Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

Listening A minority in Ireland and a small majority in NI don't want a United Ireland

However, the polls show ⅔ of people in Ireland would vote for it if NI does
and the demographics in NI will change in the Nationalists favour over the next few decades

A United Ireland is an emotional subject and - as we have learned - many people don't care about the finances in such a case.

In any case, Ireland won't foot the financial bill alone:

the EU would invest in NI and return it to prosperity, just as it did to Ireland, which was very poor and dependent on the UK when we both joined the common market

Just as it has done for the much larger countries in Eastern Europe
Compared to those countries, regenerating a country of 1.8 million looks very doable

Good Friday Referendum results, to refresh your mind Listening

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Northern_Ireland_Good_Friday_Agreement_referendum

Before the indignation:

"dependent on the UK" means Irish trade was very dependent on the UK back in 1972

Since then, Ireland has massively modernised and diversified, become prosperous and UK trade is a much smaller %

Just wanted to add my comment to others:- @Icantreachthepretzels it sounds like you and your travelling companions dealt with that man with grace, dignity and aplomb. I'm sure you were also echoed in your behaviour by the vast majority of marchers.

Good Friday Referendum results, to refresh your mind Listening

With a caveat that it's a generation (two generations, really) out of date. There are 18 year olds that can vote now that weren't even born at the time of the referendum, plus 38 year olds who just missed out first time around.

Or are we using the Breixteer definition of "referendum" as set in stone until the end of recorded time ?

Hear hear DGR!

Sorry but I agree with Listening.

People in the ROI certainly historically did view the North as a bunch of nutters... I'm not saying I agree, just the way it was when I was growing up in 80's.
It's possibly different now. I hope so!

PMK

I'd look at the polls in RoI, i.e. data rather than personal impressions

These consistently show about ⅔ of people would vote for a United Ireland
margin of error won't change that

I assume that when Ireland was divided, Derrry for one place, and maybe others, lost its natural hinterland, and the links might be reforged? And were beginning to be reforged with the GFA?

I'm confused about talk of the Meaningful Vote being brought back and the numbers being there for it. Regardless of whether Bercow will allow it, is it not dependent on which amendments are attached to it whether it passes ? I can't see the ERG voting for it if a customs union is attached for example. Totally lost as to what's going on now and what is possible.

peregrina Irish Times history - shocking how Belfast has declined from being Ireland's powerhouse
This fall was well underway long before the Troubles:

The RoI’s economy is four x larger than NI’s, generated by a work force that is only 2.5 x larger
The RoI’s industrial output is 10 x that of the NI
RoI exports are 17 times x those of NI
RoI average income = €39,873, vs €23,700 in NI

https://www.irishtimes.com/northern-ireland-and-the-tripadvisor-index-of-economic-vibrancy-1.33110777_

The union with Britain has been an economic calamity for Northern Ireland.
All the people have suffered, Catholic and Protestant, unionist and nationalist.

In 1920, 80 per cent of the industrial output of the entire island came from the three counties around Belfast.

Belfast was the biggest city in Ireland in 1911, larger than Dublin, and was home to Ireland’s innovation and technology.

...[now] Dublin is three times bigger than Belfast, far more cosmopolitan and home to hundreds of international companies.

At partition the North was industrial and rich, the South agricultural and poor.
Fast-forward to now, and the contrast couldn’t be greater.

The collapse of the Northern Ireland economy compared with that of the Republic has been unprecedented.
East and West Germany come to mind.

BigChoc
I'm not a big fan of polls.

The economics of Northern Ireland are such that it will need MASSIVE injections of capital for decades.
The EU can only do that by taking it from members - including the Republic (but presumably not including the UK by then)
Ireland would need a 'dowry' - they would be mad not to ask for one
but the UK will not be able to afford one
it will be messy.

Reunifying within the EU is one thing
after Brexit it may be quite another

Violet If amendments are approved, then the same MPs who voted for these would (likely) vote for the WA at the 3rd reading

Any chance Boris gets thrown in jail tomorrow for contempt of court? That's currently my happy thought.

DGR but the problem with your illogical argument is that no one has called to rescind the GFA. In fact, more people from Northern Ireland have applied for Irish passports since Brexit was set in stone and the number of British passports has declined.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/fall-in-number-of-british-passports-issued-in-northern-ireland-38395531.html

In other words DGR the people living in the island of Ireland are quite happy and content but fear that Brexit will upset the status quo.

Listening 1.8 million people can be massively helped by 450 million
GB, with a population of 67 million, subsidises NI by about 10 billion quid per year

The former E European countries - with much larger populations - were in a much worse state and umpteen billions of EU support has help them rise up

Look at the transformation of Ireland itself since joining the Common Market, also enabled by billions in EU investment

Of course it is doable financially

In Germany, I saw non-member East Germany reunite with West Germany within the EU

The EU have said some time ago that if NI & Ireland vote for a United Ireland, then they would be a member country in the same way

In fact from my link above:

The DUP's Brexit spokesperson Sammy Wilson said the figures don't "particularly" concern him.

"There could be a lot of reasons behind it, but nothing that would give any cause for alarm," he said.

"The Irish passport comes through a heck of a deal faster than a British passport, so you may well find that a lot of people, like myself, leave things to the last minute and their passport is nearly expired.

Sammy obviously hasn't applied for an Irish passport. I got my British passport within two weeks. It took at least 12 weeks for my Irish passport due to the overwhelming demand.

Bigchoc
Its doable, that is for sure.
But while the people of the north vote for the two extreme parties rather than the more moderate ones, its still a pipe dream.
And the mess at Westminster is really not helping.

I see that the EU has decided to sit and watch for a few days.
Don't blame them.

I'm certainly not advocating a UNited Ireland within the next few years, 30-40 years would be better imo,
but the question of financial support & investment is definitely no roadblock

Re Passport applications - the De Souza case is pertinent
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50041729

listening If the demographics change sufficiently, then under the GFA the NI SoS must call a referendum
and if NI vote yes then Ireland is required to hold their ref too.

The process of integrating a United ireland would be much smoother if voters choose more moderate parties over the next couple of decades,
BUT it won't stop the ref

• the GFA just talks about numbers, not that voters must be moderate first

Indeed

But for now, bellini has got her way and the border is in the sea.
Northern Ireland will get the sunlit uplands BINO
and the rest of us will get the proper, leave the Single market Brexit
What could possibly go wrong