Westminstenders: Extension or No Extension

[RedToothBrush]

Johnson has sent a letter he said he never would asking for an extension.

We now wait to see what the EU come back with.

It's likely to be a technical extension. At best.

France are really not happy with the idea of an extension and Macron is flexing his muscles with the EU at the moment. He has been prepared to upset all the other EU countries as he proved with blocking progress on accession to the EU for Northern Macedonia and Albania this week. Macron is fighting his own domestic battles.

It looks as if Johnson now has a majority for a deal. What that deal will ultimately look like will be dictated by the Withdrawal Agreement Bill which sets out implementation of the Withdrawal Act.

However, with the DUP firmly offside the chances of a vote of no confidence go up. As do the chances of an election.

And its also worth pointing out that whilst the WAB is legally binding if we have an election and Johnson gets a majority, then there can always be changes made to domestic law. (implementation of the WA rather than the agreement principles of the WA agreed with the EU).

Thus any 'assurances' over workers rights and regulatory standards are only as good as long as this parliament...

Hadn't registered that BJ hasn't even had the courtesy of showing up in the HoC

I'm just going to say it again: how the fuck is the UK going to pay for the NHS when it has destroyed it's major contributor to the economy (services)? And how is it a Conservative government that has done that?

Ginormous arse that he is. He's probably in a huddle with Cummings working out their next master stroke of strategy to get the general election result they desire.

Cummings doesn't deal with persuading parliament. He deals with persuading voters.

The thing here is that the government KNEW that Bercow had previously ruled that a motion could not be brought back to the house in the same session if it was in substance the same motion. He made this decision in March.

Given that the government should have KNOWN the implications of 'nodding' Saturday's vote through. Because that would be being competent and being aware of how parliament works.

Blaming the Speaker for being consistent in his ruling, is a bit of a stretch and is a complete abdication of responsibility for taking that decision on Saturday.

The government didn't want to go through with the vote on Sat because of pride and because they were politically posturing that they did not support the Letwin Amendment because it forced an extension. It did not want to be seen to be supporting Letwin.

That was a political decision. They can't just pretend they didn't make that decision.

Louise I appreciate your position, but I'd like to know why you think the government somehow forgot what happened in March? If a government is being duly diligent they should have forseen this. Thats the problem...

We either have to believe that the government failed in their due dilligence. Or we believe they know what they are doing and are competent over Brexit. And if its the latter then this saga currently going on in the Commons has nothing to do with Bercow being biased.

If we believe the government is competent then we are forced to believe that this in a deliberately orchestred scene because they know it works for them in constructing a parliament v the people narrative for the GE and it WASN'T an oversight to nod through ignorantly on Saturday naively unaware that todays debate wouldn't be allowed.

Thats would be a fundamentally dishonest thing to do. That would be merely about optics and manipulating the situation.

The reality is it has to be one or the other. Neither particularly reflects well on the government.

Barclay officially confirms the letter has been sent and has been accepted.

Other sources confirm the stuff about sending an 'old photcopy' were raw meat for the Brexy Tabs and entirely false.

Who thinks the government has the slightest interest in whether this deal passes? It's about the people vs parliament false concept to win the general election. Nothing else matters. This is why Cummings was hired imo.

Maybe I should have said Johnson rather than government above.

Phew, that's a relief ...
I was getting quite concerned there for a while that poster00 and I kept agreeing on things ! 😂

At least we can look forward to Cummings going off for his (supposedly quite serious) op after 31st October.

He's promised his wife - and of course, we know that the current government and those that work with it always follow through on their promises

"I am reassured that - despite his pledge - [Boris Johnson] is not to be found in a ditch"

we can look forward to Cummings going off for his (supposedly quite serious) op after 31st October

Is he having an arsehole transplant?

(Could be dangerous if the arsehole rejects im.)

BCF at last some normality, get thee away from me centrist

Who thinks the government has the slightest interest in whether this deal passes? It's about the people vs parliament false concept to win the general election. Nothing else matters. This is why Cummings was hired imo.*

tobee I agree. Passing this is secondary to the GE.
The content* of this deal is secondary to a GE (which should worry everyons^).

Sadly, despite all those red flags, I think it may actually pass.

Which is insane.

It's like a last dose of mania: MPs passing a terrible deal, which will affect the UK for decades, sight unseen, largely because they felt ground down and weary.

And passed for a Leader who is a known opportunist and liar.

It's so awful.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Remember CRAG? It's a fresh headache for the Govt's bid to pass the Brexit deal by October 31. The Constitutional Reform and Governance Act (2010) requires any treaty be laid before the House for 21 days before it can be ratified. The Brexit deal is such as treaty 1.

The Govt accept this, so I learn there is a clause in the WAB that specifically dis-applies it from the Brexit deal. So 21 days will be shrunk to less than 1 day. The bill will be published tonight, and ratification will begin with 2nd reading tomorrow afternoon 2.

The Commons are unlikely to block the bill on this point, but I'm told the Govt is a little more worried about how the Lords will take it, who are "bound to kick up rough" about it, according to one Tory peer, being sticklers for these kind of things 3.

[RTB: this looks like fodder for a amendment...]

Redwood's contribution re wanting to see the detail of the FTA (and praise for the Speaker for avoiding Groundhog Day) demonstrates how BJ is promising all things to all MPs: the ERG and bonfire-of-the-regulations FTAs, while reassuring the stupid Labour MPs like Flint and Nandy that workers' rights and regulations will be maintained.

Bernard Jenkins is throwing toys out pram as he is in UKIP area North /Essex especially Clacton and Harwich and if GE he likely face strong competition from Brexit party .Neither float my boat

Don't get nervous, Poster, but we still agree that NO Labour MP - or any left or centrist MP - should be voting for a WA that lets the Tories slash workers' rights, consumer rights, environmental regs
and lets US Big Pharma profiteer at the expense of the NHS

Mujtaba Rahman @Mij_Europe
Hearing that Boris to offer MPs vote on FTA negotiating mandate with specific vote on customs union. Message: ”If you are genuinely not trying to stop Brexit, support my deal & Bill & you’ll get the chance to vote on a customs union later.” Could sway some Lab & ex-Tory votes 1/2

Right now think @BorisJohnson has majority for his deal in 2nd reading of WAB tomorrow; don't think there's majority for CU (or 2nd Ref) amendment, though CU will be close. So good chance BJ can wrap up Bill this side of Xmas; even more so if he wins 2nd reading vote tomorrow 2/2

Thanks for that Red

I think some of the outrage is "manufactured" as, I admit, was a little of mine but mostly just to illustrate what I think those from the other side of this debate from most of the good folk on here will be thinking.

I am quite sure the government did not forget what happened in march, albeit its essentially a different government. They fell fould of clearly established rules. Creating the "optics" as you put it, is in my view unquestionably part of the government's calculation.

You may think this doesn't reflect well on the government. I actually think what is worse from their POV from now on is maintaining the pretence that we will be Leaving by October 31st, that seems to me totally unrealistic now timetable wise. Again however, it serves a narrative, as all sides in this debate are trying to do.

2 more things if I may. 1.) I don't think it reflects well on the Speaker either. For our Parliamentary system to work, the neutrality of the Speaker, who acts as the "referee" must be beyond question. I think it is incredibly difficult to make a good case that Speaker Bercow is not being partisan in the way he applies his discretion (or doesn't.)

and 2.) catfromjapan says to me "don't worry" and "Brexit will happen". I'm afraid I find it very, very difficult to have any confidence that it will.

On 29th March 2017 Article 50 notification was sent. From my POV we are no closer to leaving today than we were in April 2017 and that's 2 1/2 years ago. 2 deals put to Parliament, one rejected 3 times, a second not even voted on. I think Parliament has made absolutely no positive moves towards enacting Brexit in those 2 1/2 years. If it had given even indicative approval for some form of "Brexit" I might have more faith in the sincerity of its members, but right now, my confidence in them as a class is at rock bottom.

*’if you are genuinely not trying to stop Brexit, support my deal & Bill & you’ll get the chance to vote on a customs union later.”

The problem is, BJ is a liar-he could say anything and then change his mind.

So, assuming the bill passes ....
How long after that do the multinationals start announcing job cuts?

Nissan were give assurances by TM that we would stay in the SM.
Once the law passes will they pull the plug right away?
especially now that Japan has its FTA with the EU
7000 direct jobs, triple that in knock on

Thinking forwards:

When/if this deal passes, there will be a short economic up-turn as some investment held back due to uncertainty is unlocked.

Gird you're loins for lots of propaganda about his 'Project Fesr' was wrong.

Saw this shared by a friend on FB

(From HIGNFY)

Oh god more big day turns into damp squib day

When’s it back, can it come back