Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

Once we Brexit, if we do, Labour's policy strategy will change completely to domestic issues plus climate change
Corbyn will step down if he doesn't win this GE, possibly even if Labour is only the largest party

The LDems will also need to rethink - maybe thinking longterm to Rejoin, but putting it on the back burner util the Brexit outcome is clearer

Well my MIL was old enough to do war work in a munitions factory and then an aircraft factory, and missed the call up because she was married. She's 96.

Anyone to have actually been involved in the war must now be at least 92.

fluffy It's like religious faith
which turns some - not all - intelligent, educated people into fantasising fools,
because faith can switch off their cognitive processes and switch on their deepest emotions

(I'm thinking of some in my late mum's congregation
and "if you don't believe in Jesus you are going to HELL !", proclaimed with much saliva and no evidence)

My father was only just too young to fight in WW2 and I'm 55. Remember men can and do father children late.

It sounds extraordinary, but there were children of US civil war veterans stil alive in 2017 (and there might still be a few left).

She's appears to have her ERG MP as a pen pal too, which hasn't helped.

She actually used to be uber religious (and very judgmental), so I suppose this fits her personality really.

I've no idea what dad thinks. Probably keeps schtum to have a quiet life! 😂

If a brexit deal gets done, what happens to the lib dem vote? I mean they have basically no other policies. I hear a lot of speculation about how if johnson gets a deal UKIP will become irrelevant and thus tories will profit, but won't the same happen to lib dems?

genuine question, I find it all very confusing

People who say that we "only" joined the Common Market in 1973 (and what it was then) but not what the the EU has become should re-read the Treaty of Rome which was the initial founding treaty in 1957 .

Everything that has happened since then was outlined as an objective right from the outset .....as Heath pointed out before the 1975 Referendum

https://www.ab.gov.tr/files/ardb/evt/1avrupabirligi/13antlasmalar/131kurucuantlasmalar/1957treatyestablishing_eec.pdf

They'll also have to focus on domestic policy. And perhaps a re-admission campaign?

mistigri
fun numbers for you
www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-08-08/civil-war-vets-pension-still-remains-on-governments-payroll-151-years-after-last-shot-fired

The big issue here chocfrenzy and one that is completely being ignored is that a lot of people in ROI don't want a United Ireland neither do most nationalist in NI.

I disagree Viola. In fact there are many Unionists, not DUP, who are now thinking that perhaps a return to Ireland on the Island of Ireland as it once was, is the best way to progress. It is not being ignored at all.

squid
By the same token, what are the other policies of the Brexit party ?

squid4 UKIP is already irrelevant.

If a People's Vote happens, as I suspect it will, then the Tories will lose out to The Brexit Party.

I think most nationalists would love reunification. They have long memories.

For those who think the LibDems are just about Remain, here is a link to their manifesto.

www.libdems.org.uk/manifesto

The big issue here chocfrenzy and one that is completely being ignored is that a lot of people in ROI don't want a United Ireland neither do most nationalist in NI.

However, reuniting Ireland would at least stop the RoI having to suffer the ill effects of UK decision making again ... and again ... and again.

If a People's Vote happens, as I suspect it will, then the Tories will lose out to The Brexit Party.

I don't see how they will be able to. There isn't likely to be a question saying 'Do you support the Brexit party to Leave the EU?'

Ahhhh, UKIP
www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/19/ukip-attempts-to-suspend-leader-amid-fresh-power-struggle-within-party-richard-braine

Re Northern Ireland .....
Sinn Fein might want a United Ireland
but a lot of Irish people think that the North is a basket case that they do not fancy propping up for decades and billions of Euros
The divorce settlement they would want from the British to take it on would make the EU bill look like a taxi tip

A lot of my generation had older parents, precisely because they fought in the war. My father didn't come home from India until 1946 and there is a ten year gap between my sister and I. The same is true for lots of my friends.

"squid
By the same token, what are the other policies of the Brexit party ?"

Well yeah. They have nothing.

I'm in such a confused place, I don't want a damaging brexit (I would accept a soft one and have been accepting of that for quite a long time, years actually) but if the brexit party became irrelevant and the lib dems became irrelevant, and the tories are psychos who have nothing left but their demonstrably failed capitalism... and labour's manifesto is full of stuff that despite the media slander people actually really like and can see is sensible... and we live in changing times where, say, climate is no.1 concern in this country now, and tories have nothing on that whatsoever (because their money is all wrapped up in fossil fuels).

I don't really understand why the tories would win anything after a brexit deal is done. Maybe immediately after, with the papers crowing it like some sort of triumph. But what do they possibly have to offer?

I'm no political mastermind like some on here,I'm confused on this point - why people seem to think a tory win is such a dead cert. Polls depress me, but they certainly haven't seemed to have reflected reality recently, and a number of friends have shown me who pays for them. In my line of work, studies are invalidated if done by people who stand to profit off them. First question you ask.

sorry... by UKIP I mean brexit party... excuse my nigth shift brain

Pretty Heath in his "Fanfare for Europe" (see photo) after we joined proclaimed that
"the community we are joining is far more than a common market" and described many of the other areas where the members would work together

The 1975 referendum was the first time I was able to vote and I remember both sides talking about "ever closer union"
It was publicised, not hidden

I actively wanted - and still do - a United States of Europe

The further integration and developments are only a surprise to those who weren't paying attention when they decided how to vote.

The papers at that time, especially the Tory tabloids, were in favour of Remain

The people now complaining they were tricked, were those who unthinkingly went along with the Tory tribe to make a major decision that affected the UK for decades
Now they've done the same thing again 🤦🏻‍♀️

Think GOV saying about triggering yellowhammer now is way of pushing mp to vote for a deal or look at what you are risking

I think people in the North look to the ROI as a bit of a basket case too, desperate to be liked. I'm sure the reality is somewhat different.

There are Irish people in the 'North' ListeningQuietly Quite frankly, your post is offensive. 'Basket case' is a disablist comment.