocker?

That's my sister's constituency (she's just moved in). She can't follow this stuff as closely (mixture of leave voting boyfriend and I think it just being a bit too much/ too scary for her to cope with the minutiae) so she wants me to tell her which way to vote. But I don't live in York!

Any info and updates on which way the wind is blowing in your constituency would be gratefully received

Arsedarkly because whoever has had government the real decisions that have been made regarding ds's sen, access to education, our access to social housing have all been made at a local level - the only thing that kept us afloat was the national entitlements to TC/DLA/Carers.

We have survived the system against all the odds, over 15+ years. I do feel best placed to articulate our circumstances as do others who have lived and do live through similar.

Unless you do live the circumstance of being a Carer, have a SN child, being homeless, I rather find the allusions and blame-casting for our plight rather self-serving, not really empathetic and I choose to ignore poster's theorectical, but not experienced, pain

Hate - Do I really have to justify my experiences in order to ask a simple question? I have suffered personally from lack of provision for people with MH issues. I am a carer for my elderly dm with dementia. I have good friends with disabled dc who have gone through hell to try to get the help they need. I have heard hundreds of stories through the media of people's suffering through austerity cuts.

You have stated elsewhere that your vote this time is based purely on Brexit and that in another GE you might vote differently. As you have made a point of identifying the problems you have to deal with I was genuinely interested in why you would vote for a government which has wreaked such havoc on services. Damage to local services has come about as a result of government cuts.

I think I have decided to vote Labour, and, given that I am a LP member that should have been a given, but wasn’t. Safe Tory seat with labour in 2 nd place, but strong local Lib Dem’s. I don’t know if we were a leave or remain constituency, but I would guess leave. Have to look it up.
You’re all such politics geeks, I bet some could guess where I live just on that little bit. But I’ll give another clue. East Midlands.

A major reason for local government cuts is that the Tory government has repeatedly cut the amount given to them from the central budget

.... and the Tories cut arbitrarily, not considering the differing needs within each region

e.g. a Tory peer said this:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jul/02/one-in-five-councils-face-drastic-spending-cuts-within-months

Lord Porter, the LGA chairman and a Tory peer, said:
“As this survey shows, if the government fails to adequately fund local government, there is a real risk to the future financial viability of some services and councils.”
....
Porter told MPs last month that vulnerable people would die as a result of social care cuts if the funding gap between resources and demand widened further, saying that

“the first serious shock will be when a secretary of state has to stand up and explain to the public
why those people died because the money was not available”