Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

Hearing that Boris to offer MPs vote on FTA negotiating mandate with specific vote on customs union.

Who'd believe him ?

But if Brexit doesn't happen (some hope) its mostly because the government(s) and Tory party have done it so badly. Despite what the papers tell us. First Cameron by running off, then Theresa May and now Johnson.

If Theresa May hadn't been so rubbish with her 2017 general election calling and subsequent campaign....

So what the speaker has done today is nothing in the scheme of things.

I actually think what is worse from their POV from now on is maintaining the pretence that we will be Leaving by October 31st, that seems to me totally unrealistic now timetable wise. Again however, it serves a narrative, as all sides in this debate are trying to do.

Indeed.

I am reasonably confident that we won't leave on 31st October, because BOTH the UK and the EU won't be able to get the technicalities done by then.

Thus the EU MUST grant some sort of extension if they want a deal (which they do).

Since the Benn Act specifies Jan 31st that would be the safest option, for the EU as the Uk government in law have to accept this if offered. So there cant be any more issues over this extension offer.

Its not certain yet, but it is now highly likely.

Marsha - for the moment it can't come back. But instead the government is bringing forward the long withheld Withdrawal Act (Implementation) Bill for scrutiny which should be interesting

Thanks prettybird interesting

It’s like extracting a root canal. I’m going to be very happy when/if they finally approve the new WA.

Andrew Percy is a big chap isn't he?
Mr Peter Bone brush your hair (I've told you before)

So, the Bill is going to read tonight (is that literal-someone will stand there reading it out loud?) and then what happens?

Is it likely the contents will be controversial and surprise MPs (and us?)?

Might it cause people to decide against voting for the deal when they were all set to vote FOR it?

We could be out on Halloween, but not without the BJ deal getting amended.

Nissan were give assurances by TM that we would stay in the SM.

Firstly: Boris has made it quite clear that this is not her government, and not bound by any undertakings given in the past. Which has already been understood loud and clear by those that need to understand such things ...

Secondly: as a people, the Japanese are not given to instant decision making, nor action, so are unlikely to respond immediately. However they tend not to backtrack either, once a decision is made (note upthread about the need to bomb them twice in 1945).

So I can't see anything dramatic happening anytime soon.

You say you don't have confidence it will, Louise - despite all evidence to the contrary.

I have noticed this is a thing - you are not the only Leaver who thinks that.

I watched an interview with a Cornish fisherman who said the same, and said he was resigned to Leave failing: 'the government never listens to people like us,' he said.

And I was baffled.

Because it so evidently is not true.

And I realised something.

A lot of the Leave messaging pushes that message of Brexit being frustrated by Remainers, its being in jeopardy, its unlikeliness of winning.

Why?

It's to get Leavers to concentrate on feelings of frustration rather than analysing what it is you've won.

Honestly, you need to drop the feeling of losing - and start accepting Brexit is going to happen.

We will have the WA in effect in months - and will be. Shunning a decade of further trade negotiations.

This WA is also pretty scratchy - it has a load of messy bits (look at the NI trade regulations for a start, of the copyright law that's been linked to on here / that's the tip of the iceberg). It's going to be fairly chaotic in a few months time.

And there will be regular breaks in trade negotiations to beg the EU to extend the WA, too, or risk Not Deal' chaos.

So, you need to start thinking about that - not Remainers and saboteurs and traitors holding up Brexit.

Because it's happening.

And it will affect you.

Letwin passing meant there was no division held yesterday, the vote was due to be held today, as announced yesterday afternoon. I've honesty been in no doubt whatever that Speaker Bercow would prevent it from being held.

No, it went through 'on the nod'. A little like e.g. when there is a council election and only one candidate stands - that person is elected without a vote being held. We don't say that it's not fair, we should rerun it a second time.

'It will begin a decade of trade negotiations' not 'shunning'.

Honestly, if I have to spend from now until Christmas knowing the WA is going to happen whilst listening to Leavers going on about how Remainers are 'frustrating Brexit', I might well lose my mind.

Boris has made it quite clear that this is not her government, and not bound by any undertakings given in the past

Has he said that?? Yet the whole country's bound by Cameron's promises? Pffffftt.

What happens if the WAIB doesn't pass? Or will it be battled out until it dies with tweaks here and there until satisfactory?

So has anyone said where Johnson actually is? I noticed Stephen Barclay studiously avoided saying. Did he not even bother to turn up at the beginning?

The only way to stop Leavers fighting each other, is to point them at a distraction. Otherwise it becomes apparently pretty quickly that despite strong protests to the contrary, most Leavers still don't know what "Leave" means.

Even on this thread, the few Leavers that post aren't in agreement about what success looks like beyond "leaving". Nothing about what trade deals need to be done with what countries, what standards bodies the UK will need to institute and what bodies it can join as an independent country. Not a squeak about how to move away from current (and still binding) obligations to EU bodies about things like data protection, national security beyond "it'll all be fine".

17 million different versions.

2 more things if I may. 1.) I don't think it reflects well on the Speaker either. For our Parliamentary system to work, the neutrality of the Speaker, who acts as the "referee" must be beyond question. I think it is incredibly difficult to make a good case that Speaker Bercow is not being partisan in the way he applies his discretion (or doesn't.)

I generally think, that Bercow honestly does this.

The problem is that the executive has tried to over play its hand repeatedly over the last three years by trying to cut parliament out of the equation by trying to act unilaterally.

You can see this in May's attempt to trigger a50 without parliament.

Both her and Johnson have acted beyond the limits of their power and had the courts rule on this.

This is ultimately going to be frustrating for anyone with an authoritarian mindset, because they want to just do things rather than be forced to compromise (which is what liberalism is in essence based upon). The authoritarian mindset is precisely to control things and get things done with an authority figure who has the power to make decisions without consultation.

You can hear this in the spoke desire to 'have a strong leader' and all this stuff about the force of Johnson's personality.

The reality is that our system is a parliamentary democracy which is based on compromise.

You then throw the decision to have a GE and the loss of a majority which has only compounded authoritarian frustration in not just being able to 'get on with it'. Bercow simply become the visible manifestation of the fact this is a minority government.

Parliament's job is to come to an agreed position where there is a majority and if there isn't one, to come to a compromise in certain areas where there is disagreement through the amendment process. In this sense is merely doing his job and he was always going to be more visible in any situation where there wasn't an obvious majority over a time pressured policy which Brexit became after a50 was trigger. (again this could have been avoided if there hadn't been this self harming act of triggering a50 without knowing what the fuck we were doing).

The optic problem we see playing out in the press is merely about how cultural difference in the culture war are aligning with political parties, with authoritarians in government and a more liberal approach on the opposition benches (I note here that the opposition benches are NOT only populated by liberals there are also many authoritarians on the opposition benches).

The Tory Rebels who were thrown out of the party were the ones on the government benches who didn't have this authoritarian mindset and see value and importance in the process of parliament. Ultimately most of them look like they will vote for the deal with the government - the point being that they wanted to defend parliament. These MPs will largely be gone in any new parliament and that is a worry in itself.

I suspect the next speaker will face even greater pressures to stop the executive acting beyond its power if Johnson does win a majority as parliament will not be able to hold him to account. The only option then would be through the courts.

And of course with a majority and a party behind him with full on authoritarian mindset, can simply rip up the court system and dismantle the pillar of justice which upholds the democratic system in this country.

Thus the executive will indeed 'take back control', but that will not be for the people. That will be unchecked power that can not be held to account in which corruption will flourish and abuses of power against the people by the state can prevail.

The Human Rights Act will be toast and there will be no more protection from European Law. Even the ECHR will be weak in its ability to rule on cases in the UK.

That is where everything is going. Some of us were aware of this pre-ref. What has played out since has only served to prove the point in its various ways.

What happens if the whole WA doesn't pass??

Yes. Red.

The whole leavers believing leave won't happen is being propagated to make leavers so relieved when it does happen they won't notice it's all shit segue into that's because remainers/eu/parliament/the elite made it so.

Goodness, Red - that all sounds very plausible.

No wonder I'm depressed!

Hasenstein, if you want a good idea of what happens next look to the US.

Simon Reeve's American series (episode 2) takes a look at how poverty is effectively criminalised and monetised.

So far in this country we've had poverty demonised and people falling through the cracks.

In the US this has been in effect commercialised.

It's hard to watch the documentary and think that state sanctioned slavery isn't a part of the American system even today.

Brexit would start to enable a similar process here.