Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

I think it also plays to the authoritarian mindset Red talks about.

The messaging I've seen definitely does.

It invites readers to inhabit a fantasy personae, where they are outraged at their wish not being immediately enacted.

My analogy (the idea of someone smashing up their car to make a point to another driver who had frustrated them) sorry of sums up the emotions.

But it's this authoritarian mind-set that is at the base of it.

And, of course, it hits the brain at the location of impulse and emotion, rather than reason and analysis.

Anyway, tl:dr the UK is going to get pretty unpleasant, pretty soon.

🤷‍♀️

It's hard to watch the documentary and think that state sanctioned slavery isn't a part of the American system even today.

Prisons have to turn a profit, don'cha know ?

Yes. The EU is set up to hold extreme movements in member states in check.

As the UK is on course to discover the hard way.

Where is Johnson?
Looking for a suitable ditch somewhere?

Funny to think that there was a strong Victorian narrative of women being impulsive and men being reasoned

By my calculation, We now cannot leave on 31 October with a deal

because logistically, EP approval is now no longer possible in time

Unless the EU refuse extension, we cannot No Deal either

So we'll be staying in for a while

If you genuinely think Speaker Bercow has been entirely neutral, I think we can just agree to disagree for now on that point.

I don't have any problem with compromise, I'm willing to compromise, a lot, on an outcome I want to see, to get something that is acceptable to the widest range of viewpoints.

I do have a problem when our elected representatives hand decision making power to the electorate regarding our membership of the EU and then disregard the outcome that process produces.

On your points about exec overreach and authoritarians in Parliament.

I am in no doubt that the exec has tried to overreach in some circumstances, hence I was pleased Gina Millar won her case regarding Art 50, that should always have been Parliament's decision.

The point about a parliamentary majority in all ordinary circumstances would be entirely right, but the problem with these unique circumstances is this....

Parliament chose to remit this decision to a direct democratic exercise. Having done that (they could have chosen not to) the precise make up of Parliament now is pretty irrelevant as far as I am concerned. The legitimacy of the process by which Brexit is delivered upon is found in Parliament, but the legitimacy from which the decision to "Leave" flows is found in the Referendum result.

On authoritarians and liberals. I am pretty despairing of what the Conservative party seems to be becoming, mostly because I don't think it will serve the Party's long term interests. You suggest authoritarians don't want to seek compromise and liberals do, I'd suggest that the number of committed authoritarians in the HoC (like the ERG for example) is really quite small, and if the liberals came up with a meaningful compromise they would outnumber them by miles.

The problem with that is another division, between those Parliamentarians who will accept the outcome of a direct democratic outcome when it conflicts with their wishes, and those who will not. I've heard lots and lots about how Brexit is "hard" for Parliamentarians, and I honestly find all the hand wringing really hard to watch.

Yes, Autumn. I'd say that was a successful piece of propaganda! 😁

Slavery is not abolished and specifically permitted by the US Constitution, whose 13th Amendment declares:

Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States...

I suspect the January deadline mentioned up-thread is likely.

And the EU are talking about a three month extension, so that would fit.

Though, who knows what kind of unworkable chaos might be revealed in the nitty-gritty of the WA?

If this deal goes through without the transition drop out problem being sorted, we'll need a GE before the July deadline for extension request.

Labour needs to ditch Corbyn as soon as the WA is signed so they're ready to go for the GE early next year.

Why is BoZo trying to rush this through? He knows the EU won't be ready on 31 Oct, so why not just take their time? Fucking idiots. (I suppose it's to say 'Well, we were ready, it's the EU's fault we haven't left.' Forgetting that they wasted 5 months of the extension.)

Parliament chose to remit this decision to a direct democratic exercise. Having done that (they could have chosen not to) the precise make up of Parliament now is pretty irrelevant as far as I am concerned. The legitimacy of the process by which Brexit is delivered upon is found in Parliament, but the legitimacy from which the decision to "Leave" flows is found in the Referendum result.

You are still saying - however obliquely - that MPs are somehow bound by the referendum result. They're not, and never were. And unless we have an explicit shift in the entire foundation of what is left of our democracy, they never will be either ....

Or rather, if they were, then by that logic, I should have voted UKIP in the 2017 election because of "the will of the people". Which I chose not to.

If you want to blame anyone, blame the voters in 2017 for not only not voting for a majority government to implement Brexit, but for daring to remove the majority of a government that - had it been left in place - could have easily delivered Brexit.

Bloody voters, eh ? If only there was a way to eliminate them from the equation ....

I can find no words to express my contempt for Rees-Smugg. He is simply emetic.

Thanks DGR. Again we can disagree on the legitimacy and force of the referendum, people persist in believing it to be no more than a big opinion poll.

I'd be interested to know of another example of direct democracy in the UK where the result of that exercise was not enacted according the rules laid down before it happened though, can't think of any?

Voters in 2017 overwhelmingly backed Labour and the Conservatives, both of whom committed themselves in the election campaign to delivering the result. In neither case have they yet been successful.

Louise, the problem you point out with the opposition centres around the authoritarian tenancies within the opposition at the moment.

The Liberal Democrats have, as the culture war has ramped up, become a lot more authoritarian in several areas (not just Brexit) as they interpretate a particular identity as liberal (in reality its a set of very subscribed beliefs and values from which you can't deviate or question - the definition of authoritarian).

It's not all LDs and it's not just the LDs guilty of the same thing.

But its part of the problem.

Bercow sided with the Tory rebels more than the opposition hardliners...

Yes, Fluffy, about the need for a transition extension request.

Will it mean a GE then? Who knows. 🤷‍♀️

As for Labour changing Leader before a GE ... no. That's been ruled out. Which I find ... saddening.

....I'd say enematic, the product of fluids forced up a rectum.

Louise It is a fundamental principle of the UK Constitution that
the decisions of a Parliament / PM are not binding on its successors (unless via an intenational treaty)

So even if one Parliament granted a referendum - which was deliberately made advisory only - there is no obligation on the next Parliament

Regardless of party policy, all the individual MPs are required to use their own judgement, not blindly follow a party manifesto

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmselect/cmmodern/337/33706.htm

"'The first duty of a member of Parliament is to do what he thinks in his faithful and disinterested judgement is right and necessary for the honour and safety of Great Britain.
His second duty is to his constituents, of whom he is the representative but not the delegate."

It is also a fundamental part of our system that the Opposition opposes govt policy,
unless there is an emergency and hence cross-party working

The Tories - even as a minority govt - have always tried to force the Opposition to accept the particular form of Brexit designed to pacify its own extreme wingnutters, the ERG.
Even the Tory moderates, probably 100+ MPs, are unhappy about the form of Brexit, although tribalism means most will still vote for it.

If the Tories had consulted with Labour after such a narrow Leave victory and compromised on a soft Brexit, protecting workers rights and trade etc,
then we would have Brexited many months ago

Hi folks, just dropping back into the Brexit boards again - very good news that the "meaningful vote" has been blocked today! Can anyone tell me in a nutshell what this means for Brexit - is it likely to be delayed for a number of months now and does this mean we could have a second referendum and/or a GE?

I've decided to hope for smaller victories. Like Johnson having to resign (actually that's quite big). That would make me very happy. Now I've said it out loud it won't happen.

"I'd be interested to know of another example of direct democracy in the UK where the result of that exercise was not enacted according the rules laid down before it happened though "

The referendum bill was very specific that the ref would be advisory only

which "by the rules" meant that Parliament would then decide whether to implement it

Cameron, as PM, told voters he'd implement it, but a political promise has no legal basis

• and that was officially decided in a court case brought against iirc BJ some time ago, which he won.

Certainly no successor was obliged in any way to keep the verbal promise of Cameron

No PM has ever been bound by a predecessor's promise on anything

@wondering7777

I, personally, am a bit bleak.

I think the signs today suggest the awful WAB (& consequently they WA) will pass. That suggests we might exit around January ....

And amendments for CU and PV look set to fail.

Interested to hear what others think.

Ideally people who aren't as bleak as me.

I agree with red analysis. Her explanation is much clearer than mine but tbh I think this has been a long time coming.

The question is what sort of impact an authoritarian regime Like that will have on the U.K. The USA are big enough to have a bit of a buffer. The U.K. doesn’t.

Oh no - which signs @thecatfromjapan?

And amendments for CU and PV look set to fail.

Ugh, really?

If Brexit is delayed until January, what do you think the chances are of Labour calling a VoNC and a general election before Jan?